Predictions → Germany Bundesliga

1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

Next match: Sun, 11 Oct 2026 • 13:30 UTC+3 • Round 5 • RheinEnergieStadion

🧠 Match Preview

Sunday's Rhine derby at the RheinEnergieStadion pits 13th-placed Köln, on 4 points from 4 games, against a Borussia Mönchengladbach side rooted to 18th with 0 points from 4. The stakes are simple: Köln can pull clear of the early drop zone, while Gladbach are chasing a first point of the campaign.

The model reads this as a home-controlled fixture. Köln's recent expected goals sit at 1.95 against Gladbach's 1.8, but the full-match goal expectations diverge sharply at 1.9918 for the hosts versus 0.9824 for the visitors. Form backs that up: Köln arrive with LDLWW, Gladbach with LLLLLW. Both squads are depleted, with six absentees for Köln and nine for Gladbach, though the visitors' list is the heavier burden.

The headline tip is a home win at 62.9 percent with 87 confidence, and the double chance 1X lands at 82.3 percent. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 56.6 percent, while both teams to score sits on a knife-edge at 50.4 percent. The correct-score model favours 2-0 at 8.1 percent, with 2-1 and 1-0 close behind. Corners look the most generous angle: over 9.5 is rated 66.2 percent against an expected 12.

Value hunting means comparing those model numbers to whatever the bookmaker posts, since no odds are quoted here. The obvious risk is the derby factor and that 50.4 percent BTTS figure, which hints Gladbach can still find a goal even in defeat.

Updated 22 Sep 2026, 04:06 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOdds
Match Result (1X2) Home 87% 62.9% —
Double Chance 1X 79% 82.3% —
BTTS Yes 82% 50.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 85% 56.6% —
Correct Score 2-0 64% 8.1% —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12 exp.) Over 9.5 77% 66.2% —

⚽ Model expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.99 – 0.98 Borussia Mönchengladbach · expected total 2.97

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Factor1. FC KölnBorussia Mönchengladbach
Form (last 5)LHamburger SV (A) 1–2 · 19/09/2026DWerder Bremen (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026LVfB Stuttgart (A) 1–4 · 04/09/2026W1899 Hoffenheim (H) 3–2 · 29/08/2026WWürzburger Kickers (A) 2–1 · 24/08/2026LFSV Mainz 05 (H) 3–4 · 19/09/2026LSC Freiburg (A) 0–5 · 12/09/2026LSV Elversberg (H) 3–4 · 05/09/2026LRB Leipzig (A) 0–3 · 29/08/2026WSchott Mainz (A) 5–0 · 23/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.51.5
Goals conceded (season avg)2.34
Win streak (best this season)10
xG for (recent avg)0.641.32
xG against (recent avg)0.622.25
Elo strength rating1386.11376
Players out69

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish — into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

1. FC Köln

Winless 3 BTTS 6 of 6 Over 2.5: 5 of 6 Scored in 6 of 6 Clean sheets: 0 of 6

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Lost 4 in a row Winless 4 BTTS 3 of 6 Over 2.5: 6 of 6 Scored in 4 of 6 Clean sheets: 1 of 6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga

1. FC Köln

Best BTTS rate (100%)

Borussia Mönchengladbach

2nd worst defence (4.00 conceded/game) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

1. FC Köln (at home)Borussia Mönchengladbach (away)
Played22
Wins–Draws–Losses1-1-00-0-2
Goals scored (avg)20
Goals conceded (avg)1.54
Clean sheets00
Failed to score02

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road — the split that matters for this fixture.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

ScoreProbability
2–08.1%
2–18%
1–07.3%
3–05.4%
3–15.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

1. FC Köln 4 wins · 3 draws · Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 wins · avg 4.3 goals · BTTS in 9 of 10

DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
21 Mar 2026 1. FC Köln 3–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga
08 Nov 2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 1. FC Köln Bundesliga
09 Mar 2024 Borussia Monchengladbach 3–3 1. FC Köln Bundesliga
22 Oct 2023 1. FC Köln 3–1 Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga
02 Apr 2023 1. FC Köln 0–0 Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga
09 Oct 2022 Borussia Monchengladbach 5–2 1. FC Köln Bundesliga
16 Apr 2022 Borussia Monchengladbach 1–3 1. FC Köln Bundesliga
27 Nov 2021 1. FC Köln 4–1 Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga
06 Feb 2021 Borussia Monchengladbach 1–2 1. FC Köln Bundesliga
03 Oct 2020 1. FC Köln 1–3 Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga

📈 Recent Form

1. FC Köln

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Hamburger SV Away 1–2 L
12/09 Werder Bremen Home 1–1 D
04/09 VfB Stuttgart Away 1–4 L
29/08 1899 Hoffenheim Home 3–2 W
24/08 Würzburger Kickers Away 2–1 W

Borussia Mönchengladbach

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 FSV Mainz 05 Home 3–4 L
12/09 SC Freiburg Away 0–5 L
05/09 SV Elversberg Home 3–4 L
29/08 RB Leipzig Away 0–3 L
23/08 Schott Mainz Away 5–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga

1. FC KölnBorussia Mönchengladbach
League position1318
Points40
Played44
Wins–Draws–Losses1-1-20-0-4
Goals scored (avg)1.51.5
Goals conceded (avg)2.34
Clean sheets00
Failed to score02
Penalties (scored/missed)0/11/1
Yellow cards813
Red cards01
xG for (avg)0.641.32
xG against (avg)0.622.25
Corners for (avg)6.69.4

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

1. FC Köln

0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Borussia Mönchengladbach

0-15
2
5
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

1. FC Köln

  • ❌ T. Hubers — Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Sebulonsen — Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Waldschmidt — Muscle Injury
  • ❌ T. Dallinga — Illness
  • ❌ S. El Mala — Illness
  • ❌ P. Okon-Engstler — Injury

Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • ❌ J. Castrop — Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ F. C. Chiarodia — Muscle Injury
  • ❌ T. Cvancara — Groin Injury
  • ❌ Y. Konoplya — Knee Injury
  • ❌ Z. Uno — Muscle Injury
  • ❌ D. Hashioka — Neck Injury
  • ❌ E. Leopold — Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Kleindienst — Red Card
  • ❌ N. Kuhn — Muscle Injury

More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws