Predictions β†’ Italy Serie A

Udinese vs Lecce

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 10:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli β€’ ☁️ 20.6Β°C, 4 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 54.7% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 49.5% Β· Edge +7.9 pp
Best odds 2.02 Betano 2.02William Hill 2.00Bet365 1.95
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 2.6% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.94 β†’ 1.95 β–²1% 81% 50.1% 1.95 1xBet 52.3% -2.2 pp
Double Chance 1X 74% 75.6% 1.25 1xBet 78.5% -2.9 pp
BTTS No 84% 55.4% 2.02 Betano 47.5% +7.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 85% 57.3% 1.91 Betano 52.1% +5.2 pp
Correct Score 1-0 75% 14% 7.00 William Hill 7.3% +6.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 52.9% 1.93 1xBet 48.7% +4.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Udinese 1.14 – 0.71 Lecce Β· expected total 1.85

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Udinese host Lecce at the Bluenergy Stadium on Sunday with both sides stuck in the wrong half of Serie A after six rounds. The hosts sit 15th on 4 points, while Lecce are 13th on 6, so this is a scrappy early-season six-pointer where the table matters less than who can stop the rot.

The model sees two struggling teams. Udinese's recent form reads LDLLL, Lecce's LLWLL, and neither attack is firing: the expected goals figures point to roughly 1.14 for Udinese and 0.71 for Lecce, with recent shot quality even lower for the visitors at 0.86. Both squads are also badly depleted, with ten listed absences for Udinese and six for Lecce, which helps explain the blunt numbers.

The headline call is a home win at 50.1 percent, priced at 1.95, with confidence at 81. If you want a cushion, the double chance 1X lands at 75.6 percent. The goals markets lean low: Under 2.5 comes in at 57.3 percent and is available at 1.91, while both teams to score is a No at 55.4 percent, priced at 2.02. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 16.73, part of a 14 percent correct-score cluster. Corners are expected to reach 9.9, with Over 9.5 at 52.9 percent.

The honest risk here is that 50.1 percent is barely a coin flip, and Udinese's own form is dreadful, so the 1.95 on a home win offers little margin for error.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Udinese

Form (last 5)
LTorino (A) 1–2 Β· 12/10/2026DPogon Szczecin (A) 1–1 Β· 26/09/2026LCagliari (H) 0–1 Β· 19/09/2026LInter (A) 3–5 Β· 14/09/2026LLazio (H) 1–2 Β· 07/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)2.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.13
xG against (recent avg)1.61
Elo strength rating1465
Players out10

Lecce

Form (last 5)
LBologna (H) 1–2 Β· 11/10/2026LAC Milan (A) 0–3 Β· 20/09/2026WMonza (H) 3–2 Β· 13/09/2026LCagliari (A) 0–1 Β· 07/09/2026LAS Roma (H) 0–4 Β· 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.86
xG against (recent avg)2.38
Elo strength rating1316
Players out6
UdineseLecce
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.20
2.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.13
0.86
xG against (recent avg)
1.61
2.38
Elo strength rating
1465
1316
Players out
10
6

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Udinese

Winless 5
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Lecce

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Udinese

3rd best BTTS rate (83%)

Lecce

Worst BTTS rate (33%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Udinese at home Β· Lecce away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Udinese (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Lecce (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–2L
W 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Udinese (home)Lecce (away)
D 1
L 2
W 1
L 2
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.30
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
14%
2–0
8.6%
2–1
6.1%
3–0
3.3%
3–1
2.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Lecce 3 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Udinese 5 wins Β· avg 2.2 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

3
2
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Feb 2026 Lecce 2–1 Udinese Serie A
25 Oct 2025 Udinese 3–2 Lecce Serie A
21 Feb 2025 Lecce 0–1 Udinese Serie A
05 Oct 2024 Udinese 1–0 Lecce Serie A
13 May 2024 Lecce 0–2 Udinese Serie A
23 Oct 2023 Udinese 1–1 Lecce Serie A
28 Apr 2023 Lecce 1–0 Udinese Serie A
23 Dec 2022 Udinese 2–0 Lecce Friendlies Clubs
04 Nov 2022 Udinese 1–1 Lecce Serie A
29 Jul 2020 Udinese 1–2 Lecce Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Udinese

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12/10 Torino Away 1–2 L
26/09 Pogon Szczecin Away 1–1 D
19/09 Cagliari Home 0–1 L
14/09 Inter Away 3–5 L
07/09 Lazio Home 1–2 L

Lecce

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Bologna Home 1–2 L
20/09 AC Milan Away 0–3 L
13/09 Monza Home 3–2 W
07/09 Cagliari Away 0–1 L
31/08 AS Roma Home 0–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Udinese #15 Β· 4 pts β€”  Lecce #13 Β· 6 pts

Udinese

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–4L
W 1
D 1
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.20
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards12
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.13
xG against (avg)1.61
Corners for (avg)7.00
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Lecce

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–4L
W 2
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards13
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.86
xG against (avg)2.38
Corners for (avg)3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
UdineseLecce
W 1
D 1
L 4
W 2
L 4
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.20
2.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
12
13
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.13
0.86
xG against (avg)
1.61
2.38
Corners for (avg)
7.00
3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Udinese

0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Lecce

2
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Udinese

  • ❌ A. Buksa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ G. Chakvetadze β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ C. Kabasele β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Zanoli β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Zaniolo β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ J. Piotrowski β€” Heart Problems
  • ❌ J. Arizala β€” Thigh Problems
  • ❌ M. Palma β€” Muscle Bruise
  • ❌ O. Solet β€” Injury
  • ❌ I. Gueye β€” Ankle Injury

Lecce

  • ❌ L. Banda β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Berisha β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ W. Geubbels β€” Sprained Ankle
  • ❌ O. Gandelman β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Stulic β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Tiago Gabriel β€” Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws