ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:30 UTC+3 • Round 9 • WerkTalent Stadion • 🌤 12.7°C, 19 km/h, 0.1mm mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away	92%	79.6%	1.27	Betano	80.6%	-1 pp
Double Chance	X2	72%	73.2%	1.08	Betano	92.4%	-19.2 pp
BTTS	Yes	85%	57.1%	1.50	William Hill	63.2%	-6.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	84%	55%	1.22	Bet365	78.4%	-23.4 pp
Correct Score	1-2	63%	7.6%	11.00	Betano	4.9%	+2.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.)	Over 9.5	60%	52%	1.53	Betano	61.1%	-9.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.27 – 1.95 PSV Eindhoven · expected total 3.22

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

ADO Den Haag sit seventeenth in the Eredivisie with just 3 points from 8 matches, while PSV arrive second on 19 points from the same number of games. The gap is stark, and the model reflects it: an away win is priced at 79.6% with confidence of 92, and the bookmakers agree, offering 1.27. The double chance X2 lands at 73.2%, which tells you the market sees little room for a shock at the WerkTalent Stadion.

Form backs that up. ADO have stumbled through their last five with a DLLDL record, and their recent expected goals sit at just 0.98. PSV, by contrast, have won three of five in a WLWDW run, generating 2.41 expected goals recently, with an away scoring rate of 1.9523 against ADO's 1.2695. The head-to-head is one-sided too: PSV have won four of the last five meetings, including a 4-0 and a 3-1.

The tips point to goals. Over 2.5 is favoured at 55% with odds of 1.22, while both teams to score sits at 57.1% and 1.5. The correct-score model likes 1-2 at 9.69, followed by 0-2 at 7.63 and 0-1 at 6.83. Corners over 9.5 is a near coin-flip at 52% with an expected 9.5.

Value may hide in the BTTS Yes price of 1.5, given ADO's defensive issues and PSV's scoring rate. The honest caveat: PSV's injury list is enormous, with thirteen names including Schouten, Veerman and Pepi, so rotation and fatigue could blunt the edge the numbers suggest.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

ADO Den Haag

Form (last 5)

DCambuur (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026 LTwente (A) 0–2 · 12/09/2026 LFortuna Sittard (H) 2–3 · 06/09/2026DFeyenoord (A) 2–2 · 30/08/2026LGO Ahead Eagles (A) 1–3 · 23/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)2.40

Win streak (best this season)0

xG for (recent avg)0.98

xG against (recent avg)1.43

Elo strength rating1347

Players out6

PSV Eindhoven

Form (last 5)

WHeerenveen (H) 2–0 · 09/10/2026 LTwente (A) 2–3 · 20/09/2026 WSparta Rotterdam (H) 4–1 · 13/09/2026DShakhtar Donetsk (H) 1–1 · 10/09/2026WAjax (A) 3–1 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)3.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.30

Win streak (best this season)5

xG for (recent avg)1.95

xG against (recent avg)1.60

Elo strength rating1755

Players out13

ADO Den HaagPSV Eindhoven

DCambuur (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026 LTwente (A) 0–2 · 12/09/2026 LFortuna Sittard (H) 2–3 · 06/09/2026DFeyenoord (A) 2–2 · 30/08/2026LGO Ahead Eagles (A) 1–3 · 23/08/2026

WHeerenveen (H) 2–0 · 09/10/2026 LTwente (A) 2–3 · 20/09/2026 WSparta Rotterdam (H) 4–1 · 13/09/2026DShakhtar Donetsk (H) 1–1 · 10/09/2026WAjax (A) 3–1 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.00

3.30

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.40

1.30

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.98

1.95

xG against (recent avg)

1.43

1.60

Elo strength rating

1347

1755

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

ADO Den Haag

Winless 8

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

PSV Eindhoven

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

PSV Eindhoven

2nd best attack (3.30 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

ADO Den Haag at home · PSV Eindhoven away — the split that matters for this fixture.

ADO Den Haag (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L

D 1

L 2

Played3

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)2.70

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

PSV Eindhoven (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–1L

W 3

L 1

Played4

Goals scored (avg)3.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.50

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

ADO Den Haag (home)PSV Eindhoven (away)

D 1

L 2

W 3

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

3.30

Goals conceded (avg)

2.70

1.50

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2

7.6%

0–2

0–1

5.4%

1–3

4.9%

0–3

3.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

ADO Den Haag 0 wins · 3 draws · PSV Eindhoven 7 wins · avg 4.1 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
02 Mar 2023	PSV Eindhoven	3–1	ADO Den Haag	KNVB Beker
13 Feb 2021	ADO Den Haag	2–2	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
01 Nov 2020	PSV Eindhoven	4–0	ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie
15 Feb 2020	ADO Den Haag	0–3	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
11 Aug 2019	PSV Eindhoven	3–1	ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie
21 Apr 2019	PSV Eindhoven	3–1	ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie
15 Sep 2018	ADO Den Haag	0–7	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
29 Apr 2018	ADO Den Haag	3–3	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
16 Dec 2017	PSV Eindhoven	3–0	ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie
15 Apr 2017	ADO Den Haag	1–1	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie

📈 Recent Form

ADO Den Haag

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
19/09	Cambuur	Home	1–1	D
12/09	Twente	Away	0–2	L
06/09	Fortuna Sittard	Home	2–3	L
30/08	Feyenoord	Away	2–2	D
23/08	GO Ahead Eagles	Away	1–3	L

PSV Eindhoven

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
09/10	Heerenveen	Home	2–0	W
20/09	Twente	Away	2–3	L
13/09	Sparta Rotterdam	Home	4–1	W
10/09	Shakhtar Donetsk	Home	1–1	D
05/09	Ajax	Away	3–1	W

📊 Season Comparison — Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag #17 · 3 pts — PSV Eindhoven #2 · 19 pts

ADO Den Haag

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–5L

D 3

L 5

Played8

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)2.40

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Yellow cards12

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.98

xG against (avg)1.43

Corners for (avg)3.50

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

PSV Eindhoven

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–1D–1L

W 6

D 1

L 1

Played8

Goals scored (avg)3.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Yellow cards13

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.95

xG against (avg)1.60

Corners for (avg)5.90

Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

ADO Den HaagPSV Eindhoven

D 3

L 5

W 6

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.00

3.30

Goals conceded (avg)

2.40

1.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.98

1.95

xG against (avg)

1.43

1.60

Corners for (avg)

3.50

5.90

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

ADO Den Haag

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

PSV Eindhoven

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

ADO Den Haag

❌ D. Barany — Knee Injury
❌ C. Peupion — Knee Injury
❌ J. Hawkins — Hamstring Injury
❌ M. Jimenez — Injury
❌ L. Reischl — Groin Injury
❌ A. Pozo — Lacking Match Fitness

PSV Eindhoven

❌ S. Dest — Yellow Cards
❌ C. Driouech — Knock
❌ J. Schouten — Knee Injury
❌ J. Veerman — Red Card
❌ A. Plea — Injury
❌ M. Bro Hansen — Injury
❌ D. Man — Inactive
❌ S. Ouaissa — Muscle Injury
❌ K. Sildillia — Injury
❌ S. Lammers — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ A. Nagalo — Injury
❌ R. Pepi — Injury
❌ P. Wanner — Foot Injury

More: Eredivisie predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws