Our model gives Cashmere Technical win a 90% confidence rating
New Zealand National League Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches β’ Next 20 Days β’ 5 Matches β’ Round 4 β’ Updated 33 minutes ago β’ UTC+3
Championship Group, Round 4
Saturday, October 17
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | WWWLD |
Miramar
vs
Auckland City
|
DWWWW | 86% | 62.9% | Home | N/A | β |
| 05:00 | DLWWW |
Wellington Olympic
vs
Eastern Suburbs
|
LDWDL | 89% | 69.3% | Home | N/A | β |
Sunday, October 18
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | WLWWL |
Birkenhead United
vs
Napier City Rovers
|
LDLWW | 87% | 64.7% | Home | N/A | β |
| 04:00 | WWLWW |
Cashmere Technical
vs
Auckland FC 2
|
LLWWW | 90% | 72.5% | Home | N/A | β |
| 06:00 | WDLLL |
Auckland United
vs
Ferrymead Bays
|
LWDLW | 82% | 52.2% | Home | N/A | β |
Top Trends from National League Teams
Our model gives Wellington Olympic win a 89% confidence rating
Our model gives Auckland City win a 89% confidence rating
Our model gives Birkenhead United win a 87% confidence rating
Our model gives Miramar win a 86% confidence rating
Our model gives Napier City Rovers win a 86% confidence rating
In their 10 most recent matches, Wellington Phoenix II have achieved just 2 wins
Predictlix National League Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Auckland City carry the sharpest edge in this window, with the PredictLix model rating their home clash against Auckland United at 90 confidence and 73.3%, the highest probability on the board. That gap stems from a home attack projected at 2.4143 goals against an away figure of just 1.025. Cashmere Technical also impress at 89 confidence and 70.4% against Auckland FC 2, while Birkenhead United versus Napier City Rovers sits at 86 confidence and 62%. Back Auckland City to win, given 82.4% accuracy on high-confidence picks.
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Auckland City's goal output stands out, with the PredictLix model projecting 2.4143 home goals against Auckland United's 1.025, driving Over 2.5 at 55.6% for their Championship Group - 5 clash. Cashmere Technical carry a 2.1481 home lambda into the tie with Auckland FC 2, whose 0.9081 away figure points to a one-sided contest favouring Over 2.5 at 57.9%. Eastern Suburbs versus Miramar is the outlier, leaning Under 2.5 at 49.3% with modest lambdas of 1.309 and 1.5005. Best single: Over 2.5 in Birkenhead United vs Napier City Rovers at 61.1%.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Cashmere Technical arrive with two straight wins and two clean sheets, the sharpest streak in the window. Auckland United have won just 0 of their last 6 away matches, a stubborn travel problem. Wellington Phoenix II have won only 1 of their last 5 away matches. Auckland FC 2 and Birkenhead United remain winless, with Birkenhead's single loss the shortest sample here. Early season caveat applies, since teams have played at most 2 rounds.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Cashmere Technical stand out defensively with two clean sheets and just 0 conceded per game, while Wellington Phoenix II leak badly at 5.5 conceded per game without a single shutout. Auckland United ship 1 per game, Miramar 0.5, and Eastern Suburbs 2. Birkenhead United concede 4 per game, Napier City Rovers 4, and Auckland FC 2 sit at 2.5.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Cashmere Technical lead the Championship Group standings on 6 points with a goal difference of +14, while Birkenhead United sit bottom on 0 points after a single loss. With only two rounds played, the table is not yet meaningful, so no side is chasing a title or fighting relegation. Auckland United and Miramar each hold 4 points, and Auckland City's 3 points keep them within touching distance ahead of a busy round of fixtures.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Cashmere Technical's perfect start, two wins from two with seven goals scored, makes them the standout side in this window. Yet the accumulator section offers no build: there are not enough priced high-confidence legs to construct one, so no acca can be quoted honestly. The strongest single is Auckland City, whose 90% confidence and 73.3% probability against Auckland United is the highest in the window. Back that home win alone.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types β wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form β Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration β Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 60-69% | 63.0% | 33.3% | 3 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· <60% | 40.9% | 33.3% | 6 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 80+% | 84.2% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· <60% | 53.5% | 88.9% | 9 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· 60-69% | 60.2% | 0.0% | 1 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· <60% | 53.7% | 100.0% | 8 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· 60-69% | 61.1% | 50.0% | 2 |
| Correct Score Β· <60% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 10 |
| Double Chance Β· 70-79% | 75.3% | 85.7% | 7 |
| Double Chance Β· 80+% | 82.3% | 0.0% | 1 |
| Double Chance Β· 60-69% | 69.4% | 100.0% | 2 |
| Draw Predictions Β· <60% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 1 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Championship Group, Round 3
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 04:30 | LDWLL |
Wellington Phoenix II
vs
Birkenhead United
|
WLWWL | 79% | 42.2% | Home β | N/A | 0 β 1 FT |
| 10/10 05:00 | DWWWW |
Auckland City
vs
Wellington Olympic
|
DLWWW | 84% | 56.8% | Home β | @1.77 | 2 β 2 FT |
| 10/10 06:00 | LWDLW |
Ferrymead Bays
vs
Miramar
|
WWWLD | 74% | 31.4% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 4 FT |
| 11/10 02:00 | LLWWW |
Auckland FC 2
vs
Auckland United
|
WDLLL | 84% | 56.6% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 2 FT |
| 11/10 03:00 | LDLWW |
Napier City Rovers
vs
Cashmere Technical
|
WWLWW | 77% | 38.9% | Away β | N/A | 2 β 1 FT |