Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 15:30 UTC+3 • Round 6 • Borussia-Park • 🌤 12.4°C, 17 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 78% | 41.2% | 2.02 | Betano | 50.8% | -9.6 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 72% | 72.6% | 1.26 | 1xBet | 77.8% | -5.2 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 84% | 55.8% | 1.40 | William Hill | 68.2% | -12.4 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 57.3% | 1.42 | Betano | 67.9% | -10.6 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | 59% | 5.3% | 9.50 | Bet365 | 5.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.1 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 67% | 57.2% | 1.85 | Betano | 51.7% | +5.5 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.88 – 1.39 1899 Hoffenheim · expected total 3.28
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans away. Hoffenheim are tipped to win at 41.2 percent with confidence of 78, priced at 2.02, and the double chance covering the away side and the draw sits at 72.6 percent. The goal numbers explain why. Gladbach's recent expected goals stand at 1.85 against Hoffenheim's 2.01, and the visitors' attacking edge shows in the scoreline projections, with 1-2 the favoured correct score at 5.3 percent and 6.94 in the top-scores list. Both teams to score lands at 55.8 percent (1.4), while Over 2.5 goals comes in at 57.3 percent (1.42). Corners look lively too, with an expected 12.1 and Over 9.5 at 57.2 percent.
The value question is whether 2.02 underrates a Hoffenheim side that has actually created more than its opponent recently. The obvious caveat is Gladbach's injury list, which is brutally long, including F. Honorat, K. Itakura and T. Kleindienst, so the home XI could be makeshift. But with both defences leaking, the goals markets may be the safer route than trusting either team's result outright.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1899 Hoffenheim
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1899 Hoffenheim
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1899 Hoffenheim
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home · 1899 Hoffenheim away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home)
1899 Hoffenheim (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
1899 Hoffenheim 2 wins · 2 draws · Borussia Mönchengladbach 6 wins · avg 4.8 goals · BTTS in 9 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4–0 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5–1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 03 May 2025 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4–4 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 21 Dec 2024 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1–2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 20 Apr 2024 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4–3 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 02 Dec 2023 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 2–1 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 28 Jan 2023 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1–4 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 06 Aug 2022 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 3–1 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 14 May 2022 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 5–1 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 18 Dec 2021 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1–1 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | FSV Mainz 05 | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 12/09 | SC Freiburg | Away | 0–5 | L |
| 05/09 | SV Elversberg | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 29/08 | RB Leipzig | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 23/08 | Schott Mainz | Away | 5–0 | W |
1899 Hoffenheim
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Hamburger SV | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 20/09 | SC Paderborn 07 | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 17/09 | OFI | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | VfB Stuttgart | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 05/09 | Borussia Dortmund | Home | 2–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach #18 · 0 pts — 1899 Hoffenheim #17 · 3 pts
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1899 Hoffenheim
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1899 Hoffenheim
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- ❌ J. Castrop — Shoulder Injury
- ❌ F. C. Chiarodia — Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Cvancara — Groin Injury
- ❌ Y. Konoplya — Knee Injury
- ❌ Z. Uno — Muscle Injury
- ❌ D. Hashioka — Neck Injury
- ❌ E. Leopold — Knee Injury
- ❌ N. Kuhn — Muscle Injury
- ❌ F. Honorat — Muscle Injury
- ❌ K. Itakura — Ankle Injury
- ❌ T. Kleindienst — Injury
1899 Hoffenheim
- ❌ F. Asllani — Injury
- ❌ T. Lemperle — Red Card
- ❌ A. Prass — Muscle Injury
- ❌ A. Hajdari — Muscle Injury
- ❌ Bernardo — Achilles Tendon Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws