Our model gives FC Rot-WeiΓ Erfurt win a 92% confidence rating
Germany Regionalliga Northeast Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches β’ Next 20 Days β’ 9 Matches β’ Round 13 β’ Updated 1 hour ago β’ UTC+3
Nordost, Round 13
Friday, October 16
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | WDWWD |
FC Rot-WeiΓ Erfurt
vs
FSV Zwickau
|
WDLLD | 92% | 76.8% | Home | N/A | β |
| 20:00 | DDWLL |
Hertha BSC II
vs
RSV Eintracht
|
LLLLL | 88% | 68.2% | Home | N/A | β |
| 20:00 | LLDLL |
Tasmania Berlin
vs
SV Babelsberg 03
|
WLWDL | 78% | 39.9% | Away | N/A | β |
Saturday, October 17
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | DLDWW |
BFC Preussen
vs
Altglienicke
|
LWWWL | 75% | 32.8% | Away | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | LWDDL |
Lokomotive Leipzig
vs
BSG Chemie Leipzig
|
LWLWD | 79% | 43.7% | Home | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | WWLLL |
Luckenwalde
vs
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
|
WWLLW | 83% | 53.5% | Away | N/A | β |
Sunday, October 18
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | LDWWW |
Erzgebirge Aue
vs
Hallescher FC
|
WWWDW | 80% | 45.5% | Home | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | WWWDW |
BFC Dynamo
vs
Chemnitzer FC
|
WWLWD | 79% | 42.4% | Home | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | LLLLL |
Magdeburg II
vs
Greifswalder FC
|
LWWDD | 75% | 33.8% | Home | N/A | β |
Top Trends from Regionalliga Northeast Teams
Our model gives Chemnitzer FC win a 92% confidence rating
Our model gives BFC Dynamo win a 92% confidence rating
Our model gives Hertha BSC II win a 88% confidence rating
Our model gives Altglienicke win a 87% confidence rating
RSV Eintracht have failed to win in their last 9 matches
In their 10 most recent matches, Tasmania Berlin have achieved just 1 wins
Predictlix Regionalliga Northeast Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Hallescher FC versus RSV Eintracht carries the sharpest edge in this window at 87.5% model probability, a 92 confidence rating and a +10.1pp gap over the market's 77.4% implied chance at 1.15. The hosts sit third against a side bottom of the form table, with home and away lambdas of 2.2607 and 0.4888. FSV Zwickau vs Tasmania Berlin offers 62.5% at 1.57, while FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs Magdeburg II lands at 56.9% at 1.8. Back the Hallescher home win as the anchor.
Model Track Record in This League
PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine has settled 105 matches in this league, updated 2026-09-27, and the sample sits comfortably above the small-sample threshold. Match winner accuracy reached 56.2% (59/105), while BTTS landed at 55.2% (58/105) and Over/Under 2.5 at 48.6% (51/105). Correct score remains the weakest area at 9.5% (10/105). Double chance proved the sturdiest indicator at 81.9% (86/105). Draw picks converted just 32.1% (9/28), high-confidence selections 57.5% (n=369), and medium-confidence calls 33.2% (n=184).
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Hallescher FC's trip to Erzgebirge Aue carries the window's strongest Over lean at 59.7%, with lambdas of 2.2324 and 1.7585 pointing to goals at both ends. By contrast, Luckenwalde versus FC Carl Zeiss Jena tilts Under 2.5 at 53.5%, reflecting Luckenwalde's 0.5421 attacking lambda against Jena's 1.518. FSV Zwickau against Tasmania Berlin also leans Under at 47.8%, where Tasmania's 0.7538 lambda underscores their blunt edge. Back Over 2.5 in Aue, though no price is listed, so treat the 59.7% as your guide.
Streak & Momentum Signals
RSV Eintracht arrive at Hallescher FC without a win in their last 9 matches, while Luckenwalde carry 8 consecutive defeats into their trip to BSG Chemie Leipzig. Both remain in the RELEGATION ZONE and must win. At the other end, BFC Dynamo's form reads WWDWW and Hallescher FC's WWWDW, marking the window's longest active winning sequences. Note that partial data covers three fixtures, so some streaks rest on shorter samples than usual.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Hallescher FC's defensive record stands out with 0.8 conceded per game and 5 clean sheets, while FC Rot-WeiΓ Erfurt pair 3.3 scored per game with 1.0 conceded and 3 clean sheets. Luckenwalde leak 3.3 per game with zero clean sheets, and Tasmania Berlin concede 2.6 with just 1 clean sheet. RSV Eintracht ship 2.5 per game and remain winless in 9 matches.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Hallescher FC sit third chasing a Champions League spot, while RSV Eintracht are in the RELEGATION ZONE and must win after failing to win in their last 9 matches. Erzgebirge Aue and Hallescher FC both occupy European and Champions League positions respectively, so their Nordost - 13 clash carries real weight. At the bottom, Luckenwalde prop up the table on 3 pts and must win, arriving on 8 consecutive defeats. BSG Chemie Leipzig, 14th, also need points in their relegation battle.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Hallescher FC anchor the PredictLix acca, priced at 1.15 for a home win over RSV Eintracht, with the model assigning 92 confidence and an 87.5% probability. FSV Zwickau follow at 1.57 against Tasmania Berlin, then FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 1.8 versus Magdeburg II. Combined odds across all three legs sit at 3.25. Back this treble at 3.25, though note the Zwickau and Hallescher contests carry only partial data.
Model vs Market β Value Edges
Hallescher FC's home clash with RSV Eintracht shows the largest gap, with the PredictLix model at 87.5% against an implied 77.4%, a +10.1pp edge at 1.15. FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs Magdeburg II offers +6.8pp (56.9% vs 50.1% at 1.8), while FSV Zwickau vs Tasmania Berlin adds +5.1pp (62.5% vs 57.4% at 1.57). A positive edge signals long-term value, not a guaranteed win here. Back Hallescher FC at 1.15 with 92 confidence.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types β wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form β Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration β Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 60-69% | 65.9% | 63.6% | 11 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· <60% | 46.6% | 53.2% | 47 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 70-79% | 71.9% | 25.0% | 4 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 80+% | 84.1% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· <60% | 53.5% | 47.3% | 55 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· 60-69% | 63.5% | 37.5% | 8 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· <60% | 52.8% | 42.9% | 49 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· 60-69% | 63.2% | 42.9% | 14 |
| Correct Score Β· <60% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 63 |
| Double Chance Β· 80+% | 85.7% | 83.3% | 18 |
| Double Chance Β· 70-79% | 75.0% | 79.5% | 44 |
| Double Chance Β· 60-69% | 69.6% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Draw Predictions Β· <60% | 27.7% | 16.7% | 12 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Nordost, Round 12
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 20:00 | LWWWL |
Altglienicke
vs
BFC Dynamo
|
WWWDW | 81% | 49.2% | Home β | N/A | 0 β 1 FT |
| 09/10 20:00 | LWLWD |
BSG Chemie Leipzig
vs
Luckenwalde
|
WWLLL | 83% | 53.1% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 3 FT |
| 09/10 20:00 | WDLLD |
FSV Zwickau
vs
Tasmania Berlin
|
LLDLL | 85% | 59.1% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 0 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | DLDWW |
BFC Preussen
vs
Hertha BSC II
|
DDWLL | 81% | 48.2% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 1 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | WWLLW |
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
vs
Magdeburg II
|
LLLLL | 88% | 66.9% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 1 FT |
| 11/10 15:00 | LWWDD |
Greifswalder FC
vs
Erzgebirge Aue
|
LDWWW | 80% | 46.2% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 0 FT |
| 11/10 15:00 | WWWDW |
Hallescher FC
vs
RSV Eintracht
|
LLLLL | 92% | 84.1% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 0 FT |
| 11/10 17:00 | WLWDL |
SV Babelsberg 03
vs
Lokomotive Leipzig
|
LWDDL | 78% | 39.7% | Away β | @2.14 | 0 β 0 FT |
| 11/10 17:00 | WWLWD |
Chemnitzer FC
vs
FC Rot-WeiΓ Erfurt
|
WDWWD | 77% | 38.3% | Home β | @2.35 | 3 β 1 FT |