Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Next match: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 • 14:30 UTC+3 • Round 8 • Borussia-Park • ☀️ 11.7°C, 3 km/h clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 79% | 43.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 72% | 72.4% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 80% | 46.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 79% | 46.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 67% | 9.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.8% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 – 0.96 SC Paderborn 07 · expected total 2.35
🧠 Match Preview
Borussia Mönchengladbach host SC Paderborn 07 at Borussia-Park on Saturday with both clubs stuck in the Bundesliga's lower reaches, making this a genuine six-pointer even in round 8. Gladbach sit 18th with 0 points from 6 games, while Paderborn are 16th on 5 points from 6, so the hosts are desperate for a first result of the campaign.
The model still leans toward the home side, tipping a Home win at 43.5 percent with confidence of 79, and a 1X double chance at 72.4 percent. Recent form is poor on both sides: Gladbach's last five read LLDWL, Paderborn's DLWWL. Expected goals favour the hosts at 1.3874 against 0.9587, with recent xG of 1.59 for Gladbach and 1.24 for Paderborn. The correct-score model points to 1-0 at 9.7 percent, with 1-0 (12.02), 2-0 (9.22) and 2-1 (8.84) as the leading scorelines. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 comes in at 46.3 percent and BTTS No at 46.6 percent. Corners lean Over 9.5 at 52.8 percent, with an expected 9.9. The injury lists are long on both sides, thirteen names for Gladbach and seven for Paderborn, which tempers any read on fluency.
With no bookmaker odds in the snapshot, value can only be judged against the model's own numbers: the 1X double chance at 72.4 percent is the safest angle, while the low-scoring scorelines carry the most upside. The honest caveat is that a 43.5 percent home probability is far from dominant, and a winless, injury-hit Gladbach side offers real risk.
The model still leans toward the home side, tipping a Home win at 43.5 percent with confidence of 79, and a 1X double chance at 72.4 percent. Recent form is poor on both sides: Gladbach's last five read LLDWL, Paderborn's DLWWL. Expected goals favour the hosts at 1.3874 against 0.9587, with recent xG of 1.59 for Gladbach and 1.24 for Paderborn. The correct-score model points to 1-0 at 9.7 percent, with 1-0 (12.02), 2-0 (9.22) and 2-1 (8.84) as the leading scorelines. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 comes in at 46.3 percent and BTTS No at 46.6 percent. Corners lean Over 9.5 at 52.8 percent, with an expected 9.9. The injury lists are long on both sides, thirteen names for Gladbach and seven for Paderborn, which tempers any read on fluency.
With no bookmaker odds in the snapshot, value can only be judged against the model's own numbers: the 1X double chance at 72.4 percent is the safest angle, while the low-scoring scorelines carry the most upside. The honest caveat is that a 43.5 percent home probability is far from dominant, and a winless, injury-hit Gladbach side offers real risk.
Updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Form (last 5)
L1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2 · 18/10/2026L1. FC Köln (A) 1–2 · 11/10/2026DFC St. Pauli (A) 1–1 · 03/10/2026WSportfreunde Siegen (A) 3–0 · 24/09/2026LFSV Mainz 05 (H) 3–4 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)3.30
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.59
xG against (recent avg)2.15
Elo strength rating1352
Players out13
SC Paderborn 07
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.90
xG against (recent avg)1.43
Elo strength rating1370
Players out7
Borussia MönchengladbachSC Paderborn 07
L1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2 · 18/10/2026L1. FC Köln (A) 1–2 · 11/10/2026DFC St. Pauli (A) 1–1 · 03/10/2026WSportfreunde Siegen (A) 3–0 · 24/09/2026LFSV Mainz 05 (H) 3–4 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
3.30
1.50
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.59
0.90
xG against (recent avg)
2.15
1.43
Elo strength rating
1352
1370
Players out
13
7
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Lost 2 in a row
Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6
SC Paderborn 07
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Worst defence (3.30 conceded/game)
SC Paderborn 07
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home · SC Paderborn 07 away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home)
Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–3L
L 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)3.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
SC Paderborn 07 (away)
Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–1L
D 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home)SC Paderborn 07 (away)
L 3
D 2
L 1
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
3.30
1.70
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
2
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Borussia Mönchengladbach 6 wins · 0 draws · SC Paderborn 07 1 win · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 3 of 7
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2021 | SC Paderborn 07 | 3–1 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Friendlies Clubs |
| 22 Aug 2020 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 2–0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Friendlies Clubs |
| 22 Aug 2020 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0–2 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Friendlies Clubs |
| 20 Jun 2020 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1–3 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 18 Dec 2019 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 2–0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 01 Mar 2015 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 2–0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 27 Sep 2014 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1–2 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 11/10 | 1. FC Köln | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 03/10 | FC St. Pauli | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 24/09 | Sportfreunde Siegen | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 19/09 | FSV Mainz 05 | Home | 3–4 | L |
SC Paderborn 07
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Werder Bremen | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 10/10 | VfB Stuttgart | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 30/09 | DC United | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 20/09 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Borussia Dortmund | Away | 0–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach #18 · 0 pts — SC Paderborn 07 #16 · 5 pts
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–6L
L 6
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)3.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.59
xG against (avg)2.15
Corners for (avg)5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1
SC Paderborn 07
Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–3L
W 1
D 2
L 3
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.90
xG against (avg)1.43
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Borussia MönchengladbachSC Paderborn 07
L 6
W 1
D 2
L 3
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
3.30
1.50
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
2
4
Yellow cards
19
8
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
1.59
0.90
xG against (avg)
2.15
1.43
Corners for (avg)
5.00
5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
0/0
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
SC Paderborn 07
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- ❌ J. Castrop — Shoulder Injury
- ❌ F. C. Chiarodia — Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Cvancara — Groin Injury
- ❌ Y. Konoplya — Knee Injury
- ❌ Z. Uno — Muscle Injury
- ❌ D. Hashioka — Neck Injury
- ❌ E. Leopold — Knee Injury
- ❌ N. Kuhn — Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Kleindienst — Red Card
- ❌ F. Fleck — Muscle Injury
- ❌ F. Honorat — Muscle Injury
- ❌ K. Itakura — Ankle Injury
- ❌ J. Leszczynski — Knee Injury
SC Paderborn 07
- ❌ N. Awortwie-Grant — Knee Injury
- ❌ L. Eickel — Back Injury
- ❌ T. Gayret — Knee Injury
- ❌ S. Michel — Muscle Injury
- ❌ F. Gotze — Concussion
- ❌ S. Klaas — Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. Hoffmeier — Muscle Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws