Predictions β†’ France Ligue 1

Paris FC vs Rennes

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 15:15 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Stade Jean Bouin β€’ ☁️ 14.8Β°C, 9 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 48.5% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 41.3% Β· Edge +9.0 pp
Best odds 2.42 1xBet 2.42Betano 2.42William Hill 2.40
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.1% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 77% 38.6% 2.37 Pinnacle 42.9% -4.3 pp
Double Chance 12 68% 67.6% 1.36 1xBet 72.9% -5.3 pp
BTTS No 81% 48.3% 2.42 1xBet 39.3% +9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.7% 1.72 1xBet 57.2% -9.5 pp
Correct Score 1-0 64% 8.1% 10.25 Marathonbet 5% +3.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.8 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.6% 1.91 Betano 49.9% +3.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Paris FC 1.33 – 1.12 Rennes Β· expected total 2.45

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Paris FC host Rennes at Stade Jean Bouin on Sunday with both sides in the top five after six rounds, and the model leans toward the home team despite the visitors sitting higher in the table. Rennes arrive third on 13 points, Paris FC fifth on 11, so this is a genuine early-season six-pointer between two clubs with European ambitions.

The form lines are close: Paris FC have gone LWDWW across their last five, Rennes LDWWW. The underlying numbers tell a more interesting story. The model's expected goals split gives the hosts 1.3262 against Rennes' 1.123, yet recent shot quality flips that picture entirely, with Paris FC at 0.92 xG and Rennes at 1.88. Both squads are badly depleted, with seven absentees listed for the home side and eight for Rennes, so rotation and fatigue could shape the tempo.

The headline tip is a Paris FC win at 38.6% model probability against odds of 2.37, and the double chance covering the home side and the draw lands at 67.6%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.3% with odds of 2.42, while Over 2.5 goals carries 47.7% and odds of 1.72. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 8.1%, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind. Corners point Under 9.5 at 53.6%, with an expected 8.8.

The honest caveat: Rennes' recent xG of 1.88 is the strongest single attacking signal here, and it sits awkwardly against a home win tip. If the visitors convert that chance quality, the 2.37 on Paris FC looks thin.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Paris FC

Form (last 5)
LLorient (A) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026WStrasbourg (H) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026DLyon (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WMarseille (A) 3–2 Β· 06/09/2026WNice (H) 3–0 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.60
xG against (recent avg)0.24
Elo strength rating1504
Players out7

Rennes

Form (last 5)
LLyon (A) 0–4 Β· 19/09/2026DSturm Graz (A) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WMarseille (H) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026WAngers (A) 2–1 Β· 06/09/2026WLe Mans (H) 3–2 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.15
xG against (recent avg)1.56
Elo strength rating1599
Players out8
Paris FCRennes
LLyon (A) 0–4 Β· 19/09/2026DSturm Graz (A) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WMarseille (H) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026WAngers (A) 2–1 Β· 06/09/2026WLe Mans (H) 3–2 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.70
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
2
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.60
1.15
xG against (recent avg)
0.24
1.56
Elo strength rating
1504
1599
Players out
7
8

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Paris FC

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Rennes

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Ligue 1

Paris FC

Best defence (0.70 conceded/game) 2nd worst BTTS rate (33%) 2nd best clean sheets (3)

Rennes

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Paris FC at home Β· Rennes away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Paris FC (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1

Rennes (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L
W 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Paris FC (home)Rennes (away)
W 2
D 1
W 1
L 1
Played
3
2
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
2.50
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.1%
2–1
6.8%
2–0
6.1%
3–1
3%
3–0
2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Paris FC 0 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Rennes 2 wins Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 2

2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
10 May 2026 Rennes 2–1 Paris FC Ligue 1
07 Nov 2025 Paris FC 0–1 Rennes Ligue 1

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Paris FC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Lorient Away 0–1 L
19/09 Strasbourg Home 2–1 W
12/09 Lyon Home 0–0 D
06/09 Marseille Away 3–2 W
30/08 Nice Home 3–0 W

Rennes

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Lyon Away 0–4 L
16/09 Sturm Graz Away 0–0 D
11/09 Marseille Home 1–0 W
06/09 Angers Away 2–1 W
30/08 Le Mans Home 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Ligue 1

Paris FC #5 Β· 11 pts β€”  Rennes #3 Β· 13 pts

Paris FC

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–1L
W 3
D 2
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards13
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.60
xG against (avg)0.24
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Rennes

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–1L
W 4
D 1
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.15
xG against (avg)1.56
Corners for (avg)5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Paris FCRennes
W 3
D 2
L 1
W 4
D 1
L 1
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.80
Clean sheets
3
1
Failed to score
3
1
Yellow cards
13
9
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.60
1.15
xG against (avg)
0.24
1.56
Corners for (avg)
3.20
5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Paris FC

1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
76-90
3
scored conceded

Rennes

1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Paris FC

  • ❌ J. Ikone β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ E. Mbemba β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Sangui β€” Injury
  • ❌ L. Koleosho β€” Injury
  • ❌ Otavio β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. De Smet β€” Inactive
  • ❌ V. Marchetti β€” Inactive

Rennes

  • ❌ M. Camara β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ S. Fofana β€” Inactive
  • ❌ B. Samba β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Ait Boudlal β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Cisse β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Nordin β€” Inactive
  • ❌ G. Oliveira β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Q. Merlin β€” Inactive

More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws