Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ Stadion Galgenwaard β€’ β›… 12Β°C, 14 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 82% 51% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 74% 75.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 81% 49% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Utrecht 1.55 – 0.92 PEC Zwolle Β· expected total 2.47

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Utrecht host PEC Zwolle at Stadion Galgenwaard on Saturday with both sides stuck in the wrong half of the Eredivisie table. Utrecht sit 13th on 8 points from 8 games, while Zwolle are 16th with just 4 points from 8 β€” a gap that frames this as a genuine opportunity for the home side to pull clear of trouble.

The model leans clearly toward Utrecht, giving them a 51 percent win probability at 82 percent confidence, with the double chance on the home side priced at 75.7 percent. Recent form is hardly inspiring β€” Utrecht's last five read LWDLD, Zwolle's LLDLW β€” and the underlying numbers are modest, with Utrecht's recent expected goals at 0.98 and Zwolle's at 0.83. The season-long attacking projections sit at 1.548 for the hosts against 0.9219 for the visitors, which explains the edge. Utrecht also carry a lengthy injury list including O. Agougil, A. Engwanda and V. Jensen, while Zwolle are without Y. Namli, S. Floranus and J. Burger among others.

For bettors, the headline plays are the home win and the 1X double chance. Both teams to score lands at 49 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 49.6 percent β€” essentially coin flips, so the value likely hides in the match result rather than the goals markets. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 11.9 percent, ahead of 2-0 at 10.15 and 2-1 at 9.35. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 54 percent with an expected 10.5.

The honest caveat is that 51 percent is far from dominant, and Utrecht's own form and injury list mean this could easily turn into a scrappy, low-quality affair where the draw β€” as in February's 1-1 β€” punishes anyone backing the home win too heavily.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Utrecht

Form (last 5)
LFeyenoord (A) 0–5 Β· 20/09/2026WExcelsior (A) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026DGO Ahead Eagles (H) 3–3 Β· 08/09/2026LPSV Eindhoven (H) 1–6 Β· 30/08/2026DSparta Rotterdam (A) 3–3 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)3.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.79
xG against (recent avg)1.83
Elo strength rating1557
Players out11

PEC Zwolle

Form (last 5)
LGroningen (A) 0–3 Β· 18/09/2026LFeyenoord (H) 0–7 Β· 13/09/2026DSparta Rotterdam (A) 2–2 Β· 04/09/2026LNEC Nijmegen (H) 1–3 Β· 29/08/2026WHeerenveen (A) 2–0 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)2.90
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.67
xG against (recent avg)1.62
Elo strength rating1315
Players out5
UtrechtPEC Zwolle
LFeyenoord (A) 0–5 Β· 20/09/2026WExcelsior (A) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026DGO Ahead Eagles (H) 3–3 Β· 08/09/2026LPSV Eindhoven (H) 1–6 Β· 30/08/2026DSparta Rotterdam (A) 3–3 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
3.40
2.90
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.79
0.67
xG against (recent avg)
1.83
1.62
Elo strength rating
1557
1315
Players out
11
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Utrecht

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

PEC Zwolle

Lost 2 in a row Winless 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

Utrecht

Worst defence (3.40 conceded/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

PEC Zwolle

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Utrecht at home Β· PEC Zwolle away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Utrecht (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)4.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

PEC Zwolle (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Utrecht (home)PEC Zwolle (away)
D 1
L 2
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played
3
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
4.30
2.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.6%
2–0
8.2%
2–1
7.5%
3–0
4.2%
3–1
3.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

PEC Zwolle 1 win Β· 5 draws Β· Utrecht 4 wins Β· avg 3.4 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 10

1
5
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
22 Feb 2026 Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
31 Aug 2025 PEC Zwolle 0–2 Utrecht Eredivisie
01 Feb 2025 PEC Zwolle 3–3 Utrecht Eredivisie
11 Aug 2024 Utrecht 1–0 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
03 Apr 2024 Utrecht 5–1 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
27 Aug 2023 PEC Zwolle 1–0 Utrecht Eredivisie
07 May 2022 PEC Zwolle 1–1 Utrecht Eredivisie
25 Sep 2021 Utrecht 5–1 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
30 Jan 2021 Utrecht 3–3 PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
21 Nov 2020 PEC Zwolle 1–1 Utrecht Eredivisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Utrecht

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Feyenoord Away 0–5 L
13/09 Excelsior Away 2–1 W
08/09 GO Ahead Eagles Home 3–3 D
30/08 PSV Eindhoven Home 1–6 L
22/08 Sparta Rotterdam Away 3–3 D

PEC Zwolle

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/09 Groningen Away 0–3 L
13/09 Feyenoord Home 0–7 L
04/09 Sparta Rotterdam Away 2–2 D
29/08 NEC Nijmegen Home 1–3 L
22/08 Heerenveen Away 2–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

Utrecht #13 Β· 8 pts β€”  PEC Zwolle #16 Β· 4 pts

Utrecht

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–4L
W 2
D 2
L 4
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)3.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards15
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.79
xG against (avg)1.83
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

PEC Zwolle

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–6L
W 1
D 1
L 6
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)2.90
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards9
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.67
xG against (avg)1.62
Corners for (avg)5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1
UtrechtPEC Zwolle
W 2
D 2
L 4
W 1
D 1
L 6
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
3.40
2.90
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
15
9
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.79
0.67
xG against (avg)
1.83
1.62
Corners for (avg)
3.60
5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Utrecht

4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
6
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
5
scored conceded

PEC Zwolle

1
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Utrecht

  • ❌ O. Agougil β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Engwanda β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ V. Jensen β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Jonathans β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Ohio β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. van Ommeren β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ M. Broholm β€” Inactive
  • ❌ K. Paredes β€” Inactive
  • ❌ N. Vesterlund β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. van Overeem β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Stepanov β€” Ankle Injury

PEC Zwolle

  • ❌ Y. Namli β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Floranus β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Burger β€” Knock
  • ❌ F. Krastev β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ R. Thomas β€” Injury

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws