Predictions β†’ France Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 15:15 UTC+3 β€’ Round 8 β€’ Stadium Municipal β€’ β›… 18.7Β°C, 3 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 84% 58.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 77% 80.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 49.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 50.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 70% 11.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.6 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Toulouse 1.58 – 0.75 Estac Troyes Β· expected total 2.33

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Toulouse host Estac Troyes at the Stadium Municipal on Saturday with both clubs stuck in the wrong half of Ligue 1 early on. Toulouse sit 13th on 6 points from 6 games, while Troyes are 16th with 4 points from 5, so this is a fixture where the home side can create real breathing room and the visitors are desperate to stop the slide.

The model leans clearly toward the hosts. Toulouse's recent form reads DLWDL, Troyes arrive on LLLWD, and the expected goals split is telling: 1.6144 for the home side against just 0.7626 for the away team. Recent shot quality backs that up, with Toulouse at 1.83 xG and Troyes at 1.33. Both squads are badly hit by injuries, with seven names out for Toulouse and eight for Troyes, which adds noise to any read on team shape.

The headline tip is a home win at 59.3 percent, with confidence at 85, and the double chance 1X is rated at 80.6 percent. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 carries 50 percent and BTTS No 49.5 percent, so the 1-0 correct score at 11.4 percent fits the low-scoring script. Corners offer a separate angle, with Over 9.5 at 54.4 percent against an expected 10.6. The value question is whether bookmakers price the home win shorter than 59.3 percent implies; if they do, the double chance or the unders become the smarter route.

The honest caveat is that both teams are missing large chunks of their squads, and Toulouse's own form is patchy at best, so the model's edge could shrink if the lineups shift late.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Toulouse

Form (last 5)
DMonaco (A) 2–2 Β· 10/10/2026LPAU (H) 2–3 Β· 03/10/2026WLe Havre (H) 3–2 Β· 19/09/2026DLorient (A) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026LLille (H) 0–1 Β· 03/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.48
xG against (recent avg)1.47
Elo strength rating1500
Players out7

Estac Troyes

Form (last 5)
LAngers (A) 0–2 Β· 19/09/2026LLille (A) 0–2 Β· 13/09/2026LStrasbourg (H) 2–6 Β· 06/09/2026WLorient (A) 2–1 Β· 29/08/2026DParis FC (H) 0–0 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)2.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.33
xG against (recent avg)2.02
Elo strength rating1323
Players out8
ToulouseEstac Troyes
LAngers (A) 0–2 Β· 19/09/2026LLille (A) 0–2 Β· 13/09/2026LStrasbourg (H) 2–6 Β· 06/09/2026WLorient (A) 2–1 Β· 29/08/2026DParis FC (H) 0–0 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.80
2.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.48
1.33
xG against (recent avg)
1.47
2.02
Elo strength rating
1500
1323
Players out
7
8

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Toulouse

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Estac Troyes

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Ligue 1

Toulouse

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Estac Troyes

2nd worst defence (2.20 conceded/game) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (33%)

Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Toulouse at home Β· Estac Troyes away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Toulouse (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–2L
W 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Estac Troyes (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–2L
W 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Toulouse (home)Estac Troyes (away)
W 1
L 2
W 1
L 2
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
1.70
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
2
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
11.7%
2–0
10%
2–1
7.5%
3–0
5.2%
3–1
3.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Estac Troyes 0 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Toulouse 6 wins Β· avg 2.6 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

4
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
01 Feb 2023 Toulouse 4–1 Estac Troyes Ligue 1
14 Aug 2022 Estac Troyes 0–3 Toulouse Ligue 1
09 Jul 2022 Toulouse 6–1 Estac Troyes Friendlies Clubs
06 Feb 2021 Estac Troyes 1–1 Toulouse Ligue 2
03 Oct 2020 Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes Ligue 2
27 Jan 2018 Toulouse 1–0 Estac Troyes Ligue 1
09 Sep 2017 Estac Troyes 0–0 Toulouse Ligue 1
07 May 2016 Toulouse 1–0 Estac Troyes Ligue 1
02 Dec 2015 Estac Troyes 0–3 Toulouse Ligue 1
16 Feb 2013 Toulouse 2–2 Estac Troyes Ligue 1

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Toulouse

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Monaco Away 2–2 D
03/10 PAU Home 2–3 L
19/09 Le Havre Home 3–2 W
12/09 Lorient Away 2–2 D
03/09 Lille Home 0–1 L

Estac Troyes

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Angers Away 0–2 L
13/09 Lille Away 0–2 L
06/09 Strasbourg Home 2–6 L
29/08 Lorient Away 2–1 W
22/08 Paris FC Home 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Ligue 1

Toulouse #15 Β· 6 pts β€”  Estac Troyes #17 Β· 4 pts

Toulouse

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–2L
W 1
D 3
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards10
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.48
xG against (avg)1.47
Corners for (avg)4.70
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Estac Troyes

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–4L
W 1
D 1
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.20
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards5
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.33
xG against (avg)2.02
Corners for (avg)8.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
ToulouseEstac Troyes
W 1
D 3
L 2
W 1
D 1
L 4
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
2.20
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
2
3
Yellow cards
10
5
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.48
1.33
xG against (avg)
1.47
2.02
Corners for (avg)
4.70
8.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Toulouse

0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
1
scored conceded

Estac Troyes

0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Toulouse

  • ❌ A. Donnum β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ A. Francis β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Vossah β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Y. Gboho β€” Transfer negotiations
  • ❌ R. Nicolaisen β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ G. Restes β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Vignolo β€” Inactive

Estac Troyes

  • ❌ I. Boura β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Fatah β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Y. Titi β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Gozzi β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Ifnaoui β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ A. Phliponeau β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Y. Kone β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Ouzenadji β€” Injury

More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws