Predictions β†’ France Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice

Next match: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 8 β€’ Stade Francis-Le-BlΓ© β€’ 🌦 4.8Β°C, 8 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 83% 53.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 75% 77.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 82% 50.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 48.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 68% 10.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.) Over 9.5 60% 52% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.54 – 0.85 Nice Β· expected total 2.39

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Brest and Nice arrive level on 8 points from 6 games, sitting 7th and 9th respectively, so Friday night at Stade Francis-Le-BlΓ© is a straight scrap for mid-table breathing room. The hosts' recent form reads WDLLW, while the visitors limp in with WLDLD, and both camps are nursing lengthy injury lists β€” nine names out for Brest, seven for Nice, including Moffi and Witsel.

The model leans home. Brest's recent expected goals sit at 1.64 against Nice's 1.23, and the goal expectations split 1.5408 to 0.8526 in the hosts' favour. That gap drives a 53.3 percent home win at 83 confidence, plus a hefty 77.4 percent for the 1X double chance. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 lands at 48.4 percent and BTTS No at 50.4 percent, with the correct-score board topped by 1-0 at 12.89, then 2-0 at 10.85 and 2-1 at 9.25. Corners are expected to tick over, with Over 9.5 at 52 percent off an expected 9.5.

The value question is simple: if your bookmaker prices Brest's win above the implied 53.3 percent, take it; the 1X at 77.4 percent is the safer anchor, and 1-0 is the sharpest correct-score angle. The honest caveat is that this fixture has produced chaos β€” 2-2, 4-1 and 6-0 in the last five meetings β€” and with both squads depleted, one early goal could blow the low-scoring script apart.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Stade Brestois 29

Form (last 5)
WAngers (H) 5–1 Β· 10/10/2026DMonza (H) 2–2 Β· 03/10/2026LAuxerre (A) 1–2 Β· 20/09/2026LParis Saint Germain (H) 0–1 Β· 13/09/2026WLe Havre (A) 2–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.64
xG against (recent avg)1.20
Elo strength rating1453
Players out9

Nice

Form (last 5)
WLille (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026LAuxerre (A) 0–1 Β· 12/09/2026DLe Mans (H) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026LParis FC (A) 0–3 Β· 30/08/2026DLorient (H) 0–0 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.04
xG against (recent avg)1.28
Elo strength rating1361
Players out7
Stade Brestois 29Nice
WLille (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026LAuxerre (A) 0–1 Β· 12/09/2026DLe Mans (H) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026LParis FC (A) 0–3 Β· 30/08/2026DLorient (H) 0–0 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.64
1.04
xG against (recent avg)
1.20
1.28
Elo strength rating
1453
1361
Players out
9
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Stade Brestois 29

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Nice

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29

Best attack (2.00 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Nice

Worst attack (0.60 goals/game) 2nd worst BTTS rate (33%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (33%)

Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Stade Brestois 29 at home Β· Nice away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Stade Brestois 29 (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Nice (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L
L 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Stade Brestois 29 (home)Nice (away)
W 1
D 1
L 1
L 2
Played
3
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
2.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
1
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.5%
2–0
8.8%
2–1
7.5%
3–0
4.5%
3–1
3.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Nice 4 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Stade Brestois 29 2 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 9

4
3
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
01 Feb 2026 Nice 2–2 Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1
20 Sep 2025 Stade Brestois 29 4–1 Nice Ligue 1
17 May 2025 Nice 6–0 Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1
02 Nov 2024 Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Nice Ligue 1
04 Feb 2024 Stade Brestois 29 0–0 Nice Ligue 1
01 Oct 2023 Nice 0–0 Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1
16 Apr 2023 Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Nice Ligue 1
06 Nov 2022 Nice 1–0 Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1
09 Jan 2022 Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Nice Ligue 1

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Stade Brestois 29

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Angers Home 5–1 W
03/10 Monza Home 2–2 D
20/09 Auxerre Away 1–2 L
13/09 Paris Saint Germain Home 0–1 L
05/09 Le Havre Away 2–1 W

Nice

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Lille Home 2–1 W
12/09 Auxerre Away 0–1 L
05/09 Le Mans Home 1–1 D
30/08 Paris FC Away 0–3 L
22/08 Lorient Home 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 #7 Β· 8 pts β€”  Nice #9 Β· 8 pts

Stade Brestois 29

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–2L
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.64
xG against (avg)1.20
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Nice

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–2L
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.04
xG against (avg)1.28
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Stade Brestois 29Nice
W 2
D 2
L 2
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.20
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
7
8
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.64
1.04
xG against (avg)
1.20
1.28
Corners for (avg)
4.80
5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Stade Brestois 29

2
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Nice

1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Stade Brestois 29

  • ❌ B. Chardonnet β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ H. Magnetti β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Bourgault β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Cagnon β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ M. Diambou β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ R. Le Guen β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ G. Versini β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ N. Edjouma β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Balde β€” Injury

Nice

  • ❌ L. Abergel β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Bombito β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Moffi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Witsel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Abdi β€” Surgery
  • ❌ M. Sanson β€” Surgery
  • ❌ A. Mendy β€” Knee Injury

More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws