Predictions → Italy Serie A

Napoli vs Lazio

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 14:30 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • ☀️ 33.2°C, 6 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS: Yes
Model probability 63.9% · Market implied at best price ≈ 58.8% · EV at shown price +8.6%
Best odds 1.70 · William Hill Bet365 1.70Marathonbet 1.67

Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 1.70 (64.4%, Model EV +9.5%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.

Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home 2 → 2.1 ▲5% Betano2.1044.7% -6.1%
Double Chance 12 1xBet1.3075% -2.5%
BTTS Yes William Hill1.7063.9% · No 36.1% +8.6%
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 1xBet1.8854.9% · Under 45.1% +3.2%
Correct Score 2-1 Bet3659.008.2% -26.2%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.) Over 9.5 Current price not available50.4% · Under 49.6% —

🧠 Match Preview

Napoli · Home

Napoli have scored 11 goals across their last five matches but failed to score in two of them, including the 0-2 loss to Juventus. Their recent xG for is 1.82, while the model expected goals for this fixture is 1.54.

Lazio · Away

Lazio arrive with five wins from five, scoring 16 and conceding 5, and they failed to score in none of those matches. Their recent xG for is 1.81, slightly below Napoli's figure.

Lazio streak meets H2H pattern

The latest head-to-head, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0-2 to Lazio at Napoli, and the previous meeting also finished 0-2. Yet the model still favours the home side at 45.5%, with the double chance at 75.1% and a 2-1 correct score at 8.2%. Napoli's 11 goals in five matches, despite two scoreless outings, support a realistic home response rather than a repeat of those away wins. The evidence supports Napoli win.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Napoli 1.54 – 1.60 Lazio · expected total 3.15

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Napoli

Form (last 5)
LWDWL
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Best league winning streak this season5
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.82
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.71
Elo strength rating1644
Players out15

Lazio

Form (last 5)
WWWWW
Goals scored (season avg)2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Best league winning streak this season6
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.81
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.70
Elo strength rating1650
Players out10
NapoliLazio
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
0.80
Best league winning streak this season
5
6
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.82
1.81
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.71
1.70
Elo strength rating
1644
1650
Players out
15
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Napoli

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
0/6

Lazio

Won 5 in a row Unbeaten 10
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored a goal
6/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Napoli

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Lazio

3rd best attack (2.40 goals/game, season) Best defence (0.80 conceded/game, season) Best BTTS rate (83%, last 6) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%, last 6) 2nd best clean sheets (4, season)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Napoli at home · Lazio away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Napoli (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Lazio (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–0D–0L
W 5
Played5
Goals scored (avg)2.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Napoli (home)Lazio (away)
W 2
D 1
L 1
W 5
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
2.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
0.60
Clean sheets
2
3
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

2–1
8.23%
1–0
5.58%
2–0
5.13%
3–1
4.23%
3–2
3.4%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Lazio 5 wins · 2 draws · Napoli 3 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

5
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Apr 2026 Napoli 0–2 Lazio Serie A
04 Jan 2026 Lazio 0–2 Napoli Serie A
15 Feb 2025 Lazio 2–2 Napoli Serie A
08 Dec 2024 Napoli 0–1 Lazio Serie A
05 Dec 2024 Lazio 3–1 Napoli Coppa Italia
28 Jan 2024 Lazio 0–0 Napoli Serie A
02 Sep 2023 Napoli 1–2 Lazio Serie A
03 Mar 2023 Napoli 0–1 Lazio Serie A
03 Sep 2022 Lazio 1–2 Napoli Serie A
27 Feb 2022 Lazio 1–2 Napoli Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Napoli

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Juventus Away 0–2 L
28/10 Monza Away 4–1 W
24/10 AS Roma Home 3–3 D
20/10 Bodo/Glimt Home 4–3 W
17/10 Venezia Away 0–1 L
13/10 Villarreal Away 1–3 L
10/10 Frosinone Home 3–0 W
20/09 Fiorentina Away 1–1 D
13/09 Bologna Home 1–0 W
09/09 Arsenal Home 0–1 L

Lazio

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Cagliari Home 2–1 W
27/10 Sassuolo Away 6–2 W
24/10 Parma Home 2–1 W
18/10 Juventus Away 3–0 W
11/10 Monza Home 3–1 W
03/10 Juve Stabia Home 3–3 D
27/09 Arezzo Home 2–0 W
19/09 Venezia Away 2–0 W
12/09 AC Milan Home 2–2 D
07/09 Udinese Away 2–1 W

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Napoli #8 · 14 pts ·  Lazio #1 · 28 pts

Napoli

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–4L
W 4
D 2
L 4
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards7
Red cards1
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.82
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.71
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Lazio

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–1D–0L
W 9
D 1
Played10
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets4
Failed to score0
Yellow cards15
Red cards0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.81
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.70
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/2
NapoliLazio
W 4
D 2
L 4
W 9
D 1
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
2.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
0.80
Clean sheets
3
4
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
7
15
Red cards
1
0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.82
1.81
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.71
1.70
Corners for (avg)
5.50
4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
1/2

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Napoli

0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
4
scored conceded

Lazio

0-15
5
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
6
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Napoli

  • ❌ P. Mazzocchi: Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. McTominay: Heart Problems
  • ❌ Giovane: Groin Injury
  • ❌ Luca Marianucci: Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ A. Buongiorno: Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ Alisson Santos: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Anguissa: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Meret: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Spinazzola: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Favasuli: Thigh Injury
  • ❌ M. Olivera: Groin Injury
  • ❌ A. Vergara: Calf Injury
  • ❌ David Neres: Thigh Injury
  • ❌ B. Badiashile: Injury
  • ❌ S. Lobotka: Ankle Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): M. Folorunsho; not counted as confirmed absences.

Lazio

  • ❌ D. Cataldi: Groin Injury
  • ❌ N. Rovella: Wound
  • ❌ L. Pellegrini: Wound
  • ❌ A. Marušić: Muscle Bruise
  • ❌ Patric: Sprained Ankle
  • ❌ A. Furlanetto: Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ F. Dele-Bashiru: Muscle Bruise
  • ❌ D. Doekhi: Hand Injury
  • ❌ M. Cancellieri: Leg Injury
  • ❌ A. Gudmundsson: Shoulder Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): S. Gigot; not counted as confirmed absences.

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws