Atalanta vs Frosinone

Atalanta host Frosinone at the New Balance Arena on Sunday, with both sides level on points in the early Serie A table and a win potentially lifting either into the top half. The home side sit 10th on 9 points from 6 games, while Frosinone are 9th on 10 points from 6, so the stakes are straightforward: three points and bragging rights in a congested mid-table.

The model leans toward Atalanta, giving the home win a 44.8% probability at 80 confidence, though the recent form reads WLLLW for the hosts against LWWDW for the visitors. Expected goals tell a more cautious story: Atalanta's recent xG sits at just 0.85, while Frosinone have been creating at 1.69. The season-long goal expectations are 1.7414 for the home side and 1.3126 for the away side. Atalanta's injury list is long, including H. Ahanor, T. Kristensen, K. Sulemana, I. Hien, G. Gaetano, O. Kossounou, R. Bellanova, E. Elmas, F. Kessie, G. Scalvini and a doubtful G. Raspadori, while Frosinone miss F. Ghedjemis, D. Birligea and F. Grillitsch.

The headline tips are a home win at 44.8%, double chance 12 at 71.4%, both teams to score Yes at 52%, over 2.5 goals at 52.4%, and over 9.5 corners at 54.6% with an expected 10.7. The correct-score model favours 2-1 at 7.4%, with 2-1 (9.41), 2-0 (7.17), 1-0 (7.15), 3-1 (5.46) and 3-0 (4.16) the leading scorelines. Value may hide in the double chance and corners markets, where probabilities are strongest. The honest caveat: Atalanta's poor recent xG and lengthy injury list mean the home win is far from secure, and Frosinone's away form makes an upset plausible.