Predictions → Germany 2. Bundesliga

Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 11:00 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Olympiastadion

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 83% 55.5% 1.87 1xBet 50.7% +4.8 pp
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.2% 1.25 1xBet 74% +5.2 pp
BTTS Yes 84% 55.7% 1.44 1xBet 64.6% -8.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 85% 57.5% 1.44 1xBet 64.4% -6.9 pp
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.7% 8.50 1xBet 5% +2.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.9% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Hertha BSC 2.28 – 1.17 Arminia Bielefeld · expected total 3.45

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Hertha BSC

Form (last 5)
DHolstein Kiel (A) 0–0 · 16/10/2026WSpVgg Greuther Fürth (H) 2–1 · 11/10/2026DFC Augsburg (A) 2–2 · 02/10/2026WHertha Zehlendorf (A) 3–1 · 29/09/2026WDynamo Dresden (A) 2–1 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)7
xG for (recent avg)1.96
xG against (recent avg)0.81
Elo strength rating1605

Arminia Bielefeld

Form (last 5)
WVfL Osnabrück (H) 2–1 · 18/10/2026WVfL Bochum (A) 1–0 · 11/10/2026DRot-Weiß Essen (H) 2–2 · 03/10/2026D1. FC Heidenheim (H) 2–2 · 20/09/2026LSV Darmstadt 98 (A) 1–2 · 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.10
xG against (recent avg)1.44
Elo strength rating1421
Hertha BSCArminia Bielefeld
Goals scored (season avg)
2.40
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
7
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.96
1.10
xG against (recent avg)
0.81
1.44
Elo strength rating
1605
1421

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Hertha BSC

Unbeaten 10
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Arminia Bielefeld

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — 2. Bundesliga

Hertha BSC

3rd best attack (2.40 goals/game) 2nd best defence (1.00 conceded/game) Best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Arminia Bielefeld

Best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 18 2. Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Hertha BSC at home · Arminia Bielefeld away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Hertha BSC (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–0L
W 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Arminia Bielefeld (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–3L
W 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Hertha BSC (home)Arminia Bielefeld (away)
W 3
W 1
L 3
Played
3
4
Goals scored (avg)
2.70
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.7%
2–0
6.6%
3–1
5.9%
1–0
5.1%
3–0
5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Arminia Bielefeld 2 wins · 3 draws · Hertha BSC 2 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 7

2
3
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
17 May 2026 Arminia Bielefeld 6–1 Hertha BSC 2. Bundesliga
19 Dec 2025 Hertha BSC 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga
30 Apr 2022 Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 Hertha Berlin Bundesliga
11 Dec 2021 Hertha Berlin 2–0 Arminia Bielefeld Bundesliga
09 May 2021 Hertha Berlin 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld Bundesliga
10 Jan 2021 Arminia Bielefeld 1–0 Hertha Berlin Bundesliga
10 Aug 2015 Arminia Bielefeld 0–2 Hertha Berlin DFB Pokal

📈 Recent Form

Hertha BSC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
16/10 Holstein Kiel Away 0–0 D
11/10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth Home 2–1 W
02/10 FC Augsburg Away 2–2 D
29/09 Hertha Zehlendorf Away 3–1 W
19/09 Dynamo Dresden Away 2–1 W

Arminia Bielefeld

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/10 VfL Osnabrück Home 2–1 W
11/10 VfL Bochum Away 1–0 W
03/10 Rot-Weiß Essen Home 2–2 D
20/09 1. FC Heidenheim Home 2–2 D
11/09 SV Darmstadt 98 Away 1–2 L

📊 Season Comparison — 2. Bundesliga

Hertha BSC #1 · 22 pts —  Arminia Bielefeld #8 · 11 pts

Hertha BSC

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–1D–0L
W 7
D 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards21
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.96
xG against (avg)0.81
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Arminia Bielefeld

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–3L
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards16
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.10
xG against (avg)1.44
Corners for (avg)5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Hertha BSCArminia Bielefeld
W 7
D 1
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
2.40
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.60
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
21
16
Red cards
2
0
xG for (avg)
1.96
1.10
xG against (avg)
0.81
1.44
Corners for (avg)
5.40
5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Hertha BSC

2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
5
scored conceded

Arminia Bielefeld

2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
5
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

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