Predictions β†’ Germany Bundesliga

SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Next match: Sun, 20 Sep 2026 β€’ 17:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 4 β€’ Home Deluxe Arena

🧠 Match Preview

Paderborn sit 16th with a single point from three games, while Hoffenheim arrive 13th on 3 points, so this is an early-season scrap where the visitors can create breathing room and the hosts are already looking over their shoulder. The form lines are unkind to Paderborn: LLDWD against Hoffenheim's LWLLW, and the underlying numbers lean the same way. The model gives Paderborn just 0.812 expected goals against Hoffenheim's 0.947, with recent xG splits of 0.75 for the home side and 1.49 for the away side β€” a clear gap in attacking output. Paderborn's injury list is also long, with N. Awortwie-Grant, L. Eickel, T. Gayret, S. Michel, F. Gotze and S. Klaas all unavailable, while Hoffenheim are without F. Asllani, T. Lemperle and A. Prass.

The headline tip is an away win at 47.4% probability, priced at 1.76, with the double chance X2 landing at 71.2%. The model also leans toward a tighter game: Under 2.5 goals at 54.8% (odds 2.76) and both teams to score "No" at 55.7% (odds 2.66). The correct-score picture points to 0-1 as the single most likely outcome at 14.99%, with 0-2 at 7.72% and 1-2 at 6.27%. Corners offer a separate angle, with an expected 11.6 and Over 9.5 at 63.9%.

The honest caveat: Hoffenheim's own form is patchy, and a low-scoring away win is a narrow path β€” the 1.76 price leaves little margin for error if Paderborn's home crowd drags them into a scrappier, higher-variance game.

Updated 20 Sep 2026, 16:36 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOdds
Match Result (1X2) Away 79% 47.4% 1.76
Double Chance X2 71% 71.2% 1.25
BTTS No 84% 55.7% 2.66
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 54.8% 2.76
Correct Score 0-1 72% 12.4% 11.00
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.6 exp.) Over 9.5 75% 63.9% 1.58

⚽ Model expected goals: SC Paderborn 07 0.81 – 0.95 1899 Hoffenheim Β· expected total 1.76

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time.

βš–οΈ Model vs Market

MarketTipModelMarket impliedEdge
1X2 Away 47.4% 55.9% -8.5 pp
BTTS No 55.7% 35% +20.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.8% 33.3% +21.5 pp

Edge = our calibrated probability minus the bookmaker's implied probability (margin-normalized). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Factor1899 HoffenheimSC Paderborn 07
Form (last 5)LOFI (A) 0–2 Β· 17/09/2026WVfB Stuttgart (H) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (H) 2–3 Β· 05/09/2026L1. FC KΓΆln (A) 2–3 Β· 29/08/2026WErzgebirge Aue (A) 4–0 Β· 22/08/2026L? (A) 0–3 Β· 12/09/2026L? (H) 0–1 Β· 05/09/2026D? (A) 0–0 Β· 29/08/2026W? (A) 4–2 Β· 23/08/2026D? (A) 2–2 Β· 08/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)20
Goals conceded (season avg)2.31.3
Win streak (best this season)00
xG for (recent avg)1.10.55
xG against (recent avg)1.470.91
Elo strength rating15891345.1
Players out36

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish β€” into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

1899 Hoffenheim

BTTS 4 of 6 Over 2.5: 5 of 6 Scored in 5 of 6 Clean sheets: 1 of 6

SC Paderborn 07

Lost 2 in a row Winless 3 BTTS 2 of 6 Over 2.5: 3 of 6 Scored in 3 of 6 Clean sheets: 2 of 6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim

3rd best BTTS rate (67%)

SC Paderborn 07

2nd worst attack (0.00 goals/game) Worst Over 2.5 rate (50%)

Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

SC Paderborn 07 (at home)1899 Hoffenheim (away)
Played11
Wins–Draws–Losses0-0-10-0-1
Goals scored (avg)02
Goals conceded (avg)13
Clean sheets00
Failed to score10

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

ScoreProbability
0–112.4%
0–26.4%
1–25.2%
0–32%
1–31.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

1899 Hoffenheim 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· SC Paderborn 07 0 wins Β· avg 1.5 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 4

DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
23 May 2020 SC Paderborn 07 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga
01 Nov 2019 1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga
21 Mar 2015 SC Paderborn 07 0–0 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga
25 Oct 2014 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

1899 Hoffenheim

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/09 OFI Away 0–2 L
12/09 VfB Stuttgart Home 2–1 W
05/09 Borussia Dortmund Home 2–3 L
29/08 1. FC KΓΆln Away 2–3 L
22/08 Erzgebirge Aue Away 4–0 W

SC Paderborn 07

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12/09 Borussia Dortmund Away 0–3 L
05/09 β€” Home 0–1 L
29/08 β€” Away 0–0 D
23/08 β€” Away 4–2 W
08/08 β€” Away 2–2 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Bundesliga

1899 HoffenheimSC Paderborn 07
League position1316
Points31
Played33
Wins–Draws–Losses1-0-20-1-2
Goals scored (avg)20
Goals conceded (avg)2.31.3
Clean sheets01
Failed to score03
Penalties (scored/missed)0/10/0
Yellow cards76
Red cards00
xG for (avg)1.10.55
xG against (avg)1.470.91
Corners for (avg)10.35.1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

1899 Hoffenheim

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

SC Paderborn 07

1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

1899 Hoffenheim

  • ❌ F. Asllani β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Lemperle β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Prass β€” Muscle Injury

SC Paderborn 07

  • ❌ N. Awortwie-Grant β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Eickel β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ T. Gayret β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Michel β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Gotze β€” Concussion
  • ❌ S. Klaas β€” Muscle Injury

More: Bundesliga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws