1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 15:30 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Avnet-Arena • ☁️ 4.5°C, 9 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Betano2.40 | 42.6% | +2.2% |
| Double Chance | 12 | William Hill1.30 | 74.4% | -3.3% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.50 | 62.5% · No 37.5% | -6.3% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Pinnacle1.62 | 59.7% · Under 40.3% | -3.3% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Betano9.75 | 9.4% | -8.4% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.3 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 62.2% · Under 37.8% | — |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
1. FC Magdeburg · Home
1. FC Magdeburg have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, including a 6-1 home win over Karlsruher SC and a 3-0 home win over Hannover 96. Their model expected goals of 1.77 for this fixture is the highest figure in the matchup.
FC St. Pauli · Away
FC St. Pauli have drawn three of their last five, with the 0-0 at Darmstadt and 1-1 at Hannover showing a tendency to share points on the road. Their recent xG for of 0.83 is well below Magdeburg's 1.07 over the same window.
Magdeburg home edge
The latest H2H, a 1-0 Magdeburg win on 2024-02-10, followed a 0-0 in the reverse fixture, so this pairing has produced tight scorelines. Magdeburg's home form is the standout: 6-1 over Karlsruher SC and 3-0 over Hannover 96 in their last five. St. Pauli's away draws at Darmstadt (0-0) and Hannover (1-1) show they can hold firm, but their recent xG for of 0.83 trails Magdeburg's 1.07. The model's 46.4% home probability makes a narrow Magdeburg win realistic: 1. FC Magdeburg win. The evidence supports 1. FC Magdeburg win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.77 – 1.35 FC St. Pauli · expected total 3.12
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
1. FC Magdeburg
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
1. FC Magdeburg
FC St. Pauli
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: 2. Bundesliga
1. FC Magdeburg
FC St. Pauli
Rank among 18 2. Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
1. FC Magdeburg at home · FC St. Pauli away, the split that matters for this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg (home)
FC St. Pauli (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
1. FC Magdeburg 1 win · 1 draw · FC St. Pauli 5 wins · avg 2.9 goals · BTTS in 4 of 7
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2024 | FC Magdeburg | 1–0 | FC St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga |
| 27 Aug 2023 | FC St. Pauli | 0–0 | FC Magdeburg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 18 Feb 2023 | FC Magdeburg | 1–2 | FC St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga |
| 14 Aug 2022 | FC St. Pauli | 3–0 | FC Magdeburg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 07 Aug 2021 | FC Magdeburg | 2–3 | FC St. Pauli | DFB Pokal |
| 22 Dec 2018 | FC St. Pauli | 4–1 | FC Magdeburg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 05 Aug 2018 | FC Magdeburg | 1–2 | FC St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | SV Darmstadt 98 | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 28/10 | Bayern München | Away | 1–6 | L |
| 24/10 | Karlsruher SC | Home | 6–1 | W |
| 18/10 | Dynamo Dresden | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 10/10 | Hannover 96 | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 18/09 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 06/09 | Hertha BSC | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 30/08 | Holstein Kiel | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 23/08 | Bahlinger SC | Away | 4–0 | W |
FC St. Pauli
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 23/10 | SV Darmstadt 98 | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 17/10 | Hannover 96 | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 11/10 | Karlsruher SC | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 20/09 | Energie Cottbus | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | VfL Wolfsburg | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 04/09 | Arminia Bielefeld | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 30/08 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 23/08 | Rot-Weiß Essen | Away | 0–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: 2. Bundesliga
1. FC Magdeburg #5 · 17 pts · FC St. Pauli #8 · 12 pts
1. FC Magdeburg
FC St. Pauli
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
1. FC Magdeburg
FC St. Pauli
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: 2. Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws