Predictions β†’ France Ligue 1

Lyon vs Nice

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Groupama Stadium β€’ ☁️ 12.7Β°C, 8 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 52.2% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 45.5% Β· Edge +7.4 pp
Best odds 2.20 William Hill 2.20BetVictor 2.151xBet 2.13
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 2.2% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 87% 64.6% 1.71 1xBet 60.1% +4.5 pp
Double Chance 1X 79% 82% 1.20 1xBet 82.5% -0.5 pp
BTTS No 82% 51% 2.20 William Hill 43.6% +7.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 48.4% 1.75 Betano 56.9% -8.5 pp
Correct Score 2-0 67% 9.5% 9.00 Betano 5.7% +3.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Lyon 1.87 – 0.83 Nice Β· expected total 2.69

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Lyon host Nice at Groupama Stadium on Sunday night with both sides looking to climb the Ligue 1 table. Lyon sit 4th on 11 points from 6 games, while Nice are 9th on 8 points, so the home side have the early-season edge in both position and momentum.

The form lines reinforce that. Lyon arrive on a run of LWWDW, whereas Nice have managed just WLDLD from their last five. The expected goals picture is just as lopsided: Lyon are generating 1.8667 goals at home, with 1.82 across recent matches, while Nice's away figure sits at 0.8273, though their recent xG of 1.23 hints at slightly more attacking intent than that road number suggests. History also favours the hosts, with Lyon winning three of the last five head-to-head meetings, including a 2-0 victory in the most recent clash in February 2026.

The model makes Lyon clear favourites at 64.6% with confidence of 87, and the bookmakers agree, pricing them at 1.71. The double chance 1X lands at 82%, a solid anchor if you want to reduce risk. Both teams to score is tipped No at 51%, offered at 2.2, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 48.4% and 1.75. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 9.5%, with 1-0 close behind. Corners look interesting: an expected 9.8 and 52.7% for Over 9.5.

The honest caveat is the injury list. Lyon are missing a long cast including Abner Vinicius, Niakhate and Tagliafico, so their defensive depth is stretched. If that bites, the clean-sheet lean behind the 2-0 and BTTS No calls is the first thing to wobble.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Lyon

Form (last 5)
LLens (A) 1–2 Β· 09/10/2026WRennes (H) 4–0 Β· 19/09/2026WAnderlecht (A) 2–1 Β· 16/09/2026DParis FC (A) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAuxerre (H) 3–1 Β· 04/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.54
xG against (recent avg)0.89
Elo strength rating1637
Players out15

Nice

Form (last 5)
WLille (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026LAuxerre (A) 0–1 Β· 12/09/2026DLe Mans (H) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026LParis FC (A) 0–3 Β· 30/08/2026DLorient (H) 0–0 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.04
xG against (recent avg)1.28
Elo strength rating1361
Players out7
LyonNice
WLille (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026LAuxerre (A) 0–1 Β· 12/09/2026DLe Mans (H) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026LParis FC (A) 0–3 Β· 30/08/2026DLorient (H) 0–0 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.80
0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.70
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.54
1.04
xG against (recent avg)
0.89
1.28
Elo strength rating
1637
1361
Players out
15
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Lyon

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Nice

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Ligue 1

Lyon

3rd best attack (1.80 goals/game) Best defence (0.70 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (3)

Nice

Worst attack (0.60 goals/game) 2nd worst BTTS rate (33%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (33%)

Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Lyon at home Β· Nice away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Lyon (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Nice (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L
L 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Lyon (home)Nice (away)
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played
3
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.70
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
2.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
9.5%
1–0
9.3%
2–1
7.9%
3–0
5.9%
3–1
4.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Lyon 5 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Nice 3 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

5
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
15 Feb 2026 Lyon 2–0 Nice Ligue 1
18 Oct 2025 Nice 3–2 Lyon Ligue 1
09 Mar 2025 Nice 0–2 Lyon Ligue 1
01 Dec 2024 Lyon 4–1 Nice Ligue 1
16 Feb 2024 Lyon 1–0 Nice Ligue 1
27 Aug 2023 Nice 0–0 Lyon Ligue 1
03 Jun 2023 Nice 3–1 Lyon Ligue 1
11 Nov 2022 Lyon 1–1 Nice Ligue 1
12 Feb 2022 Lyon 2–0 Nice Ligue 1
24 Oct 2021 Nice 3–2 Lyon Ligue 1

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Lyon

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Lens Away 1–2 L
19/09 Rennes Home 4–0 W
16/09 Anderlecht Away 2–1 W
12/09 Paris FC Away 0–0 D
04/09 Auxerre Home 3–1 W

Nice

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Lille Home 2–1 W
12/09 Auxerre Away 0–1 L
05/09 Le Mans Home 1–1 D
30/08 Paris FC Away 0–3 L
22/08 Lorient Home 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Ligue 1

Lyon #4 Β· 11 pts β€”  Nice #9 Β· 8 pts

Lyon

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–1L
W 3
D 2
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards10
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.54
xG against (avg)0.89
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Nice

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–2L
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.04
xG against (avg)1.28
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
LyonNice
W 3
D 2
L 1
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.20
Clean sheets
3
1
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
10
8
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.54
1.04
xG against (avg)
0.89
1.28
Corners for (avg)
4.40
5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Lyon

0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
4
scored conceded

Nice

1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Lyon

  • ❌ Abner Vinicius β€” Rest
  • ❌ R. Kluivert β€” Rest
  • ❌ A. Maitland-Niles β€” Rest
  • ❌ K. Merah β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ M. Niakhate β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. Duranville β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ R. Himbert β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Kamara β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Gomes Rodriguez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Hamdani β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Kango β€” Inactive
  • ❌ K. Nakamura β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ M. Ouedraogo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. de Carvalho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Tagliafico β€” Rest

Nice

  • ❌ L. Abergel β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Bombito β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Moffi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Witsel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Abdi β€” Surgery
  • ❌ M. Sanson β€” Surgery
  • ❌ A. Mendy β€” Knee Injury

More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws