Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β’ 18:45 UTC+3 β’ Round 7 β’ Stade Pierre-Mauroy β’ βοΈ 9.5Β°C, 14 km/h clear
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.66 β 1.81 β²9% | 84% | 58.1% | 1.81 | Marathonbet | 56.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 75% | 76.7% | 1.24 | Marathonbet | 80% | -3.3 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 50.5% | 1.70 | William Hill | 56% | -5.5 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 48.9% | 1.77 | 1xBet | 55.6% | -6.7 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 66% | 8.9% | 8.50 | Bet365 | 6% | +2.9 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 63% | 53.9% | 1.90 | Betano | 50.1% | +3.8 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: Lille 1.66 β 0.95 Stade Brestois 29 Β· expected total 2.61
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β a big drop means the value window is closing.
π§ Match Preview
The model leans heavily on Lille's stronger profile. Their recent form reads WWLWL against Brest's WDLLW, and the expected goals split is telling: Lille carry a home figure of 1.6613 against Brest's away 0.9463. Interestingly, recent xG form flips slightly, with Brest at 1.64 and Lille at 1.39, so the visitors are creating chances even if results have been patchy. Both squads are depleted, with Lille missing seven players including B. Andre, and Brest without nine, among them B. Chardonnet and H. Magnetti.
The headline tip is a Lille win at 58.1% probability, priced at 1.81, with confidence rated 84. Double chance 1X lands at 76.7%. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 50.5% (odds 1.7), and Over 2.5 goals sits at 48.9% (odds 1.77) β the model is slightly cooler than the market on goals. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 11.11%, followed by 2-0 at 10.19% and 2-1 at 9.64%. Corners point Under 9.5 at 53.9%, with an expected 8.7.
The honest caveat: recent xG favours Brest, and the head-to-head is wild β 3-3 and 1-1 in the last two meetings. Lille's win price offers thin value; the safer angle may be double chance or the unders side of goals.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Ligue 1
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
Lille at home Β· Stade Brestois 29 away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Lille (home)
Stade Brestois 29 (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Lille 3 wins Β· 5 draws Β· Stade Brestois 29 2 wins Β· avg 2.4 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Lille | 1β1 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 | 3β3 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 10 May 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 | 2β0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 06 Dec 2024 | Lille | 3β1 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Stade Brestois 29 | 1β1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Lille | 1β0 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 24 Feb 2023 | Lille | 2β1 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Jan 2023 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0β0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 22 Jan 2022 | Stade Brestois 29 | 2β0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Lille | 1β1 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
π Recent Form
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Le Havre | Home | 1β0 | W |
| 02/10 | Zulte Waregem | Home | 2β1 | W |
| 20/09 | Nice | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 13/09 | Estac Troyes | Home | 2β0 | W |
| 08/09 | Real Betis | Home | 2β3 | L |
Stade Brestois 29
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Angers | Home | 5β1 | W |
| 03/10 | Monza | Home | 2β2 | D |
| 20/09 | Auxerre | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 13/09 | Paris Saint Germain | Home | 0β1 | L |
| 05/09 | Le Havre | Away | 2β1 | W |
π Season Comparison β Ligue 1
Lille #2 Β· 13 pts β Stade Brestois 29 #7 Β· 8 pts
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Lille
- β B. Andre β Yellow Cards
- β M. Fernandez-Pardo β Yellow Cards
- β H. Igamane β Knee Injury
- β S. Diaoune β Inactive
- β T. Nianzou β Inactive
- β L. Srdanovic β Inactive
- β E. Mbappe β Ankle Injury
Stade Brestois 29
- β B. Chardonnet β Calf Injury
- β H. Magnetti β Muscle Injury
- β J. Bourgault β Knee Injury
- β R. Cagnon β Shoulder Injury
- β M. Diambou β Ankle Injury
- β R. Le Guen β Broken Leg
- β G. Versini β Leg Injury
- β N. Edjouma β Muscle Injury
- β M. Balde β Injury
More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws