Predictions → Germany 2. Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg

Next match: Sun, 01 Nov 2026 • 12:30 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Millerntor-Stadion

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 48.7% — — — —
Double Chance 12 72% 73.2% — — — —
BTTS Yes 84% 54.9% — — — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 50% — — — —
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.3% — — — —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.9 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 54.9% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.96 – 1.42 1. FC Nürnberg · expected total 3.38

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

FC St. Pauli

Form (last 5)
DHannover 96 (A) 1–1 · 17/10/2026WKarlsruher SC (H) 2–0 · 11/10/2026DBorussia Mönchengladbach (H) 1–1 · 03/10/2026DEnergie Cottbus (A) 1–1 · 20/09/2026WVfL Wolfsburg (H) 1–0 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.65
xG against (recent avg)0.88
Elo strength rating1393

1. FC Nürnberg

Form (last 5)
DEnergie Cottbus (A) 1–1 · 16/10/2026DVfL Wolfsburg (H) 4–4 · 10/10/2026WFC Ingolstadt 04 (H) 3–1 · 02/10/2026WKarlsruher SC (A) 1–0 · 19/09/2026WHannover 96 (H) 2–1 · 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.66
xG against (recent avg)1.96
Elo strength rating1562
FC St. Pauli1. FC Nürnberg
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
2.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.10
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
1
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.65
1.66
xG against (recent avg)
0.88
1.96
Elo strength rating
1393
1562

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

FC St. Pauli

Unbeaten 6
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

1. FC Nürnberg

Unbeaten 10
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — 2. Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli

3rd best defence (1.10 conceded/game) Worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

1. FC Nürnberg

2nd best attack (2.60 goals/game) Best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 18 2. Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

FC St. Pauli at home · 1. FC Nürnberg away — the split that matters for this fixture.

FC St. Pauli (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

1. FC Nürnberg (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–0L
W 2
D 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
FC St. Pauli (home)1. FC Nürnberg (away)
W 2
D 1
L 1
W 2
D 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.30
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.3%
2–0
5.1%
3–1
4.8%
1–0
4.5%
3–2
3.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

1. FC Nürnberg 0 wins · 3 draws · FC St. Pauli 7 wins · avg 3.1 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10

3
7
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
16 Mar 2024 FC Nurnberg 0–2 FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga
07 Oct 2023 FC St. Pauli 5–1 FC Nurnberg 2. Bundesliga
29 Jan 2023 FC Nurnberg 0–1 FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga
16 Jul 2022 FC St. Pauli 3–2 FC Nurnberg 2. Bundesliga
29 Apr 2022 FC St. Pauli 1–1 FC Nurnberg 2. Bundesliga
28 Nov 2021 FC Nurnberg 2–3 FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga
14 Feb 2021 FC Nurnberg 1–2 FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga
19 Oct 2020 FC St. Pauli 2–2 FC Nurnberg 2. Bundesliga
17 May 2020 FC St. Pauli 1–0 FC Nurnberg 2. Bundesliga
06 Oct 2019 FC Nurnberg 1–1 FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga

📈 Recent Form

FC St. Pauli

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Hannover 96 Away 1–1 D
11/10 Karlsruher SC Home 2–0 W
03/10 Borussia Mönchengladbach Home 1–1 D
20/09 Energie Cottbus Away 1–1 D
12/09 VfL Wolfsburg Home 1–0 W

1. FC Nürnberg

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
16/10 Energie Cottbus Away 1–1 D
10/10 VfL Wolfsburg Home 4–4 D
02/10 FC Ingolstadt 04 Home 3–1 W
19/09 Karlsruher SC Away 1–0 W
11/09 Hannover 96 Home 2–1 W

📊 Season Comparison — 2. Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli #7 · 11 pts —  1. FC Nürnberg #2 · 18 pts

FC St. Pauli

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–1L
W 2
D 5
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards18
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.65
xG against (avg)0.88
Corners for (avg)5.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

1. FC Nürnberg

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–0L
W 5
D 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards18
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.66
xG against (avg)1.96
Corners for (avg)6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
FC St. Pauli1. FC Nürnberg
W 2
D 5
L 1
W 5
D 3
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
2.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.40
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
18
18
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
0.65
1.66
xG against (avg)
0.88
1.96
Corners for (avg)
5.90
6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

FC St. Pauli

1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

1. FC Nürnberg

2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: 2. Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws