SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05
Next match: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 • 19:30 UTC+3 • Round 8 • Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 78% | 39.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | 72% | 73.2% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 82% | 50.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81% | 48.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 72% | 12.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.2% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: SV Elversberg 0.78 – 1.14 FSV Mainz 05 · expected total 1.93
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans away. Mainz carry a 39.7 percent win probability with confidence at 78, and the double chance X2 lands at 73.2 percent, which is where most sensible money will sit. The goal expectation splits 0.7848 for Elversberg against 1.1439 for Mainz, and the recent xG gap is wider still: 1.48 for the hosts against 2.23 for the visitors. That points to a low-scoring, controlled away performance, and the correct-score board agrees, with 0-1 at 15.32 leading the way ahead of 0-2 at 9.51 and 1-2 at 7.46. Under 2.5 goals comes in at 48.3 percent and BTTS No at 50.5 percent, both marginal but consistent with the picture. Corners offer a separate angle: an expected 10 and Over 9.5 at 53.2 percent.
The obvious risk is the team news. Mainz are missing a long list, including B. Hollerbach, E. Martel, Silas, D. Kohr, S. Widmer and R. Zentner, while Elversberg lose L. Seifert, T. Zimmerschied and F. Onyeka, with J. Gyamerah doubtful. That many absences can flatten any model edge, so treat the away lean as a probability play rather than a certainty.
Updated 15 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
SV Elversberg
FSV Mainz 05
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
SV Elversberg
FSV Mainz 05
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
SV Elversberg
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
FSV Mainz 05
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
SV Elversberg at home · FSV Mainz 05 away — the split that matters for this fixture.
SV Elversberg (home)
FSV Mainz 05 (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
FSV Mainz 05 1 win · 0 draws · SV Elversberg 0 wins · avg 1 goals · BTTS in 0 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2023 | SV Elversberg | 0–1 | FSV Mainz 05 | DFB Pokal |
📈 Recent Form
SV Elversberg
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Union Berlin | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 24/09 | Waldhof Mannheim | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | FC Schalke 04 | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 13/09 | Bayern München | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Away | 4–3 | W |
FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 03/10 | Waldhof Mannheim | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Away | 4–3 | W |
| 12/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 06/09 | Hamburger SV | Away | 5–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
SV Elversberg #9 · 7 pts — FSV Mainz 05 #8 · 7 pts
SV Elversberg
FSV Mainz 05
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
SV Elversberg
FSV Mainz 05
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
SV Elversberg
- ❌ L. Seifert — Ankle Injury
- ❌ T. Zimmerschied — Back Injury
- ❌ F. Onyeka — Foot Injury
- ❓ J. Gyamerah (doubtful) — Groin Injury
FSV Mainz 05
- ❌ B. Hollerbach — Lacking Match Fitness
- ❌ E. Martel — Knee Injury
- ❌ P. Nebel — Muscle Injury
- ❌ Silas — Broken shinbone
- ❌ D. Kohr — Foot Injury
- ❌ S. Widmer — Knee Injury
- ❌ O. Ruoppi — Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Zentner — Hand Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws