Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 10:15 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ 🌀 10.3Β°C, 11 km/h mostly clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 48.4% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 36.1% Β· Edge +16.1 pp
Best odds 2.77 Betano 2.77BetVictor 2.75Bet365 2.70
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 5.3% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.34 β†’ 2.03 β–Ό13% 81% 48.7% 2.03 1xBet 49.8% -1.1 pp
Double Chance X2 73% 75% 1.34 Betano 73.5% +1.5 pp
BTTS No 81% 49% 2.80 BetVictor 34% +15 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 50.8% 2.77 Betano 34.7% +16.1 pp
Correct Score 0-1 70% 11.4% 13.00 Bet365 4% +7.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.6 exp.) Over 9.5 65% 56.2% 1.52 Betano 61.4% -5.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: PEC Zwolle 0.84 – 1.35 GO Ahead Eagles Β· expected total 2.19

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

PEC Zwolle sit 16th with just 4 points from 8 matches, while GO Ahead Eagles arrive 8th on 11 points, and the gap in the table is reflected in the model's lean. Zwolle's recent form reads LLLDL, a side short on confidence and, crucially, short on bodies: Y. Namli, S. Floranus, J. Burger, F. Krastev and R. Thomas are all listed as injury concerns. The visitors are hardly at full strength either, with G. Nauber, P. Saathof, R. Weijenberg, G. van Zwam, J. Dirksen and E. Waayers unavailable, but their form line of DDDDL at least shows they are hard to beat.

The numbers behind the model tell a clear story. Zwolle's expected goals stand at 0.8392, with recent xG of 0.83, while GO Ahead Eagles post 1.3487 and a recent xG of 1.94. That attacking edge explains the away win tip at 48.7 percent, priced at 2.03, and the double chance X2 at 75 percent. The head-to-head record reinforces it: a 5-0 and a 0-2 in the last two meetings, plus three draws before that.

Where might value hide? The model leans Under 2.5 at 50.8 percent against odds of 2.77, and BTTS No at 49 percent against 2.8, both offering a touch of cushion. The correct score favourite is 0-1 at 11.4 percent, with 0-2 and 1-2 close behind. Corners look lively, with an expected 11.6 and Over 9.5 at 56.2 percent.

The honest caveat: neither side is healthy, and a low-scoring, scrappy draw is entirely plausible given both teams' recent stalemates. Treat the away win as the model's preference, not a certainty.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

PEC Zwolle

Form (last 5)
LCambuur (H) 0–1 Β· 11/10/2026LGroningen (A) 0–3 Β· 18/09/2026LFeyenoord (H) 0–7 Β· 13/09/2026DSparta Rotterdam (A) 2–2 Β· 04/09/2026LNEC Nijmegen (H) 1–3 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)2.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.67
xG against (recent avg)1.62
Elo strength rating1315
Players out5

GO Ahead Eagles

Form (last 5)
DSparta Rotterdam (H) 3–3 Β· 10/10/2026DNEC Nijmegen (A) 1–1 Β· 20/09/2026DGroningen (H) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026DUtrecht (A) 3–3 Β· 08/09/2026LAZ Alkmaar (A) 2–5 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)2.10
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.57
xG against (recent avg)0.81
Elo strength rating1437
Players out6
PEC ZwolleGO Ahead Eagles
Goals scored (season avg)
0.80
2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.60
2.10
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.67
1.57
xG against (recent avg)
1.62
0.81
Elo strength rating
1315
1437
Players out
5
6

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

PEC Zwolle

Lost 3 in a row Winless 5
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

GO Ahead Eagles

Unbeaten 4 Winless 5
BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle

Worst attack (0.80 goals/game)

GO Ahead Eagles

Best BTTS rate (100%)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

PEC Zwolle at home Β· GO Ahead Eagles away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

PEC Zwolle (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–4L
L 4
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.30
Goals conceded (avg)3.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score3

GO Ahead Eagles (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–1L
D 3
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
PEC Zwolle (home)GO Ahead Eagles (away)
L 4
D 3
L 1
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.30
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
3.30
2.80
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
3
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
11.4%
0–2
8.4%
1–2
7%
0–3
3.8%
1–3
3.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

GO Ahead Eagles 4 wins Β· 4 draws Β· PEC Zwolle 2 wins Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

4
4
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Apr 2026 GO Ahead Eagles 5–0 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
21 Sep 2025 PEC Zwolle 0–2 GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie
11 May 2025 PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie
03 Nov 2024 GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
11 Feb 2024 GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
17 Sep 2023 PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie
03 Apr 2022 PEC Zwolle 0–1 GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie
19 Sep 2021 GO Ahead Eagles 1–0 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
19 Mar 2017 GO Ahead Eagles 1–3 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
30 Oct 2016 PEC Zwolle 3–1 GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

PEC Zwolle

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Cambuur Home 0–1 L
18/09 Groningen Away 0–3 L
13/09 Feyenoord Home 0–7 L
04/09 Sparta Rotterdam Away 2–2 D
29/08 NEC Nijmegen Home 1–3 L

GO Ahead Eagles

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Sparta Rotterdam Home 3–3 D
20/09 NEC Nijmegen Away 1–1 D
12/09 Groningen Home 1–1 D
08/09 Utrecht Away 3–3 D
29/08 AZ Alkmaar Away 2–5 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle #16 Β· 4 pts β€”  GO Ahead Eagles #8 Β· 11 pts

PEC Zwolle

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–6L
W 1
D 1
L 6
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)2.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Yellow cards12
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.67
xG against (avg)1.62
Corners for (avg)5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

GO Ahead Eagles

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–1L
W 2
D 5
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.10
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.57
xG against (avg)0.81
Corners for (avg)6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
PEC ZwolleGO Ahead Eagles
W 1
D 1
L 6
W 2
D 5
L 1
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
2.40
Goals conceded (avg)
2.60
2.10
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
4
0
Yellow cards
12
7
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
0.67
1.57
xG against (avg)
1.62
0.81
Corners for (avg)
5.00
6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

PEC Zwolle

1
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
1
scored conceded

GO Ahead Eagles

3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

PEC Zwolle

  • ❌ Y. Namli β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Floranus β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Burger β€” Knock
  • ❌ F. Krastev β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ R. Thomas β€” Injury

GO Ahead Eagles

  • ❌ G. Nauber β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ P. Saathof β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Weijenberg β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ G. van Zwam β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Dirksen β€” Inactive
  • ❌ E. Waayers β€” Injury

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws