RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 13:30 UTC+3 • Round 7 • Red Bull Arena • 🌤 13°C, 11 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 89% | 70.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 82% | 86.4% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 84% | 54.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80% | 47.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 74% | 13.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 64% | 54.6% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: RB Leipzig 1.74 – 0.58 SV Elversberg · expected total 2.32
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans heavily on Leipzig's superior attacking output. Their recent expected goals figure of 2.52 dwarfs Elversberg's 1.48, and the season-long picture is even starker: 1.7378 expected goals for the hosts against just 0.5809 for the away side. Form is mixed — Leipzig's WLWLL against Elversberg's LLDLW — and both camps carry injury concerns, with eight names listed for Leipzig and four for Elversberg, including J. Gyamerah as doubtful.
The headline tip is a home win at 70.2 percent with 89 confidence, and the double chance 1X sits at 86.4 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 54.4 percent, while Under 2.5 goals edges it at 47.4 percent — a reminder that this isn't expected to be a shootout. The most likely correct scores are 1-0 at 16.14 and 2-0 at 14.89, with 2-1 at 8.65 and 3-0 at 8.63. Corners look lively: Over 9.5 is tipped at 54.6 percent off an expected 10.7.
The obvious risk is Leipzig's patchy form and a crowded injury list — the model's edge is real, but a low-scoring home win is the most probable outcome, not a comfortable rout.
Updated 15 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
RB Leipzig
SV Elversberg
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
RB Leipzig
SV Elversberg
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
SV Elversberg
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
RB Leipzig at home · SV Elversberg away — the split that matters for this fixture.
RB Leipzig (home)
SV Elversberg (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
RB Leipzig 1 win · 0 draws · SV Elversberg 1 win · avg 1.5 goals · BTTS in 0 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar 2014 | RB Leipzig | 2–0 | SV Elversberg | 3. Liga |
| 07 Sep 2013 | SV Elversberg | 1–0 | RB Leipzig | 3. Liga |
📈 Recent Form
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Home | 6–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 13/09 | Hamburger SV | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 10/09 | Como | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 05/09 | Werder Bremen | Away | 1–3 | L |
SV Elversberg
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Union Berlin | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 24/09 | Waldhof Mannheim | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | FC Schalke 04 | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 13/09 | Bayern München | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Away | 4–3 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
RB Leipzig #5 · 9 pts — SV Elversberg #9 · 7 pts
RB Leipzig
SV Elversberg
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
RB Leipzig
SV Elversberg
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
RB Leipzig
- ❌ C. Baumgartner — Thigh Injury
- ❌ O. Nyland — Foot Injury
- ❌ A. Ouedraogo — Shoulder Injury
- ❌ Romulo Cardoso — Knee Injury
- ❌ V. Gebel — Knee Injury
- ❌ B. Gruda — Ankle Injury
- ❌ R. Reitz — Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. Guiu — Hamstring Injury
SV Elversberg
- ❌ L. Seifert — Ankle Injury
- ❌ T. Zimmerschied — Back Injury
- ❌ F. Onyeka — Foot Injury
- ❓ J. Gyamerah (doubtful) — Groin Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws