Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ WerkTalent Stadion β€’ ☁️ 7.3Β°C, 7 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 76% 34.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance X2 68% 68% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 48.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 50.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-1 67% 9.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 71% 28.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: ADO Den Haag 0.99 – 1.18 Heerenveen Β· expected total 2.16

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

ADO Den Haag host Heerenveen at the WerkTalent Stadion on Saturday, and the table already tells a story of two clubs heading in opposite directions. The hosts sit 17th with just 3 points from 8 games, while the visitors are 10th on 9 points from the same number of matches. For ADO, this is early-season damage limitation; for Heerenveen, it is a chance to pull clear of the bottom pack.

The model leans away. Heerenveen carry a 34.2 percent win probability, and the double chance X2 lands at 68 percent, which is where the safer money sits. Recent form backs that up: ADO have gone DDLLD, Heerenveen LWDLD. The expected goals split is 0.9869 for the hosts against 1.1763 for the visitors, with recent xG of 0.98 and 1.49 respectively, so the away side is creating more. Both squads are stretched, with six ADO names out and five for Heerenveen, which adds noise to any read.

The headline tips are Under 2.5 at 50.9 percent and BTTS No at 48.6 percent, both pointing to a tight, low-scoring night. The correct score model favours 0-1 at 9.9 percent, with 0-2 and 1-2 close behind. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 at 53 percent against an expected 10. The draw is priced at 28.4 percent with 71 confidence, so if you want cover, X2 is the cleaner route than a straight away win. The honest caveat is that 34.2 percent is not a dominant edge, and with both teams missing bodies, a scrappy draw is a live risk.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

ADO Den Haag

Form (last 5)
DTelstar (A) 2–2 Β· 11/10/2026DCambuur (H) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LTwente (A) 0–2 Β· 12/09/2026LFortuna Sittard (H) 2–3 Β· 06/09/2026DFeyenoord (A) 2–2 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.98
xG against (recent avg)1.43
Elo strength rating1347
Players out6

Heerenveen

Form (last 5)
LPSV Eindhoven (A) 0–2 Β· 09/10/2026WSparta Rotterdam (A) 4–0 Β· 19/09/2026DTelstar (H) 0–0 Β· 13/09/2026LAZ Alkmaar (H) 2–3 Β· 06/09/2026DWillem II (A) 2–2 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.49
xG against (recent avg)1.01
Elo strength rating1531
Players out5
ADO Den HaagHeerenveen
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.40
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.98
1.49
xG against (recent avg)
1.43
1.01
Elo strength rating
1347
1531
Players out
6
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

ADO Den Haag

Winless 9
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Heerenveen

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Heerenveen

2nd best clean sheets (3)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

ADO Den Haag at home Β· Heerenveen away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

ADO Den Haag (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.70
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Heerenveen (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
ADO Den Haag (home)Heerenveen (away)
D 1
L 2
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played
3
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.70
1.50
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
9.9%
0–2
6.5%
1–2
6.4%
0–3
2.5%
1–3
2.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

ADO Den Haag 0 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Heerenveen 6 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

4
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
06 Mar 2021 Heerenveen 3–0 ADO Den Haag Eredivisie
28 Nov 2020 ADO Den Haag 1–1 Heerenveen Eredivisie
22 Feb 2020 Heerenveen 2–2 ADO Den Haag Eredivisie
03 Nov 2019 ADO Den Haag 1–1 Heerenveen Eredivisie
09 Mar 2019 ADO Den Haag 2–3 Heerenveen Eredivisie
29 Sep 2018 Heerenveen 1–1 ADO Den Haag Eredivisie
17 Apr 2018 Heerenveen 2–0 ADO Den Haag Eredivisie
26 Aug 2017 ADO Den Haag 1–2 Heerenveen Eredivisie
14 Jan 2017 Heerenveen 2–0 ADO Den Haag Eredivisie
24 Sep 2016 ADO Den Haag 0–3 Heerenveen Eredivisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

ADO Den Haag

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Telstar Away 2–2 D
19/09 Cambuur Home 1–1 D
12/09 Twente Away 0–2 L
06/09 Fortuna Sittard Home 2–3 L
30/08 Feyenoord Away 2–2 D

Heerenveen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 PSV Eindhoven Away 0–2 L
19/09 Sparta Rotterdam Away 4–0 W
13/09 Telstar Home 0–0 D
06/09 AZ Alkmaar Home 2–3 L
30/08 Willem II Away 2–2 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag #17 Β· 3 pts β€”  Heerenveen #10 Β· 9 pts

ADO Den Haag

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–5L
D 3
L 5
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards13
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.98
xG against (avg)1.43
Corners for (avg)3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Heerenveen

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–3L
W 2
D 3
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.49
xG against (avg)1.01
Corners for (avg)6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
ADO Den HaagHeerenveen
D 3
L 5
W 2
D 3
L 3
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
1.40
Clean sheets
0
3
Failed to score
2
3
Yellow cards
13
9
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
0.98
1.49
xG against (avg)
1.43
1.01
Corners for (avg)
3.50
6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

ADO Den Haag

2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
46-60
3
8
61-75
1
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Heerenveen

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

ADO Den Haag

  • ❌ D. Barany β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ C. Peupion β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Hawkins β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ M. Jimenez β€” Injury
  • ❌ L. Reischl β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ A. Pozo β€” Lacking Match Fitness

Heerenveen

  • ❌ O. Braude β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Egbring β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Linday β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Hilgers β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Proper β€” Hamstring Injury

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws