Lille vs Le Havre
Next match: Sat, 10 Oct 2026 β’ 15:15 UTC+3 β’ Round 6 β’ Stade Pierre-Mauroy
π§ Match Preview
The model leans heavily on the gap in quality. Lille's recent expected goals sit at 1.26, but their match projection rises to 1.704, while Le Havre's recent xG of 1.21 collapses to a projected 0.597 away from home. Form backs that up: Lille have gone LWLWD, Le Havre LDLDL. Both squads are depleted, with six Lille names missing including B. Andre, and eight absent for Le Havre.
The headline tip is a home win at 66.8% with 88 confidence, and the double chance 1X lands at 87.7%. For goals, Under 2.5 carries 49.9% and BTTS No 50.4% β both near coin-flips, so the value may hide in the correct score. A 1-0 is the model's pick at 13.4%, with 1-0 leading the top scores at 16.08, ahead of 2-0 at 14.57 and 2-1 at 8.7. Corners point Under 9.5 at 59%, with an expected 8.4.
The honest caveat: Lille's own recent xG of 1.26 is modest, and the head-to-head shows Le Havre won 1-2 here in February 2025 and drew 1-1 last May. A low-scoring home win is the call, but this fixture has bitten before.
Updated 21 Sep 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 88% | 66.8% | β |
| Double Chance | 1X | 83% | 87.7% | β |
| BTTS | No | 82% | 50.4% | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81% | 49.9% | β |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 73% | 13.4% | β |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.4 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 69% | 59% | β |
β½ Model expected goals: Lille 1.70 β 0.60 Le Havre Β· expected total 2.30
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time.
π What Drives the Prediction
| Factor | Le Havre | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5) | LToulouse (A) 2β3 Β· 19/09/2026DAngers (H) 0β0 Β· 12/09/2026LStade Brestois 29 (H) 1β2 Β· 05/09/2026DLyon (A) 1β1 Β· 29/08/2026LMonaco (H) 0β1 Β· 23/08/2026 | LNice (A) 1β2 Β· 20/09/2026WEstac Troyes (H) 2β0 Β· 13/09/2026LReal Betis (H) 2β3 Β· 08/09/2026WToulouse (A) 1β0 Β· 03/09/2026DParis Saint Germain (H) 2β2 Β· 28/08/2026 |
| Goals scored (season avg) | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded (season avg) | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Win streak (best this season) | 0 | 2 |
| xG for (recent avg) | 1.21 | 0.74 |
| xG against (recent avg) | 1.91 | 0.99 |
| Elo strength rating | 1372.3 | 1648.6 |
| Players out | 8 | 6 |
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish β into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Le Havre
Lille
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Ligue 1
Le Havre
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Lille
Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
| Lille (at home) | Le Havre (away) | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| WinsβDrawsβLosses | 1-1-0 | 0-1-1 |
| Goals scored (avg) | 2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1 | 2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road β the split that matters for this fixture.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1β0 | 13.4% |
| 2β0 | 12.1% |
| 2β1 | 7.3% |
| 3β0 | 6.9% |
| 3β1 | 4.1% |
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Le Havre 1 win Β· 1 draw Β· Lille 5 wins Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 7
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 2026 | Lille | 1β1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Le Havre | 0β1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Lille | 1β2 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Le Havre | 0β3 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Lille | 3β0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 01 Oct 2023 | Le Havre | 0β2 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 26 Jul 2023 | Lille | 3β2 | Le Havre | Friendlies Clubs |
π Recent Form
Le Havre
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Toulouse | Away | 2β3 | L |
| 12/09 | Angers | Home | 0β0 | D |
| 05/09 | Stade Brestois 29 | Home | 1β2 | L |
| 29/08 | Lyon | Away | 1β1 | D |
| 23/08 | Monaco | Home | 0β1 | L |
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Nice | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 13/09 | Estac Troyes | Home | 2β0 | W |
| 08/09 | Real Betis | Home | 2β3 | L |
| 03/09 | Toulouse | Away | 1β0 | W |
| 28/08 | Paris Saint Germain | Home | 2β2 | D |
π Season Comparison β Ligue 1
| Le Havre | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18 | 4 |
| Points | 2 | 10 |
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| WinsβDrawsβLosses | 0-2-3 | 3-1-1 |
| Goals scored (avg) | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded (avg) | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties (scored/missed) | 1/0 | 0/0 |
| Yellow cards | 8 | 6 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| xG for (avg) | 1.21 | 0.74 |
| xG against (avg) | 1.91 | 0.99 |
| Corners for (avg) | 5.5 | 1.6 |
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Le Havre
Lille
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Le Havre
- β F. Mambimbi β Injury
- β A. Toure β Knee Injury
- β S. Zagadou β Injury
- β P. Argney β Injury
- β L. Mpasi-Nzau β Injury
- β T. Pembele β Inactive
- β J. Mwanga β Red Card
- β R. Ndiaye β Groin Injury
Lille
- β B. Andre β Yellow Cards
- β M. Fernandez-Pardo β Yellow Cards
- β H. Igamane β Knee Injury
- β S. Diaoune β Inactive
- β T. Nianzou β Inactive
- β L. Srdanovic β Inactive
More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws