Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar

Next match: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ De Adelaarshorst β€’ ☁️ 11.1Β°C, 8 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 85% 59.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 81% 48.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: GO Ahead Eagles 1.72 – 0.87 Telstar Β· expected total 2.59

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Go Ahead Eagles host Telstar at De Adelaarshorst on Friday night sitting eighth in the Eredivisie on 11 points from 8 games, while the visitors arrive 15th with just 6 points from the same number of outings. The gap in the table frames this as a home fixture the Eagles should control, even if their recent form of DDDDL hardly screams dominance.

The model leans heavily on the underlying numbers rather than the results column. Go Ahead Eagles are generating 1.94 expected goals across recent matches and carry a season attacking figure of 1.7249, while Telstar's recent expected goals sit at just 0.81 with a season mark of 0.8692. That attacking chasm explains why the home side is priced at 59.2% to win and 79.4% on the double chance. The goals markets are tighter than you might expect: Under 2.5 lands at 47.4% and both teams to score at 48.6%, so the model is not forecasting a shootout. Corners look more appealing, with an expected 10.1 and Over 9.5 at 53.3%. The correct-score picture points to 1-0 as the single most likely outcome at 9.5%, followed by 2-0 and 2-1.

The obvious risk is Go Ahead Eagles' form line of five without a win, plus six listed absentees including G. Nauber and P. Saathof, which could blunt the edge the numbers suggest. Telstar have no injuries reported and won two of the last five head-to-heads, so the value may hide in the double chance rather than the outright win.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

GO Ahead Eagles

Form (last 5)
DSparta Rotterdam (H) 3–3 Β· 10/10/2026DNEC Nijmegen (A) 1–1 Β· 20/09/2026DGroningen (H) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026DUtrecht (A) 3–3 Β· 08/09/2026LAZ Alkmaar (A) 2–5 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)2.10
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.57
xG against (recent avg)0.81
Elo strength rating1437
Players out6

Telstar

Form (last 5)
LAZ Alkmaar (A) 0–1 Β· 20/09/2026DHeerenveen (A) 0–0 Β· 13/09/2026LTwente (A) 0–1 Β· 09/09/2026DCambuur (H) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026LAjax (H) 0–4 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.66
xG against (recent avg)1.47
Elo strength rating1361
Players outβ€”
GO Ahead EaglesTelstar
Goals scored (season avg)
2.40
0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.10
1.70
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.57
0.66
xG against (recent avg)
0.81
1.47
Elo strength rating
1437
1361
Players out
6
β€”

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

GO Ahead Eagles

Unbeaten 4 Winless 5
BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Telstar

Winless 6
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

GO Ahead Eagles

Best BTTS rate (100%)

Telstar

Worst attack (0.70 goals/game) 2nd worst BTTS rate (33%)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

GO Ahead Eagles at home Β· Telstar away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

GO Ahead Eagles (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–0L
W 2
D 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Telstar (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
GO Ahead Eagles (home)Telstar (away)
W 2
D 2
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
2.80
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
0.80
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.5%
2–0
9%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
5.2%
3–1
4.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

GO Ahead Eagles 4 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Telstar 3 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 9

4
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Feb 2026 GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Telstar Eredivisie
05 Feb 2026 Telstar 2–1 GO Ahead Eagles KNVB Beker
28 Sep 2025 Telstar 4–2 GO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie
03 Jul 2024 GO Ahead Eagles 3–0 Telstar Friendlies Clubs
13 Feb 2021 GO Ahead Eagles 1–0 Telstar Eerste Divisie
10 Nov 2020 Telstar 1–2 GO Ahead Eagles Eerste Divisie
02 Aug 2020 GO Ahead Eagles 0–0 Telstar Friendlies Clubs
17 Nov 2019 Telstar 0–2 GO Ahead Eagles Eerste Divisie
01 Apr 2019 GO Ahead Eagles 2–3 Telstar Eerste Divisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

GO Ahead Eagles

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Sparta Rotterdam Home 3–3 D
20/09 NEC Nijmegen Away 1–1 D
12/09 Groningen Home 1–1 D
08/09 Utrecht Away 3–3 D
29/08 AZ Alkmaar Away 2–5 L

Telstar

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 AZ Alkmaar Away 0–1 L
13/09 Heerenveen Away 0–0 D
09/09 Twente Away 0–1 L
06/09 Cambuur Home 2–2 D
30/08 Ajax Home 0–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

GO Ahead Eagles #8 Β· 11 pts β€”  Telstar #15 Β· 6 pts

GO Ahead Eagles

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–1L
W 2
D 5
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.10
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.57
xG against (avg)0.81
Corners for (avg)6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Telstar

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–4L
W 1
D 3
L 4
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Yellow cards10
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.66
xG against (avg)1.47
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
GO Ahead EaglesTelstar
W 2
D 5
L 1
W 1
D 3
L 4
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
2.40
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
2.10
1.70
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
4
Yellow cards
7
10
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
1.57
0.66
xG against (avg)
0.81
1.47
Corners for (avg)
6.40
3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

GO Ahead Eagles

3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
4
scored conceded

Telstar

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

GO Ahead Eagles

  • ❌ G. Nauber β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ P. Saathof β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Weijenberg β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ G. van Zwam β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Dirksen β€” Inactive
  • ❌ E. Waayers β€” Injury

Telstar

No reported absences.

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws