New Zealand National League Predictions and Betting Tips

Upcoming Matches β€’ Next 20 Days β€’ 5 Matches β€’ Round 4 β€’ Updated 33 minutes ago β€’ UTC+3

Championship Group, Round 4

Saturday, October 17

Time Home Form Match Away Form Confidence Probability Prediction Odds Result
03:00 WWWLD
Miramar Miramar vs Auckland City Auckland City
DWWWW 86% 62.9% Home N/A β€”
05:00 DLWWW
Wellington Olympic Wellington Olympic vs Eastern Suburbs Eastern Suburbs
LDWDL 89% 69.3% Home N/A β€”

Sunday, October 18

Time Home Form Match Away Form Confidence Probability Prediction Odds Result
04:00 WLWWL
Birkenhead United Birkenhead United vs Napier City Rovers Napier City Rovers
LDLWW 87% 64.7% Home N/A β€”
04:00 WWLWW
Cashmere Technical Cashmere Technical vs Auckland FC 2 Auckland FC 2
LLWWW 90% 72.5% Home N/A β€”
06:00 WDLLL
Auckland United Auckland United vs Ferrymead Bays Ferrymead Bays
LWDLW 82% 52.2% Home N/A β€”

Predictlix National League Insights

Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026

🎯

Match Outcome Confidence Map

Auckland City carry the sharpest edge in this window, with the PredictLix model rating their home clash against Auckland United at 90 confidence and 73.3%, the highest probability on the board. That gap stems from a home attack projected at 2.4143 goals against an away figure of just 1.025. Cashmere Technical also impress at 89 confidence and 70.4% against Auckland FC 2, while Birkenhead United versus Napier City Rovers sits at 86 confidence and 62%. Back Auckland City to win, given 82.4% accuracy on high-confidence picks.

⚽

Goals Landscape β€” Over/Under Breakdown

Auckland City's goal output stands out, with the PredictLix model projecting 2.4143 home goals against Auckland United's 1.025, driving Over 2.5 at 55.6% for their Championship Group - 5 clash. Cashmere Technical carry a 2.1481 home lambda into the tie with Auckland FC 2, whose 0.9081 away figure points to a one-sided contest favouring Over 2.5 at 57.9%. Eastern Suburbs versus Miramar is the outlier, leaning Under 2.5 at 49.3% with modest lambdas of 1.309 and 1.5005. Best single: Over 2.5 in Birkenhead United vs Napier City Rovers at 61.1%.

πŸ”₯

Streak & Momentum Signals

Cashmere Technical arrive with two straight wins and two clean sheets, the sharpest streak in the window. Auckland United have won just 0 of their last 6 away matches, a stubborn travel problem. Wellington Phoenix II have won only 1 of their last 5 away matches. Auckland FC 2 and Birkenhead United remain winless, with Birkenhead's single loss the shortest sample here. Early season caveat applies, since teams have played at most 2 rounds.

🧱

Defensive Lines β€” Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences

Cashmere Technical stand out defensively with two clean sheets and just 0 conceded per game, while Wellington Phoenix II leak badly at 5.5 conceded per game without a single shutout. Auckland United ship 1 per game, Miramar 0.5, and Eastern Suburbs 2. Birkenhead United concede 4 per game, Napier City Rovers 4, and Auckland FC 2 sit at 2.5.

🏟️

Standings Context & Match Motivation

Cashmere Technical lead the Championship Group standings on 6 points with a goal difference of +14, while Birkenhead United sit bottom on 0 points after a single loss. With only two rounds played, the table is not yet meaningful, so no side is chasing a title or fighting relegation. Auckland United and Miramar each hold 4 points, and Auckland City's 3 points keep them within touching distance ahead of a busy round of fixtures.

πŸ’°

Accumulator Builder & Value Picks

Cashmere Technical's perfect start, two wins from two with seven goals scored, makes them the standout side in this window. Yet the accumulator section offers no build: there are not enough priced high-confidence legs to construct one, so no acca can be quoted honestly. The strongest single is Auckland City, whose 90% confidence and 73.3% probability against Auckland United is the highest in the window. Back that home win alone.

πŸ“‘

AI Prediction Accuracy β€” Season 2026/27

Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types β€” wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.

10 matches analysed Updated Oct 11, 2026 Full record β€” wins and losses β†’ Value bets β†’
🎯 Match Result (1X2)
40.0% 4/10
⚽ Both Teams to Score
80.0% 8/10
πŸ“ˆ Over / Under 2.5
90.0% 9/10
πŸ”’ Correct Score
10.0% 1/10
πŸ›‘οΈ Double Chance
80.0% 8/10
🀝 Draw Predictions
0.0% 0/1

Recent Form β€” Last 30 Days

🎯 Match Result (1X2) 40.0% 4/10
⚽ Both Teams to Score 80.0% 8/10
πŸ“ˆ Over / Under 2.5 90.0% 9/10
πŸ›‘οΈ Double Chance 80.0% 8/10

Probability Calibration β€” Does 70% Really Mean 70%?

Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.

MarketPredictedActualSample
Match Result (1X2) Β· 60-69% 63.0% 33.3% 3
Match Result (1X2) Β· <60% 40.9% 33.3% 6
Match Result (1X2) Β· 80+% 84.2% 100.0% 1
Both Teams to Score Β· <60% 53.5% 88.9% 9
Both Teams to Score Β· 60-69% 60.2% 0.0% 1
Over / Under 2.5 Β· <60% 53.7% 100.0% 8
Over / Under 2.5 Β· 60-69% 61.1% 50.0% 2
Correct Score Β· <60% 7.2% 10.0% 10
Double Chance Β· 70-79% 75.3% 85.7% 7
Double Chance Β· 80+% 82.3% 0.0% 1
Double Chance Β· 60-69% 69.4% 100.0% 2
Draw Predictions Β· <60% 27.1% 0.0% 1

Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.

Previous Round Results: Championship Group, Round 3

Date / Time Home Form Match Away Form Confidence Probability Prediction Odds Result
10/10 04:30 LDWLL
Wellington Phoenix II Wellington Phoenix II vs Birkenhead United Birkenhead United
WLWWL 79% 42.2% Home ❌ N/A 0 – 1 FT
10/10 05:00 DWWWW
Auckland City Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic Wellington Olympic
DLWWW 84% 56.8% Home ❌ @1.77 2 – 2 FT
10/10 06:00 LWDLW
Ferrymead Bays Ferrymead Bays vs Miramar Miramar
WWWLD 74% 31.4% Home ❌ N/A 1 – 4 FT
11/10 02:00 LLWWW
Auckland FC 2 Auckland FC 2 vs Auckland United Auckland United
WDLLL 84% 56.6% Home ❌ N/A 2 – 2 FT
11/10 03:00 LDLWW
Napier City Rovers Napier City Rovers vs Cashmere Technical Cashmere Technical
WWLWW 77% 38.9% Away ❌ N/A 2 – 1 FT