Genoa vs Venezia

Genoa host Venezia at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Sunday with both clubs desperate for points near the foot of Serie A. The hosts sit 17th on 4 points from 6 games, while Venezia are bottom on 0 points from 6 — a relegation six-pointer even at this early stage.

The model leans clearly toward Genoa, giving the home side a 54.2 percent win probability with 83 confidence, and double chance 1X at 81.3 percent. Form backs that up: Genoa arrive with WLLWD, Venezia with five straight defeats (LLLLL). The expected goals split is telling — Genoa at 1.3071 against Venezia's 0.5935 — though recent xG offers a note of caution, with the hosts at 1.01 and the visitors at 1.4. Both squads are heavily depleted: Genoa list ten absentees including S. Otoa as doubtful, Venezia twelve with T. Correia doubtful.

For bettors, the headline tips are Home, 1X, BTTS No at 50.1 percent, Under 2.5 at 52.3 percent, and Under 9.5 corners at 52.4 percent with 9.3 expected. The correct score model favours 1-0 at 15.6 percent, with 1-0 (18.39), 2-0 (12.77) and 2-1 (7.58) leading the top scores. Value may hide in the low-scoring angles, since the model's goal expectation is modest and Venezia's attack has been blunt. The honest caveat: no bookmaker odds were provided, so we cannot confirm where the market disagrees with these probabilities — and with 22 combined injury concerns, lineups could shift the picture before kickoff.