Predictions β†’ Portugal Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Arouca

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ FC Alverca Sports Complex β€’ 🌦 20.7Β°C, 2 km/h, 0.8mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 80% 47% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 72% 73.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 49.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 66% 9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.6 exp.) Under 9.5 66% 56.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Alverca 1.50 – 0.99 Arouca Β· expected total 2.49

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Alverca host Arouca in Round 9 of the Primeira Liga at the FC Alverca Sports Complex, with the visitors sitting fifth on 14 points from 8 games while the hosts occupy tenth on 8 points from 7. The table gap looks wide, but the model reads this as a genuine home opportunity rather than an upset chase.

Form points the same way. Alverca arrive on a WWLDL run, while Arouca have gone DLDWL and carry the weaker recent attacking numbers: 0.8 expected goals across their recent matches against 1.58 for the hosts. Season-long expected goals tell a similar story, with Alverca at 1.5048 and Arouca at 0.9895. Neither side reports injuries, so both should field close to full strength.

The headline tip is a home win at 47 percent probability with 80 percent confidence, and the double chance 1X at 73.4 percent is the safer route if you want to avoid the draw risk entirely. The goals markets lean low: Under 2.5 lands at 51.1 percent, BTTS No at 49.5 percent, and the correct-score model favours 1-0 at 11.2 percent, ahead of 2-0 at 9.36 and 2-1 at 9.26. Corners also point under, with an expected 7.6 and Under 9.5 at 56.7 percent.

Value may hide in the double chance and the unders, where the model's edge looks more robust than the outright result. The honest caveat: no bookmaker odds were provided, so we cannot confirm whether the market has already priced in this home lean. If Alverca are shorter than expected, the 1X and Under 2.5 combinations are where the numbers still make sense.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Alverca

Form (last 5)
WRio Ave (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WNacional (A) 3–1 Β· 12/09/2026LSC Braga (H) 1–2 Β· 05/09/2026DSanta Clara (H) 1–1 Β· 29/08/2026LSporting CP (A) 1–3 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.58
xG against (recent avg)1.52
Elo strength rating1479

Arouca

Form (last 5)
DSporting CP (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026LSanta Clara (H) 1–2 Β· 13/09/2026DEstoril (A) 0–0 Β· 07/09/2026WMaritimo (H) 2–1 Β· 29/08/2026LFC Porto (A) 0–2 Β· 23/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.44
xG against (recent avg)0.80
Elo strength rating1538
AlvercaArouca
WRio Ave (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WNacional (A) 3–1 Β· 12/09/2026LSC Braga (H) 1–2 Β· 05/09/2026DSanta Clara (H) 1–1 Β· 29/08/2026LSporting CP (A) 1–3 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.58
0.44
xG against (recent avg)
1.52
0.80
Elo strength rating
1479
1538

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Alverca

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Arouca

Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Primeira Liga

Alverca

Best BTTS rate (83%)

Arouca

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Alverca at home Β· Arouca away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Alverca (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Arouca (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Alverca (home)Arouca (away)
W 1
D 2
L 1
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.00
Clean sheets
1
2
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9%
2–0
7.5%
2–1
7.4%
3–0
3.8%
3–1
3.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Alverca 1 win Β· 0 draws Β· Arouca 1 win Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 2

1
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 Apr 2026 Alverca 2–1 Arouca Primeira Liga
14 Dec 2025 Arouca 1–0 Alverca Primeira Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Alverca

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Rio Ave Home 1–0 W
12/09 Nacional Away 3–1 W
05/09 SC Braga Home 1–2 L
29/08 Santa Clara Home 1–1 D
22/08 Sporting CP Away 1–3 L

Arouca

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Sporting CP Away 2–2 D
13/09 Santa Clara Home 1–2 L
07/09 Estoril Away 0–0 D
29/08 Maritimo Home 2–1 W
23/08 FC Porto Away 0–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Primeira Liga

Alverca #10 Β· 8 pts β€”  Arouca #5 Β· 14 pts

Alverca

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–3L
W 2
D 2
L 3
Played7
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards16
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.58
xG against (avg)1.52
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Arouca

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–2L
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.44
xG against (avg)0.80
Corners for (avg)2.70
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
AlvercaArouca
W 2
D 2
L 3
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played
7
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.00
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
1
2
Yellow cards
16
19
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.58
0.44
xG against (avg)
1.52
0.80
Corners for (avg)
4.80
2.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Alverca

2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Arouca

1
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primeira Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws