Predictions β†’ France Ligue 1

Lorient vs Monaco

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 15:15 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Stade du Moustoir β€’ 🌦 12.8Β°C, 19 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 78% 40.9% 2.10 1xBet 48.8% -7.9 pp
Double Chance 12 70% 70.9% 1.33 1xBet 73.5% -2.6 pp
BTTS Yes 84% 54.1% 1.75 Bet365 55.7% -1.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 50.5% 1.91 Bet365 51.8% -1.3 pp
Correct Score 1-2 60% 5.9% 9.00 Bet365 5.6% +0.3 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.4 exp.) Under 9.5 67% 57.4% 1.67 Bet365 55.7% +1.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Lorient 1.64 – 1.39 Monaco Β· expected total 3.03

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Lorient host Monaco at the Stade du Moustoir on Sunday with the visitors sitting top of Ligue 1 on 14 points from 6 games, while the home side are 8th on 8 points. The stakes are clear: Monaco can protect their early-season cushion, Lorient can close the gap with a statement win.

The model leans toward the away side, giving Monaco a 40.9 percent win probability at odds of 2.1, with confidence sitting at 78. Form backs the visitors, who arrive on a DWWDW run, against Lorient's patchier WLDWL. Recent attacking numbers are modest on both sides, with Lorient at 1.15 xG and Monaco at 1.29, though the model's expected goals for this fixture sit at 1.6393 for the hosts and 1.3929 for the away team. Monaco's injury list is enormous, with thirteen names including F. Balogun, A. Fati and T. Minamino, which is a real caveat against their short price.

The double chance covering Monaco and the draw carries a 70.9 percent probability and looks the safer anchor. Both teams to score is rated 54.1 percent at 1.75, while over 2.5 goals sits at 50.5 percent at 1.91, a near coin-flip that may hold value if the odds drift. The model's top correct score is 1-2 at 7.68, with 0-1 at 5.63 next. Corners are tipped under 9.5 at 57.4 percent, with an expected 7.4.

The honest risk: Monaco's injury crisis could blunt them, and Lorient have won two of the last five head-to-heads, so the away win at 2.1 is not a gift.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Lorient

Form (last 5)
WParis FC (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026LLe Mans (A) 1–2 Β· 19/09/2026DToulouse (H) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026WLens (A) 1–0 Β· 05/09/2026LEstac Troyes (H) 1–2 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.15
xG against (recent avg)1.35
Elo strength rating1500
Players out4

Monaco

Form (last 5)
DToulouse (H) 2–2 Β· 10/10/2026WPisa (H) 2–0 Β· 03/10/2026WLens (H) 2–1 Β· 18/09/2026DStrasbourg (A) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026WParis Saint Germain (A) 2–1 Β· 04/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.13
xG against (recent avg)1.25
Elo strength rating1612
Players out13
LorientMonaco
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.80
Win streak (best this season)
1
3
xG for (recent avg)
1.15
1.13
xG against (recent avg)
1.35
1.25
Elo strength rating
1500
1612
Players out
4
13

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Lorient

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Monaco

Unbeaten 9
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Ligue 1

Lorient

2nd best clean sheets (3)

Monaco

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Lorient at home Β· Monaco away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Lorient (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Monaco (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Lorient (home)Monaco (away)
W 1
D 1
L 1
W 2
D 1
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
0.70
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
5.9%
0–1
4.3%
0–2
3.6%
1–3
2.7%
2–3
2.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Lorient 3 wins Β· 5 draws Β· Monaco 2 wins Β· avg 3.6 goals Β· BTTS in 8 of 10

3
5
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
16 Jan 2026 Monaco 1–3 Lorient Ligue 1
27 Sep 2025 Lorient 3–1 Monaco Ligue 1
17 Mar 2024 Monaco 2–2 Lorient Ligue 1
17 Sep 2023 Lorient 2–2 Monaco Ligue 1
16 Apr 2023 Monaco 3–1 Lorient Ligue 1
11 Jan 2023 Lorient 2–2 Monaco Ligue 1
13 Feb 2022 Monaco 0–0 Lorient Ligue 1
13 Aug 2021 Lorient 1–0 Monaco Ligue 1
14 Feb 2021 Monaco 2–2 Lorient Ligue 1
06 Jan 2021 Lorient 2–5 Monaco Ligue 1

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Lorient

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Paris FC Home 1–0 W
19/09 Le Mans Away 1–2 L
12/09 Toulouse Home 2–2 D
05/09 Lens Away 1–0 W
29/08 Estac Troyes Home 1–2 L

Monaco

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Toulouse Home 2–2 D
03/10 Pisa Home 2–0 W
18/09 Lens Home 2–1 W
12/09 Strasbourg Away 1–1 D
04/09 Paris Saint Germain Away 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Ligue 1

Lorient #8 Β· 8 pts β€”  Monaco #1 Β· 14 pts

Lorient

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–2L
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.15
xG against (avg)1.35
Corners for (avg)2.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Monaco

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–0L
W 4
D 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards11
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.13
xG against (avg)1.25
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
LorientMonaco
W 2
D 2
L 2
W 4
D 2
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.80
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
7
11
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.15
1.13
xG against (avg)
1.35
1.25
Corners for (avg)
2.50
3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Lorient

1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Monaco

0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Lorient

  • ❌ M. Bamba β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ B. Fadiga β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Katseris β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ N. Mbamba β€” Muscle Injury

Monaco

  • ❌ M. Abline β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ F. Balogun β€” Injury
  • ❌ E. Diop β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Fati β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ C. Mawissa β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ T. Minamino β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Salisu β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Teze β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Coulibaly β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ P. Brunner β€” Suspended
  • ❌ M. Biereth β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Idumbo β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ A. Soubeir β€” Injury

More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws