Predictions β†’ Germany Bundesliga

RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Next match: Sat, 10 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 5 β€’ Red Bull Arena

🧠 Match Preview

RB Leipzig host Eintracht Frankfurt at the Red Bull Arena on Saturday, with both sides stuck in the bottom half of the early Bundesliga table. Leipzig sit 9th on 6 points from 4 games, Frankfurt 10th on 5, so this is a chance for either to kick-start a climb rather than a meeting of title contenders.

The model leans firmly home. Leipzig's recent expected goals of 2.59 dwarf Frankfurt's 1.89, and the goal projections split 2.0307 to 1.2447 in the hosts' favour. That gap drives a 57.1 percent home win call at 84 confidence, plus a 77.2 percent double chance on 1X. Both teams arrive banged up: Leipzig list eight absentees including C. Baumgartner and B. Gruda, Frankfurt seven including R. Doan and A. Knauff. Form is patchy β€” Leipzig's LWLLW against Frankfurt's DWLDW β€” and the head-to-head is wild, from Leipzig's 6-0 in December 2025 to Frankfurt's 4-0 last April.

Goals look the safer angle. Over 2.5 lands at 60.3 percent, and the correct-score board is headed by 2-1 at 9.75, then 2-0 at 7.84 and 1-0 at 6.76. BTTS splits the room at 49.7 percent, so it is not a bet to force. Corners offer a quieter edge: over 9.5 at 54.3 percent on an expected 10.1.

The honest risk is that 57.1 percent is not a price, and with no bookmaker odds attached there is no confirmed value β€” check the market before committing. Leipzig's long injury list and their erratic form mean the home win is the model's lean, not a certainty.

Updated 21 Sep 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOdds
Match Result (1X2) Home 84% 57.1% β€”
Double Chance 1X 75% 77.2% β€”
BTTS Yes 81% 49.7% β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 87% 60.3% β€”
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.7% β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.3% β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.03 – 1.24 Eintracht Frankfurt Β· expected total 3.28

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

FactorEintracht FrankfurtRB Leipzig
Form (last 5)DSC Freiburg (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WFSV Mainz 05 (A) 3–1 Β· 12/09/2026LFC Augsburg (H) 1–4 Β· 06/09/2026DUnion Berlin (A) 3–3 Β· 29/08/2026WSC St. TΓΆnis (A) 11–0 Β· 21/08/2026LBayer Leverkusen (A) 0–2 Β· 20/09/2026WHamburger SV (H) 5–0 Β· 13/09/2026LComo (A) 1–4 Β· 10/09/2026LWerder Bremen (A) 1–3 Β· 05/09/2026WBorussia MΓΆnchengladbach (H) 3–0 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.32.3
Goals conceded (season avg)2.51.3
Win streak (best this season)11
xG for (recent avg)1.891.91
xG against (recent avg)1.450.75
Elo strength rating1528.71622.2
Players out78

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish β€” into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Eintracht Frankfurt

BTTS 4 of 6 Over 2.5: 6 of 6 Scored in 5 of 6 Clean sheets: 1 of 6

RB Leipzig

BTTS 2 of 6 Over 2.5: 5 of 6 Scored in 5 of 6 Clean sheets: 3 of 6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt

3rd best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

RB Leipzig

2nd best clean sheets (2)

Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

RB Leipzig (at home)Eintracht Frankfurt (away)
Played22
Wins–Draws–Losses2-0-01-1-0
Goals scored (avg)43
Goals conceded (avg)02
Clean sheets20
Failed to score00

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

ScoreProbability
2–17.7%
2–06.2%
1–05.3%
3–15.2%
3–04.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Eintracht Frankfurt 3 wins Β· 1 draw Β· RB Leipzig 6 wins Β· avg 3.6 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Apr 2026 Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 RB Leipzig Bundesliga
06 Dec 2025 RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga
26 Apr 2025 Eintracht Frankfurt 4–0 RB Leipzig Bundesliga
15 Dec 2024 RB Leipzig 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga
04 Dec 2024 RB Leipzig 3–0 Eintracht Frankfurt DFB Pokal
18 May 2024 Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 RB Leipzig Bundesliga
13 Jan 2024 RB Leipzig 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga
03 Jun 2023 RB Leipzig 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt DFB Pokal
25 Feb 2023 RB Leipzig 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga
07 Jan 2023 RB Leipzig 2–4 Eintracht Frankfurt Friendlies Clubs

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Eintracht Frankfurt

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 SC Freiburg Home 2–2 D
12/09 FSV Mainz 05 Away 3–1 W
06/09 FC Augsburg Home 1–4 L
29/08 Union Berlin Away 3–3 D
21/08 SC St. TΓΆnis Away 11–0 W

RB Leipzig

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Bayer Leverkusen Away 0–2 L
13/09 Hamburger SV Home 5–0 W
10/09 Como Away 1–4 L
05/09 Werder Bremen Away 1–3 L
29/08 Borussia MΓΆnchengladbach Home 3–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Bundesliga

Eintracht FrankfurtRB Leipzig
League position109
Points56
Played44
Wins–Draws–Losses1-2-12-0-2
Goals scored (avg)2.32.3
Goals conceded (avg)2.51.3
Clean sheets02
Failed to score01
Penalties (scored/missed)0/00/0
Yellow cards95
Red cards00
xG for (avg)1.891.91
xG against (avg)1.450.75
Corners for (avg)5.98

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Eintracht Frankfurt

1
0-15
5
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded

RB Leipzig

1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • ❌ N. Collins β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ R. Doan β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Knauff β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ H. Larsson β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Ngankam β€” Injury
  • ❌ F. Chaibi β€” Illness
  • ❌ J. Maluze β€” Thigh Injury

RB Leipzig

  • ❌ C. Baumgartner β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ O. Nyland β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ A. Ouedraogo β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ Romulo Cardoso β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ V. Gebel β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ B. Gruda β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ R. Reitz β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Guiu β€” Hamstring Injury

More: Bundesliga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws