FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 13:30 UTC+3 • Round 7 • Mewa Arena • ☁️ 12.2°C, 13 km/h overcast
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 79% | 43.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 71% | 72.1% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 49.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 48.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 66% | 9.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.6% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.41 – 0.98 Werder Bremen · expected total 2.39
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans home. Mainz's recent attacking output is the driver: their expected goals across recent matches sit at 2.23, while Werder's recent figure is just 0.91. For this fixture the model projects 1.408 goals for Mainz against 0.981 for Werder. Form reads LWWLW for the hosts against DLWDW for the visitors, and the head-to-head is genuinely mixed, with Mainz winning 0-2 in Bremen last March but losing three of the previous four meetings. Both squads are heavily depleted, with eight listed absences for Mainz and ten for Werder, which adds real noise to any read on rhythm and rotation.
The headline tip is a Mainz win at 43.6 percent with confidence of 79, and the safer route is the 1X double chance at 72.1 percent. Both teams to score lands at 49.8 percent, over 2.5 goals at 48.9 percent, and corners over 9.5 at 52.6 percent with an expected 9.8. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 9.4 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. With no bookmaker prices quoted in this snapshot, value can only be judged once you compare these percentages against the market — the 1X looks the most robust anchor, while the outright home win is where the edge would show if odds drift above the implied 43.6 percent. The caveat: those injury lists are long enough to make the projected goal split fragile, and Werder's away record keeps this tighter than the numbers suggest.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Rank among 18 Bundesliga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
FSV Mainz 05 at home · Werder Bremen away — the split that matters for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 (home)
Werder Bremen (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
FSV Mainz 05 3 wins · 2 draws · Werder Bremen 5 wins · avg 2.1 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Werder Bremen | 0–2 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 01 Nov 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1–1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Werder Bremen | 1–0 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 15 Sep 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1–2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 03 Feb 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0–1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Werder Bremen | 4–0 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 08 Apr 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2–2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 15 Oct 2022 | Werder Bremen | 0–2 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 21 Apr 2021 | Werder Bremen | 0–1 | FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Dec 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0–1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
📈 Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 03/10 | Waldhof Mannheim | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Away | 4–3 | W |
| 12/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 06/09 | Hamburger SV | Away | 5–0 | W |
Werder Bremen
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Borussia Dortmund | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 02/10 | Twente | Away | 0–7 | L |
| 19/09 | FC Augsburg | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 12/09 | 1. FC Köln | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 05/09 | RB Leipzig | Home | 3–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 #8 · 7 pts — Werder Bremen #7 · 8 pts
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
FSV Mainz 05
- ❌ B. Hollerbach — Lacking Match Fitness
- ❌ E. Martel — Knee Injury
- ❌ P. Nebel — Muscle Injury
- ❌ Silas — Broken shinbone
- ❌ D. Kohr — Foot Injury
- ❌ S. Widmer — Knee Injury
- ❌ O. Ruoppi — Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Zentner — Hand Injury
Werder Bremen
- ❌ F. Agu — Calf Injury
- ❌ K. Topp — Knee Injury
- ❌ M. Weiser — Knee Injury
- ❌ O. Wojcik — Muscle Injury
- ❌ J. Njinmah — Thigh Injury
- ❌ J. Stage — Muscle Injury
- ❌ S. Lynen — Hip Injury
- ❌ S. Alvero — Calf Injury
- ❌ S. Musah — Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. N'Diaye — Groin Injury
More: Bundesliga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws