Our model gives Hertha BSC win a 92% confidence rating
Germany 2. Bundesliga Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches • Next 20 Days • 9 Matches • Round 8 • Updated 51 minutes ago • UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 8
Friday, October 16
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:30 | LWDLD |
Holstein Kiel
vs
Hertha BSC
|
WWWWW | 79% | 43.6% | Away | 2.31 | — |
| 19:30 | LDDWD |
Energie Cottbus
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
|
DWWWD | 78% | 41.6% | Away | 2.07 | — |
Saturday, October 17
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | DWWLD |
VfL Wolfsburg
vs
1. FC Heidenheim
|
DWLDW | 84% | 57.2% | Home | 1.83 | — |
| 14:00 | DDLWL |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
vs
Eintracht Braunschweig
|
WLLDL | 79% | 43.4% | Home | 2.10 | — |
| 14:00 | DDWLW |
1. FC Kaiserslautern
vs
VfL Bochum
|
LDWLW | 78% | 41% | Home | 2.52 | — |
| 21:30 | LWWLD |
Hannover 96
vs
FC St. Pauli
|
DWDLL | 79% | 42.5% | Home | 2.12 | — |
Sunday, October 18
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | DLLDL |
Dynamo Dresden
vs
1. FC Magdeburg
|
WDWLW | 75% | 32.9% | Away | 2.65 | — |
| 14:30 | DLDLW |
Arminia Bielefeld
vs
VfL Osnabrück
|
DLLWD | 85% | 60.1% | Home | 1.70 | — |
| 14:30 | LLDLW |
Karlsruher SC
vs
SV Darmstadt 98
|
WWLWL | 77% | 38.6% | Home | 2.23 | — |
Top Trends from 2. Bundesliga Teams
Our model gives 1. FC Magdeburg win a 88% confidence rating
Our model gives 1. FC Nürnberg win a 87% confidence rating
Our model gives 1. FC Heidenheim win a 86% confidence rating
Our model gives Arminia Bielefeld win a 85% confidence rating
1. FC Kaiserslautern are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
In their 10 most recent matches, Holstein Kiel have achieved just 2 wins
Predictlix 2. Bundesliga Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Hertha BSC versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth carries the window's strongest signal, with the PredictLix model assigning a 92 confidence rating and a 78.2% probability to a home win, the highest in this set. That edge stems largely from a huge home lambda of 2.7494 against an away figure of 1.0931. Elsewhere, 1. FC Heidenheim over 1. FC Kaiserslautern sits at 86 confidence and 62.8%, while FC St. Pauli against Karlsruher SC reaches 86 confidence and 61.4%. Back Hertha BSC at high confidence.
Model Track Record in This League
The PredictLix model's settled record in this league covers 74 matches, updated 2026-09-20, and that sample sits under 50? No, it clears that bar, so treat it as modest rather than large. Match winner accuracy reached 37.8% correct (28/74), while double chance landed 73% correct (54/74). BTTS proved the sharper read at 60.8% correct (45/74). Over/Under 2.5 managed 48.6% correct (36/74), and correct score just 9.5% correct (7/74). High-confidence picks of 75+ hit 54.2% correct (n=273).
Goals Landscape — Over/Under Breakdown
Hertha BSC versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth stands out as the window's goals hotspot, with the PredictLix model leaning Over 2.5 at 58.6% and BTTS Yes at 58.2%, driven by home lambda 2.7494 against an away defence conceding heavily. By contrast, VfL Bochum against Arminia Bielefeld leans Under 2.5 at 49.2% with BTTS No at 49%, reflecting Bielefeld's blunt attack and a low away lambda of 0.8724. Eintracht Braunschweig versus Holstein Kiel also tilts Under 2.5 at 48.2%, two winless strugglers. Best value: Over 2.5 in Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth, high confidence.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Hertha BSC arrive on a five-match winning run that underpins their 18-point tally at the summit. Nürnberg stand unbeaten across their last 10 matches, a streak that keeps them second on 16 points. At the other end, Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel have each managed just 1 win in their 10 most recent matches, leaving both in relegation danger. Kaiserslautern are unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent matches. Two fixtures carry partial data, so those samples stay short.
Defensive Lines — Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Hertha BSC stand out defensively with 4 clean sheets and just 0.7 conceded per game, the tightest record in this window. VfL Wolfsburg pair 7 goals of positive goal difference with a sturdy shape. At the other end, SV Darmstadt 98 leak 2.2 goals per game with no clean sheets, while Dynamo Dresden and Karlsruher SC both ship 2.3 and 2 respectively. Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel have each managed just 1 win in their 10 most recent matches.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Hertha BSC sit top on 18 points with a Champions League spot and five straight wins, while Holstein Kiel, Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 occupy the RELEGATION ZONE and must win. Karlsruher SC, Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig are in a relegation battle needing points. Every one of these Regular Season contests carries real stakes, so no tie here can be treated as settled.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Hertha BSC versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth carries the window's top probability at 78.2%, yet the accumulator section offers no priced legs to build on. Not enough high-confidence selections with real odds were available, so no acca can be quoted here. The PredictLix model's strongest standalone lean is Hertha BSC at home, backed by a 92 confidence rating and five straight wins. Bank on that single if odds appear; otherwise wait for prices.
AI Prediction Accuracy — Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form — Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) · <60% | 45.6% | 43.6% | 39 |
| Match Result (1X2) · 60-69% | 63.3% | 60.0% | 5 |
| Match Result (1X2) · 70-79% | 79.1% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Both Teams to Score · <60% | 53.1% | 64.9% | 37 |
| Both Teams to Score · 60-69% | 64.4% | 50.0% | 8 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · <60% | 52.5% | 50.0% | 36 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · 60-69% | 64.9% | 66.7% | 9 |
| Correct Score · <60% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 45 |
| Double Chance · 70-79% | 75.3% | 75.7% | 37 |
| Double Chance · 80+% | 84.0% | 83.3% | 6 |
| Double Chance · 60-69% | 67.9% | 100.0% | 2 |
| Corners Over/Under · 80+% | 91.8% | 40.0% | 10 |
| Corners Over/Under · 70-79% | 75.5% | 71.4% | 7 |
| Corners Over/Under · <60% | 55.2% | 77.8% | 18 |
| Corners Over/Under · 60-69% | 64.4% | 71.4% | 7 |
| Draw Predictions · <60% | 26.8% | 25.0% | 8 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season, Round 7
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 19:30 | WLLDL |
Eintracht Braunschweig
vs
Holstein Kiel
|
LWDLD | 76% | 35% | Home ✅ | N/A | 1 – 0 FT |
| 09/10 19:30 | DWLDW |
1. FC Heidenheim
vs
1. FC Kaiserslautern
|
DDWLW | 86% | 62.8% | Home ❌ | N/A | 0 – 0 FT |
| 10/10 14:00 | WWLWL |
SV Darmstadt 98
vs
Energie Cottbus
|
LDDWD | 74% | 30.7% | Away ❌ | N/A | 3 – 1 FT |
| 10/10 14:00 | WDWLW |
1. FC Magdeburg
vs
Hannover 96
|
LWWLD | 81% | 47.5% | Home ✅ | N/A | 3 – 0 FT |
| 10/10 14:00 | DLLWD |
VfL Osnabrück
vs
Dynamo Dresden
|
DLLDL | 82% | 51.6% | Home ❌ | N/A | 1 – 1 FT |
| 10/10 21:30 | DWWWD |
1. FC Nürnberg
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
|
DWWLD | 82% | 52.3% | Home ❌ | N/A | 4 – 4 FT |
| 11/10 14:30 | LDWLW |
VfL Bochum
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
|
DLDLW | 81% | 49.9% | Home ❌ | N/A | 0 – 1 FT |
| 11/10 14:30 | WWWWW |
Hertha BSC
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
|
DDLWL | 92% | 79.1% | Home ✅ | N/A | 2 – 1 FT |
| 11/10 14:30 | DWDLL |
FC St. Pauli
vs
Karlsruher SC
|
LLDLW | 86% | 61.8% | Home ✅ | N/A | 2 – 0 FT |