Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel β€’ β˜€οΈ 10Β°C, 9 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.57 β†’ 1.62 β–²3% 87% 64.9% 1.62 1xBet 62.7% +2.2 pp
Double Chance 1X 76% 77.9% 1.19 Betano 82.8% -4.9 pp
BTTS Yes 82% 50.9% 1.57 Bet365 61.1% -10.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.8% 1.48 Bet365 65% -15.2 pp
Correct Score 1-0 64% 8.3% 10.50 Marathonbet 4.9% +3.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12 exp.) Over 9.5 66% 57% 1.50 Betano 62.5% -5.5 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.78 – 0.96 Willem II Β· expected total 2.74

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II at Het Kasteel on Saturday in a clash between two sides stuck in the Eredivisie's lower reaches. Sparta sit 14th on 6 points from 8 games, while Willem II are bottom on 2 points from 8 β€” the stakes are modest in table terms but heavy in mood, with both clubs desperate for a lift.

The model leans firmly home. Sparta's recent form reads DLLDL, Willem II's LLDLD, and the expected goals split is telling: 1.7782 for the hosts against 0.96 for the visitors, with recent xG at 1.37 and 1.19 respectively. The head-to-head record is chaotic β€” Willem II won 1-5 in December 2025 and 3-1 in July 2025, but Sparta answered with a 4-0 in March 2025 β€” a reminder this fixture rarely behaves. Injuries bite both squads: Sparta list five absentees, Willem II a remarkable eleven.

The headline tip is a home win at 64.9% probability, priced at 1.62, with confidence at 87. Double chance 1X lands at 77.9%. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 50.9% (odds 1.57), and Over 2.5 goals sits at 49.8% (odds 1.48) β€” both markets look thin on value. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 8.3%, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners offer the most interesting angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 57% with an expected 12.

The honest caveat: Sparta's own form is poor and the H2H shows Willem II capable of a blowout, so the 1.62 home price carries real risk despite the model's confidence.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Sparta Rotterdam

Form (last 5)
DGO Ahead Eagles (A) 3–3 Β· 10/10/2026LHeerenveen (H) 0–4 Β· 19/09/2026LPSV Eindhoven (A) 1–4 Β· 13/09/2026DPEC Zwolle (H) 2–2 Β· 04/09/2026LExcelsior (A) 1–2 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)2.50
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.11
xG against (recent avg)1.86
Elo strength rating1429
Players out5

Willem II

Form (last 5)
LFortuna Sittard (H) 0–1 Β· 19/09/2026LAjax (A) 1–5 Β· 15/09/2026DAZ Alkmaar (A) 1–1 Β· 11/09/2026LExcelsior (H) 0–3 Β· 05/09/2026DHeerenveen (H) 2–2 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)2.90
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.19
xG against (recent avg)2.17
Elo strength rating1312
Players out11
Sparta RotterdamWillem II
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.50
2.90
Win streak (best this season)
1
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.11
1.19
xG against (recent avg)
1.86
2.17
Elo strength rating
1429
1312
Players out
5
11

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Sparta Rotterdam

Winless 6
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Willem II

Lost 2 in a row Winless 7
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Willem II

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Sparta Rotterdam at home Β· Willem II away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Sparta Rotterdam (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–2L
D 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Willem II (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)3.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Sparta Rotterdam (home)Willem II (away)
D 2
L 2
D 1
L 2
Played
4
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.50
3.30
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
2
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.3%
2–0
8.2%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
4.8%
3–1
4.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Sparta Rotterdam 8 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Willem II 1 win Β· avg 3.6 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 9

8
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Dec 2025 Willem II 1–5 Sparta Rotterdam KNVB Beker
26 Jul 2025 Willem II 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam Friendlies Clubs
02 Mar 2025 Sparta Rotterdam 4–0 Willem II Eredivisie
31 Aug 2024 Willem II 1–2 Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie
27 Jul 2024 Willem II 2–4 Sparta Rotterdam Friendlies Clubs
29 Jul 2023 Willem II 0–3 Sparta Rotterdam Friendlies Clubs
20 Jul 2022 Willem II 0–2 Sparta Rotterdam Friendlies Clubs
13 Feb 2022 Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 Willem II Eredivisie
06 Nov 2021 Willem II 0–3 Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Sparta Rotterdam

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 GO Ahead Eagles Away 3–3 D
19/09 Heerenveen Home 0–4 L
13/09 PSV Eindhoven Away 1–4 L
04/09 PEC Zwolle Home 2–2 D
29/08 Excelsior Away 1–2 L

Willem II

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Fortuna Sittard Home 0–1 L
15/09 Ajax Away 1–5 L
11/09 AZ Alkmaar Away 1–1 D
05/09 Excelsior Home 0–3 L
30/08 Heerenveen Home 2–2 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam #14 Β· 6 pts β€”  Willem II #18 Β· 2 pts

Sparta Rotterdam

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–4L
W 1
D 3
L 4
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)2.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards11
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.11
xG against (avg)1.86
Corners for (avg)6.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Willem II

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–6L
D 2
L 6
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)2.90
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.19
xG against (avg)2.17
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Sparta RotterdamWillem II
W 1
D 3
L 4
D 2
L 6
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
2.50
2.90
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
2
2
Yellow cards
11
8
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.11
1.19
xG against (avg)
1.86
2.17
Corners for (avg)
6.20
4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Sparta Rotterdam

0-15
2
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
3
scored conceded

Willem II

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
46-60
8
61-75
1
4
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Sparta Rotterdam

  • ❌ J. Baas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Kostic β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ R. van Cruijsen β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Mito β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. van Bergen β€” Inactive

Willem II

  • ❌ A. Culum β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ A. Lachkar β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ J. Schuurman β€” Knock
  • ❌ A. Zarrouk β€” Surgery
  • ❌ H. ter Avest β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ T. Didillon Hodl β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ L. Abildgaard β€” Inactive
  • ❌ T. Vilhena β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Hoogma β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ V. van Crooij β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ K. Boogaard β€” Knock

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws