Twente vs Ajax
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Round 12 • De Grolsch Veste • 🌤 9°C, 5 km/h mostly clear
Snapshotted at publish: Over 9.5 at 1.90 (63.0%, Model EV +19.7%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.6 → 2.45 ▼6% | Betfair2.45 | 41.8% | +2.4% |
| Double Chance | 12 | William Hill1.25 | 76.7% | -4.1% |
| BTTS | Yes | Bet3651.40 | 76.9% · No 23.1% | +7.7% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Pinnacle1.41 | 70.8% · Under 29.2% | -0.2% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | William Hill10.00 | 7.5% | -25% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.4 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Bet3651.90 | 63% · Under 37% | +19.7% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Twente · Home
Twente have scored in every one of their last five matches, including a 9-0 win at Excelsior, and their recent xG for that span is 2.11. Their model expected goals of 2.20 for this fixture is the higher of the two sides.
Ajax · Away
Ajax won four of their last five, with the only defeat a 1-2 loss at HNK Hajduk Split, and their recent xG across that span is 2.32. Their model expected goals for this fixture is 1.96.
Twente's Edge in a Tight H2H
The latest head-to-head is the most telling angle: Ajax hosted Twente on 16 Apr 2026 and lost 0-1, and the meeting before that also went Twente's way at 1-2. Twente have already won away at Ajax twice in this sequence, so a home win is a realistic extension of that pattern rather than a leap. Ajax's away form is strong, but the two most recent H2H results point the same direction, and the model gives Twente a 39.1% win probability. The correct-score pick of 2-1 fits a matchup where both teams have scored freely. The evidence supports Twente win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Twente 2.20 – 1.96 Ajax · expected total 4.16
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Twente
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Twente
Ajax
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Eredivisie
Twente
Ajax
Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Twente at home · Ajax away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Twente (home)
Ajax (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Ajax 4 wins · 2 draws · Twente 4 wins · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr 2026 | Ajax | 0–1 | Twente | Friendlies Clubs |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Ajax | 1–2 | Twente | Eredivisie |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Twente | 2–3 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 18 May 2025 | Ajax | 2–0 | Twente | Eredivisie |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Twente | 2–2 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Ajax | 2–1 | Twente | Eredivisie |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Twente | 3–1 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 28 May 2023 | Twente | 3–1 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 09 Feb 2023 | Twente | 0–1 | Ajax | KNVB Beker |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Ajax | 0–0 | Twente | Eredivisie |
📈 Recent Form
Twente
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Excelsior | Away | 9–0 | W |
| 25/10 | AZ Alkmaar | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 22/10 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 18/10 | Utrecht | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 15/10 | FC Thun | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Fortuna Sittard | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 02/10 | Werder Bremen | Home | 7–0 | W |
| 20/09 | PSV Eindhoven | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 12/09 | ADO Den Haag | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 09/09 | Telstar | Home | 1–0 | W |
Ajax
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | AZ Alkmaar | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 25/10 | Sparta Rotterdam | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 22/10 | Atalanta | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 18/10 | Groningen | Away | 5–2 | W |
| 15/10 | HNK Hajduk Split | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 10/10 | NEC Nijmegen | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 19/09 | Excelsior | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 15/09 | Willem II | Home | 5–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Fortuna Sittard | Away | 5–1 | W |
| 05/09 | PSV Eindhoven | Home | 1–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Eredivisie
Twente #4 · 23 pts · Ajax #2 · 24 pts
Twente
Ajax
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Twente
Ajax
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Twente
- ❌ M. Hilgers: Knee Injury
- ❌ S. Lemkin: Injury
- ❌ D. Weidmann: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❓ B. van Rooij (doubtful): Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): K. Hlynsson, F. Thorvaldsen, L. Unnerstall, M. Bruns; not counted as confirmed absences.
Ajax
- ❌ R. Bounida: Injury
- ❌ J. Faberski: Knee Injury
- ❌ A. Kaplan: Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Sutalo: Injury
- ❌ A. van Axel Dongen: Thigh Injury
- ❌ D. Blind: Injury
- ❌ Y. Regeer: Injury
- ❌ P. Reverson: Injury
- ❌ S. Adingra: Foot Injury
- ❌ A. Bouwman: Knock
- ❌ S. Berghuis: Injury
- ❌ Caio Henrique: Thigh Injury
- ❌ K. Dolberg: Knee Injury
- ❌ A. Gaaei: Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): M. Carrizo, O. Edvardsen; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Eredivisie predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws