Our model gives Rot-Weiß Essen win a 89% confidence rating
Germany 3. Liga Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches • Next 20 Days • 10 Matches • Round 9 • Updated 19 minutes ago • UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 9
Tomorrow - Tuesday, October 13
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | WDWLD |
Hansa Rostock
vs
SV Meppen
|
DLLLL | 88% | 66.3% | Home | 1.69 | — |
| 20:00 | DDDWW |
Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
Fortuna Köln
|
DWLDD | 89% | 70.1% | Home | 1.52 | — |
| 20:00 | DWWDL |
FC Saarbrücken
vs
MSV Duisburg
|
WWWLW | 75% | 34% | Home | 2.58 | — |
| 20:00 | LLLLD |
Havelse
vs
Würzburger Kickers
|
LLDLW | 75% | 32.6% | Away | 2.30 | — |
| 20:00 | DDDLL |
Stuttgart II
vs
Hoffenheim II
|
LWWDL | 76% | 36.3% | Away | 2.22 | — |
Wednesday, October 14
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | DLDWW |
Preußen Münster
vs
Fortuna Düsseldorf
|
LWWDW | 74% | 31.1% | Home | 2.87 | — |
| 20:00 | LWLDD |
SV Wehen
vs
Alemannia Aachen
|
WLDWL | 75% | 31.9% | Home | 2.32 | — |
| 20:00 | WWWLW |
FC Viktoria Köln
vs
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
|
LDLDD | 88% | 68.2% | Home | 1.78 | — |
| 20:00 | WDWWL |
Verl
vs
SSV Jahn Regensburg
|
WLDLD | 80% | 45% | Home | 2.10 | — |
| 20:00 | WLWWL |
Waldhof Mannheim
vs
FC Ingolstadt 04
|
LLWLW | 81% | 47.7% | Home | 2.15 | — |
Top Trends from 3. Liga Teams
Our model gives Hansa Rostock win a 88% confidence rating
Our model gives FC Viktoria Köln win a 88% confidence rating
In their 10 most recent matches, Havelse have achieved just 1 wins
Fortuna Köln are unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent matches
FC Saarbrücken are unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent matches
MSV Duisburg are unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent matches
Predictlix 3. Liga Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach stands out with a 92 confidence rating and 84.7% probability, the highest in this window according to the PredictLix model. The home side's attacking lambda of 2.4654 dwarfs the visitors' 0.6317, a huge edge for the second-placed club. Hansa Rostock vs SV Meppen also carries 89 confidence and a +9pp value edge at 1.55. Back Viktoria Köln at short odds with maximum confidence.
Model Track Record in This League
Across 90 settled matches in this league, the PredictLix model has delivered 37.8% correct on match winner, 52.2% on BTTS and 50% on Over/Under 2.5. Correct score sits at just 4.4%. Double chance reaches 68.9%, while draw picks land only 14.7%. The sample is small, so treat these figures with caution. High-confidence picks at 75 and above hit 49%, and medium-confidence picks between 50 and 74 manage 28.8%.
Goals Landscape — Over/Under Breakdown
MSV Duisburg versus Hoffenheim II carries the window's clearest goals lean, with the PredictLix model reading Over 2.5 at 63.7% and home and away lambdas of 2.7821 and 1.6351. At the other end, Preußen Münster against Fortuna Düsseldorf tilts Under 2.5 at 51.2%. Verl versus SSV Jahn Regensburg also leans Over at 58.9%, backed by lambdas of 1.8947 and 1.2505. Best angle: Over 2.5 in Duisburg at 1.5, medium confidence.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Havelse's collapse stands out sharply, with just 1 win across their 10 most recent matches. Fortuna Köln arrive at Rot-Weiß Essen unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent outings, a stubborn streak worth tracking. Three sides carry heavy win expectancy into this window, led by FC Viktoria Köln at 92 percent confidence. Note that early-season samples remain short, so these runs may yet shift.
Defensive Lines — Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
MSV Duisburg arrive with the meanest defence in this window, conceding just 1.0 per game across seven outings, while FC Viktoria Köln and Hoffenheim II sit close behind on 1.1. Rot-Weiß Essen have also shipped only 1.3 per match, yet Preußen Münster, SV Wehen, Havelse and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach all leak 2.1 or more, and Würzburger Kickers concede 2.4. Clean sheets tell a similar story: Duisburg, Viktoria Köln, Regensburg and Meppen each record two or three shutouts, whereas Münster, Grossaspach, Havelse and Fortuna Köln have kept none.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
MSV Duisburg lead the table on 18 points with a goal difference of +12, while Havelse sit bottom on 4 points, so the gap between top and bottom is stark. SSV Jahn Regensburg occupy the RELEGATION ZONE and must win, and Havelse share that urgency, meaning their Regular Season - 8 meeting carries real pressure. Würzburger Kickers are in a relegation battle needing points, and Stuttgart II face the same fight. With only seven matches played, these standings remain early and should be read with caution.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Hansa Rostock, Rot-Weiß Essen and SSV Jahn Regensburg carry the PredictLix acca, all three backed at home. Confidence sits at 89, 89 and 87 respectively, and the combined price for all legs is 3.96. Rostock's edge over SV Meppen reaches +9pp, while Essen's +8.4pp against Fortuna Köln is the second-strongest indicator in this window. Take the three-leg acca at 3.96 with high confidence.
Model vs Market — Value Edges
Hansa Rostock's home clash with SV Meppen offers the standout edge, with the PredictLix model rating a home win at 69.4% against an implied 60.4%, a +9pp gap at odds of 1.55. Rot-Weiß Essen versus Fortuna Köln follows closely, showing 69.6% against 61.2% for a +8.4pp edge. A positive edge signals long-term value, not a guaranteed result in any single match. Back Hansa Rostock at 1.55.
AI Prediction Accuracy — Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form — Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) · <60% | 45.3% | 37.5% | 56 |
| Match Result (1X2) · 70-79% | 76.9% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Match Result (1X2) · 60-69% | 62.1% | 100.0% | 3 |
| Both Teams to Score · <60% | 53.6% | 53.8% | 52 |
| Both Teams to Score · 60-69% | 64.9% | 66.7% | 6 |
| Both Teams to Score · 70-79% | 71.3% | 50.0% | 2 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · <60% | 53.3% | 61.2% | 49 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · 60-69% | 63.8% | 62.5% | 8 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · 70-79% | 72.9% | 66.7% | 3 |
| Correct Score · <60% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 60 |
| Double Chance · 70-79% | 74.6% | 72.3% | 47 |
| Double Chance · 80+% | 82.9% | 70.0% | 10 |
| Double Chance · 60-69% | 68.6% | 33.3% | 3 |
| Draw Predictions · <60% | 26.7% | 30.8% | 13 |
| Corners Over/Under · 80+% | 90.0% | 44.4% | 9 |
| Corners Over/Under · 60-69% | 64.6% | 27.3% | 11 |
| Corners Over/Under · 70-79% | 76.7% | 75.0% | 4 |
| Corners Over/Under · <60% | 54.9% | 40.7% | 27 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season, Round 8
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 20:00 | DLDWW |
Preußen Münster
vs
Rot-Weiß Essen
|
DDDWW | 77% | 38.3% | Home ❌ | N/A | 3 – 3 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | DWLDD |
Fortuna Köln
vs
FC Saarbrücken
|
DWWDL | 80% | 46.3% | Away ❌ | N/A | 0 – 0 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | LDLDD |
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
vs
Waldhof Mannheim
|
WLWWL | 75% | 33.7% | Away ✅ | N/A | 1 – 5 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | DLLLL |
SV Meppen
vs
Stuttgart II
|
DDDLL | 74% | 29.7% | Home ❌ | N/A | 1 – 1 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | WLDLD |
SSV Jahn Regensburg
vs
Havelse
|
LLLLD | 86% | 63% | Home ✅ | N/A | 5 – 0 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | LLDLW |
Würzburger Kickers
vs
Hansa Rostock
|
WDWLD | 76% | 36.1% | Home ❌ | N/A | 0 – 2 FT |
| 10/10 17:30 | WWWLW |
MSV Duisburg
vs
Hoffenheim II
|
LWWDL | 87% | 64.7% | Home ✅ | N/A | 3 – 2 FT |
| 11/10 14:30 | LLWLW |
FC Ingolstadt 04
vs
SV Wehen
|
LWLDD | 79% | 44.1% | Home ❌ | N/A | 2 – 4 FT |
| 11/10 17:30 | WLDWL |
Alemannia Aachen
vs
FC Viktoria Köln
|
WWWLW | 77% | 37.8% | Home ❌ | N/A | 2 – 5 FT |
| 11/10 20:30 | LWWDW |
Fortuna Düsseldorf
vs
Verl
|
WDWWL | 78% | 40.3% | Home ❌ | N/A | 2 – 2 FT |