Predictions β†’ Germany Bundesliga

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 13:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 6 β€’ Weserstadion β€’ β›… 12.9Β°C, 16 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 84% 58.2% 1.84 1xBet 55.7% +2.5 pp
Double Chance 1X 76% 77.8% 1.27 1xBet 77.6% +0.2 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.3% 1.55 William Hill 62.2% -12.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 50% 1.57 Betano 62.3% -12.3 pp
Correct Score 2-0 64% 7.9% 11.25 Betano 4.8% +3.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.8% 1.95 Betano 48.7% +4.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.84 – 1.00 SC Paderborn 07 Β· expected total 2.84

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 at the Weserstadion on Saturday, 17 October 2026, with round six of the Bundesliga offering the home side a clear chance to consolidate a solid start. Bremen sit 7th on 8 points from 5 games, while Paderborn are 15th with just 4 points, so the stakes favour the hosts pushing upward rather than the visitors chasing a surprise.

The model leans heavily on that gap. Bremen's recent form reads DLWDW against Paderborn's LWWLL, and the expected goals split is stark: 1.841 for the home side versus 0.9981 for the away side, with recent xG of 0.91 and 0.64 respectively. The table and the underlying numbers agree, even if Bremen's injury list is long, including F. Agu, K. Topp, M. Weiser and J. Njinmah, while Paderborn are missing N. Awortwie-Grant, L. Eickel and T. Gayret among others. History adds colour: the last five meetings produced 2-2, 0-1, 3-4, 1-4 and 1-5, a reminder that this fixture rarely stays quiet.

The headline tip is a home win at 58.2 percent probability and 1.84 odds, with the 1X double chance at 77.8 percent. Both teams to score is priced at 1.55 with a 49.3 percent model probability, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 50 percent with 1.57 odds. The 2-0 correct score is the model's top pick at 7.9 percent, though 2-1 at 9.92 and 1-0 at 9.72 in the top-scores list are almost identical. Corners offer a quieter angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 52.8 percent with an expected 9.8.

The honest caveat is that Bremen's injury list is unusually deep and their recent xG of 0.91 is modest, so the 1.84 home price carries real risk if the absences bite.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Werder Bremen

Form (last 5)
DBorussia Dortmund (A) 2–2 Β· 09/10/2026LTwente (A) 0–7 Β· 02/10/2026WFC Augsburg (H) 3–2 Β· 19/09/2026D1. FC KΓΆln (A) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026WRB Leipzig (H) 3–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.53
xG against (recent avg)1.04
Elo strength rating1423
Players out10

SC Paderborn 07

Form (last 5)
LVfB Stuttgart (H) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026WDC United (A) 1–0 Β· 30/09/2026W1899 Hoffenheim (H) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (A) 0–3 Β· 12/09/2026LSC Freiburg (H) 0–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.37
xG against (recent avg)0.84
Elo strength rating1365
Players out7
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.00
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.53
0.37
xG against (recent avg)
1.04
0.84
Elo strength rating
1423
1365
Players out
10
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Werder Bremen

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

SC Paderborn 07

BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Bundesliga

Werder Bremen

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

SC Paderborn 07

Worst attack (0.60 goals/game) 2nd worst BTTS rate (17%) Worst Over 2.5 rate (33%)

Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Werder Bremen at home Β· SC Paderborn 07 away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Werder Bremen (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)3.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

SC Paderborn 07 (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–1L
D 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Werder Bremen (home)SC Paderborn 07 (away)
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
3.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.50
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
7.9%
2–1
7.9%
1–0
7.7%
3–0
4.8%
3–1
4.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

SC Paderborn 07 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Werder Bremen 4 wins Β· avg 4 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 8

2
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Aug 2026 Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 Friendlies Clubs
30 Oct 2024 SC Paderborn 07 0–1 Werder Bremen DFB Pokal
22 Jan 2022 SC Paderborn 07 3–4 Werder Bremen 2. Bundesliga
15 Aug 2021 Werder Bremen 1–4 SC Paderborn 07 2. Bundesliga
13 Jun 2020 SC Paderborn 07 1–5 Werder Bremen Bundesliga
08 Dec 2019 Werder Bremen 0–1 SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga
26 Apr 2015 SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Werder Bremen Bundesliga
29 Nov 2014 Werder Bremen 4–0 SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Werder Bremen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Borussia Dortmund Away 2–2 D
02/10 Twente Away 0–7 L
19/09 FC Augsburg Home 3–2 W
12/09 1. FC KΓΆln Away 1–1 D
05/09 RB Leipzig Home 3–1 W

SC Paderborn 07

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 VfB Stuttgart Home 0–2 L
30/09 DC United Away 1–0 W
20/09 1899 Hoffenheim Home 3–1 W
12/09 Borussia Dortmund Away 0–3 L
05/09 SC Freiburg Home 0–1 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Bundesliga

Werder Bremen #7 Β· 8 pts β€”  SC Paderborn 07 #15 Β· 4 pts

Werder Bremen

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L
W 2
D 2
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.53
xG against (avg)1.04
Corners for (avg)4.10
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

SC Paderborn 07

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–3L
W 1
D 1
L 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.37
xG against (avg)0.84
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07
W 2
D 2
L 1
W 1
D 1
L 3
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.40
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
4
Yellow cards
7
7
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.53
0.37
xG against (avg)
1.04
0.84
Corners for (avg)
4.10
4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Werder Bremen

1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
3
3
76-90
6
scored conceded

SC Paderborn 07

1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Werder Bremen

  • ❌ F. Agu β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ K. Topp β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Weiser β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ O. Wojcik β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Njinmah β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ J. Stage β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ S. Lynen β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ S. Alvero β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ S. Musah β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. N'Diaye β€” Groin Injury

SC Paderborn 07

  • ❌ N. Awortwie-Grant β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Eickel β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ T. Gayret β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Michel β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Gotze β€” Concussion
  • ❌ S. Klaas β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Hoffmeier β€” Muscle Injury

More: Bundesliga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws