Predictions β†’ Italy Serie A

Juventus vs Lazio

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Allianz Stadium β€’ 🌧 15.1Β°C, 5 km/h, 0.3mm rain

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 84% 56.8% 1.69 1xBet 60.8% -4 pp
Double Chance 1X 68% 67.6% 1.18 1xBet 84.1% -16.5 pp
BTTS No 82% 50.2% 1.91 William Hill 50.1% +0.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.7% 1.93 Betano 51.3% +0.4 pp
Correct Score 1-0 64% 8.2% 7.00 Bet365 7.1% +1.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 53.8% 1.78 1xBet 54.1% -0.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Juventus 1.33 – 1.11 Lazio Β· expected total 2.44

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Juventus host Lazio at the Allianz Stadium on Sunday night with the visitors sitting second on 16 points from six games, while the Bianconeri are sixth on 11. The stakes are clear: Lazio can keep pace at the top, Juventus need a statement win to close the gap.

The model leans home. Juventus are tipped to win at 56.8% with confidence 84, priced at 1.69, and the double chance 1X lands at 67.6%. Form is mixed β€” Juventus have gone DLWWL across their last five, Lazio WDWWD β€” but the underlying numbers favour the hosts: expected goals read 1.3324 for Juventus against 1.1062 for Lazio, even though recent xG actually favours the visitors (1.36 home, 1.63 away). Both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on each side, which adds noise to any read on rhythm and rotation.

Where might value hide? Both teams to score is tipped No at 50.2%, odds 1.91, and Under 2.5 goals comes in at 51.7%, odds 1.93 β€” the model sees a tight, low-scoring night. Corners point Under 9.5 at 53.8% with an expected 8.7. The correct score favourite is 1-0 at 8.2%, and the top scores list 1-0 at 10.35, 2-1 at 8.58 and 2-0 at 7.75. The honest caveat: with so many absences and a recent head-to-head record full of draws and one-goal margins, the 1.69 home price offers little margin for error.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Juventus

Form (last 5)
DCagliari (A) 1–1 Β· 11/10/2026LCremonese (H) 0–1 Β· 02/10/2026WAtalanta (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026WNEC Nijmegen (H) 5–0 Β· 17/09/2026LSassuolo (A) 2–3 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.03
xG against (recent avg)0.42
Elo strength rating1613
Players out14

Lazio

Form (last 5)
WMonza (H) 3–1 Β· 11/10/2026DJuve Stabia (H) 3–3 Β· 03/10/2026WArezzo (H) 2–0 Β· 27/09/2026WVenezia (A) 2–0 Β· 19/09/2026DAC Milan (H) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.63
xG against (recent avg)1.30
Elo strength rating1580
Players out11
JuventusLazio
WMonza (H) 3–1 Β· 11/10/2026DJuve Stabia (H) 3–3 Β· 03/10/2026WArezzo (H) 2–0 Β· 27/09/2026WVenezia (A) 2–0 Β· 19/09/2026DAC Milan (H) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.80
0.70
Win streak (best this season)
2
3
xG for (recent avg)
1.03
1.63
xG against (recent avg)
0.42
1.30
Elo strength rating
1613
1580
Players out
14
11

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Juventus

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Lazio

Unbeaten 8
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Juventus

2nd best clean sheets (3)

Lazio

3rd best attack (1.80 goals/game) 3rd best defence (0.70 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (3)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Juventus at home Β· Lazio away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Juventus (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Lazio (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–0L
W 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Juventus (home)Lazio (away)
W 2
D 1
W 3
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
0.30
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.2%
2–1
6.8%
2–0
6.1%
3–1
3%
3–0
2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Juventus 4 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Lazio 4 wins Β· avg 2.2 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

4
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Feb 2026 Juventus 2–2 Lazio Serie A
26 Oct 2025 Lazio 1–0 Juventus Serie A
10 May 2025 Lazio 1–1 Juventus Serie A
19 Oct 2024 Juventus 1–0 Lazio Serie A
23 Apr 2024 Lazio 2–1 Juventus Coppa Italia
02 Apr 2024 Juventus 2–0 Lazio Coppa Italia
30 Mar 2024 Lazio 1–0 Juventus Serie A
16 Sep 2023 Juventus 3–1 Lazio Serie A
08 Apr 2023 Lazio 2–1 Juventus Serie A
02 Feb 2023 Juventus 1–0 Lazio Coppa Italia

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Juventus

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Cagliari Away 1–1 D
02/10 Cremonese Home 0–1 L
20/09 Atalanta Home 2–0 W
17/09 NEC Nijmegen Home 5–0 W
13/09 Sassuolo Away 2–3 L

Lazio

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Monza Home 3–1 W
03/10 Juve Stabia Home 3–3 D
27/09 Arezzo Home 2–0 W
19/09 Venezia Away 2–0 W
12/09 AC Milan Home 2–2 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Juventus #6 Β· 11 pts β€”  Lazio #2 Β· 16 pts

Juventus

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–1L
W 3
D 2
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards9
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.03
xG against (avg)0.42
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Lazio

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–1D–0L
W 5
D 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards11
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.63
xG against (avg)1.30
Corners for (avg)3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
JuventusLazio
W 3
D 2
L 1
W 5
D 1
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
0.70
Clean sheets
3
3
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
9
11
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
1.03
1.63
xG against (avg)
0.42
1.30
Corners for (avg)
5.40
3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Juventus

0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
6
scored conceded

Lazio

0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Juventus

  • ❌ M. Di Gregorio β€” Transfer negotiations
  • ❌ J. Ekhator β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Gatti β€” Injury
  • ❌ W. McKennie β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ E. Zhegrova β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Cambiaso β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ P. M. Sarr β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Milik β€” Inactive
  • ❌ K. YΔ±ldΔ±z β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ J. Cabal β€” Thigh Problems
  • ❌ K. Thuram β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ M. Locatelli β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ J. Boga β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ K. Grabara β€” Knee Injury

Lazio

  • ❌ D. Cataldi β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ S. Gigot β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Rovella β€” Wound
  • ❌ L. Pellegrini β€” Wound
  • ❌ A. MaruΕ‘iΔ‡ β€” Muscle Bruise
  • ❌ Patric β€” Sprained Ankle
  • ❌ A. Furlanetto β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ F. Dele-Bashiru β€” Muscle Bruise
  • ❌ D. Doekhi β€” Hand Injury
  • ❌ M. Cancellieri β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ A. Gudmundsson β€” Shoulder Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws