Le Mans vs Toulouse

Next match: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 • 18:45 UTC+3 • Round 7 • MMArena • ☁️ 12.5°C, 19 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away 2.34 → 2.45 ▲5%	74%	31.4%	2.45	1xBet	41.1%	-9.7 pp
Double Chance	12	67%	66.1%	1.34	1xBet	73.1%	-7 pp
BTTS	Yes	82%	50.7%	1.62	Bet365	58.7%	-8 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	80%	47.5%	2.12	1xBet	46.5%	+1 pp
Correct Score	0-1	63%	7.2%	9.50	Bet365	5.4%	+1.8 pp
Draw (value pick)	Draw	62%	27.3%	3.60	Betfair	26.9%	+0.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.6 exp.)	Under 9.5	63%	54%	1.67	Bet365	55.7%	-1.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Le Mans 1.26 – 0.94 Toulouse · expected total 2.20

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Le Mans host Toulouse at the MMArena on Friday night with both clubs stuck on 6 points from 6 games, sitting 12th and 13th respectively. It is early-season separation territory: win and breathe, lose and start glancing downward.

The model leans away. Toulouse take the match result tip at 33.1 percent, priced at 2.34, with a confidence reading of 75. The double chance covering draw or away lands at 66.6 percent, which is the safer route into this fixture. Form is modest on both sides: Le Mans arrive with LLWDD, Toulouse with DLWDL. The goal expectations are tight rather than explosive, with Le Mans at 1.2921 and Toulouse at 0.9683, though recent attacking numbers run hotter at 1.68 for the hosts and 1.83 for the visitors.

Both teams to score is tipped Yes at 51.1 percent, odds 1.62, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 47.2 percent, odds 1.84. The correct score leans 0-1 at 6.9 percent, with 0-1 the top listed score at 8.8. Corners point Under 9.5 at 54 percent, expected 8.6. The draw is separately flagged at 27.3 percent with a confidence of 62.

Value hunting: the away win at 2.34 against a 33.1 percent model read is roughly fair rather than generous, so the draw-or-away double chance at 66.6 percent is the more defensible angle. The honest caveat is the injury list, which is heavy on both sides, thirteen names for Le Mans and seven for Toulouse, and that kind of disruption can distort form and xG signals in either direction.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Le Mans

Form (last 5)

LParis Saint Germain (A) 1–3 · 10/10/2026LGuingamp (A) 1–2 · 02/10/2026WLorient (H) 2–1 · 19/09/2026 DLens (H) 2–2 · 13/09/2026 DNice (A) 1–1 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)2.00

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.68

xG against (recent avg)1.69

Elo strength rating1373

Players out13

Toulouse

Form (last 5)

DMonaco (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026LPAU (H) 2–3 · 03/10/2026WLe Havre (H) 3–2 · 19/09/2026 DLorient (A) 2–2 · 12/09/2026 LLille (H) 0–1 · 03/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.50

Goals conceded (season avg)1.80

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.48

xG against (recent avg)1.47

Elo strength rating1500

Players out7

Le MansToulouse

LParis Saint Germain (A) 1–3 · 10/10/2026LGuingamp (A) 1–2 · 02/10/2026WLorient (H) 2–1 · 19/09/2026 DLens (H) 2–2 · 13/09/2026 DNice (A) 1–1 · 05/09/2026

DMonaco (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026LPAU (H) 2–3 · 03/10/2026WLe Havre (H) 3–2 · 19/09/2026 DLorient (A) 2–2 · 12/09/2026 LLille (H) 0–1 · 03/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.70

1.50

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.00

1.80

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.68

1.48

xG against (recent avg)

1.69

1.47

Elo strength rating

1373

1500

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Le Mans

Lost 2 in a row

BTTS

6/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Toulouse

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Ligue 1

Le Mans

Best BTTS rate (100%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Toulouse

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Le Mans at home · Toulouse away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Le Mans (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–0L

W 1

D 2

Played3

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.70

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Toulouse (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–0L

D 3

Played3

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Le Mans (home)Toulouse (away)

W 1

D 2

D 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.70

2.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1

7.2%

1–2

4.9%

0–2

3.9%

1–3

1.5%

0–3

1.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

📈 Recent Form

Le Mans

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Paris Saint Germain	Away	1–3	L
02/10	Guingamp	Away	1–2	L
19/09	Lorient	Home	2–1	W
13/09	Lens	Home	2–2	D
05/09	Nice	Away	1–1	D

Toulouse

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Monaco	Away	2–2	D
03/10	PAU	Home	2–3	L
19/09	Le Havre	Home	3–2	W
12/09	Lorient	Away	2–2	D
03/09	Lille	Home	0–1	L

📊 Season Comparison — Ligue 1

Le Mans #14 · 6 pts — Toulouse #15 · 6 pts

Le Mans

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–2L

W 1

D 3

L 2

Played6

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Yellow cards15

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.68

xG against (avg)1.69

Corners for (avg)2.40

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Toulouse

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–2L

W 1

D 3

L 2

Played6

Goals scored (avg)1.50

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Yellow cards10

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.48

xG against (avg)1.47

Corners for (avg)4.70

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Le MansToulouse

W 1

D 3

L 2

W 1

D 3

L 2

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.70

1.50

Goals conceded (avg)

2.00

1.80

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.68

1.48

xG against (avg)

1.69

1.47

Corners for (avg)

2.40

4.70

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/0

2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Le Mans

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Toulouse

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Le Mans

❌ H. Voyer — Yellow Cards
❌ R. Bamba — Loan agreement
❌ E. Colas — Injury
❌ Y. Larouci — Concussion
❌ S. Yohou — Thigh Injury
❌ T. Eyoum — Coach's decision
❌ W. Harhouz — Coach's decision
❌ N. Kocik — Ankle Injury
❌ E. Quarshie — Coach's decision
❌ D. Sidibe — Red Card
❌ L. Buades — Knock
❌ M. Rossignol — Coach's decision
❌ A. Bourabaa — Ankle Injury

Toulouse

❌ A. Donnum — Personal Reasons
❌ A. Francis — Muscle Injury
❌ A. Vossah — Yellow Cards
❌ Y. Gboho — Transfer negotiations
❌ R. Nicolaisen — Calf Injury
❌ G. Restes — Injury
❌ J. Vignolo — Inactive

More: Ligue 1 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws