Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 15:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Holstein-Stadion • ☁️ 6.5°C, 6 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 1.55 (70.2%, Model EV +8.8%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw 3.65 → 3.55 ▼3% | Betano3.55 | 25.6% | -9.1% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.47 | 65.1% | -4.3% |
| BTTS | Yes | 1xBet1.55 | 69.8% · No 30.2% | +8.2% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Betano2.30 | 38.6% · Over 61.4% | -11.2% |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Betfair6.50 | 10% | -35% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.3 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 51.9% · Over 48.1% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Holstein Kiel · Home
Holstein Kiel's recent record of 4 goals for and 3 against across 5 matches includes three matches in which they failed to score, yet they also produced a 3-0 win over Dynamo Dresden. Their recent xG for of 1.12 sits well below the model expected goals of 1.83 for this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld · Away
Arminia Bielefeld won 3 of their last 5, scoring 8 goals, with the 2-2 draw at home to Holstein Kiel on 23 Jan 2026 the latest head-to-head. They also won 0-2 at Holstein Kiel on 10 Aug 2025, showing they can take points at this venue.
Head-to-head draws and Bielefeld edge
The latest head-to-head finished 2-2 on 23 Jan 2026, and the two meetings before that were also decided by a single goal or drawn. Holstein Kiel have drawn 2 of their last 5, including 1-1 with 1899 Hoffenheim and 0-0 with Hertha BSC, while Arminia Bielefeld have drawn 1 of their last 5. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Holstein Kiel 1.83 – 1.72 Arminia Bielefeld · expected total 3.55
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Holstein Kiel
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Arminia Bielefeld
Rank among 18 2. Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Holstein Kiel at home · Arminia Bielefeld away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Holstein Kiel (home)
Arminia Bielefeld (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Arminia Bielefeld 8 wins · 1 draw · Holstein Kiel 0 wins · avg 3.3 goals · BTTS in 7 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2–2 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Holstein Kiel | 0–2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| 02 Apr 2023 | Holstein Kiel | 2–3 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2–1 | Holstein Kiel | Friendlies Clubs |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Arminia Bielefeld | 4–2 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 30 May 2020 | Holstein Kiel | 1–2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| 03 Nov 2019 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2–1 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 19 May 2019 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1–0 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 14 Dec 2018 | Holstein Kiel | 1–2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
Holstein Kiel
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 28/10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 25/10 | Dynamo Dresden | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 16/10 | Hertha BSC | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 09/10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 03/10 | Viborg | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 19/09 | VfL Osnabrück | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | 1. FC Heidenheim | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 30/08 | 1. FC Magdeburg | Away | 0–2 | L |
Arminia Bielefeld
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Hertha BSC | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 18/10 | VfL Osnabrück | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 11/10 | VfL Bochum | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Rot-Weiß Essen | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 20/09 | 1. FC Heidenheim | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 11/09 | SV Darmstadt 98 | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 04/09 | FC St. Pauli | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 29/08 | 1. FC Nürnberg | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 16/08 | Energie Cottbus | Home | 3–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel #17 · 8 pts · Arminia Bielefeld #7 · 14 pts
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: 2. Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws