Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund welcome Werder Bremen to Signal Iduna Park on Friday night sitting top of the Bundesliga on 12 points from 4 games, while the visitors arrive 8th on 7 points. The stakes are simple: Dortmund can protect their early grip on first place, Bremen can make a statement against the leaders.

The model leans heavily on form. Dortmund have won all five of their last five (WWWWW), Bremen have been patchier (WDWLW). The attacking numbers back it up: Dortmund are expected to score 2.2191 goals against Bremen's 0.8024, with recent expected goals of 1.83 for the hosts and just 0.77 for the away side. The head-to-head record is one-sided too — Dortmund won the last meeting 2-0 in Bremen, and the previous home fixture 3-0.

The headline tip is a home win at 72.4 percent probability with 91 confidence, and the double chance 1X sits at 88 percent. Over 2.5 goals is rated 53.9 percent, while both teams to score is only 48.9 percent — the model clearly expects Bremen to struggle offensively. The most likely correct score is 2-0 at 9.8 percent, with 1-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners are tipped over 9.5 at 58.8 percent, with 10.8 expected.

The caveat: both squads are heavily depleted, with nine Dortmund players and eight Bremen players listed as injured. That depth risk is real, and a 48.9 percent BTTS call is close enough to a coin flip that it should not be treated as a banker.