Famalicao vs Alverca
Next match: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 • 19:15 UTC+3 • Round 8 • Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho • 🌤 16.8°C, 2 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.87 → 1.94 ▲4% | 81% | 49.4% | 1.94 | 1xBet | 53.1% | -3.7 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 70% | 70.5% | 1.24 | 1xBet | 80.5% | -10 pp |
| BTTS | No | 81% | 49.2% | 2.05 | Betfair | 48.2% | +1 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83% | 53.3% | 1.84 | Pinnacle | 52.8% | +0.5 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 69% | 10.8% | 7.00 | Bet365 | 7.2% | +3.6 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 62% | 53.7% | 1.98 | Bet365 | 49.2% | +4.5 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Famalicao 1.20 – 0.91 Alverca · expected total 2.11
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans toward the home side, whose recent form reads WDDDL, against an Alverca run of WWLDL. Expected goals point to a low-scoring, tight affair: Famalicao are projected at 1.1965 and Alverca at 0.9107, though Alverca's recent attacking output of 1.58 xG is notably higher than Famalicao's 1.16. No injuries are reported on either side, so both managers have full squads to choose from. The head-to-head is remarkably tight — the last three meetings produced 1-0, 1-0 and 1-2, all settled by a single goal.
The headline tip is a Famalicao home win at 49.4% probability, priced at 1.94. If you want a cushion, the double chance 1X lands at 70.5%. The model expects goals to be scarce: Under 2.5 comes in at 53.3% (odds 1.84), and BTTS No at 49.2% (odds 2.05) offers the more generous price. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 10.8%, with 2-0 at 8.71% and 2-1 at 7.93% behind it. Corners are also expected to stay low, with Under 9.5 at 53.7% and an expected 8.8.
The honest caveat: none of these edges are large. A 49.4% home win is barely better than a coin flip, and Alverca's superior recent xG suggests the away side can frustrate. Treat the unders and BTTS No as the steadier plays rather than the outright result.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Famalicao
Alverca
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Famalicao
Alverca
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Primeira Liga
Famalicao
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Alverca
Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Famalicao at home · Alverca away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Famalicao (home)
Alverca (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Alverca 1 win · 0 draws · Famalicao 2 wins · avg 1.7 goals · BTTS in 1 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Famalicao | 1–0 | Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Alverca | 1–0 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Alverca | 1–2 | Famalicao | Taça de Portugal |
📈 Recent Form
Famalicao
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Nacional | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 13/09 | Sporting CP | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 05/09 | Estrela | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 30/08 | GIL Vicente | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 23/08 | Santa Clara | Away | 0–1 | L |
Alverca
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Rio Ave | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Nacional | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 05/09 | SC Braga | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 29/08 | Santa Clara | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 22/08 | Sporting CP | Away | 1–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Primeira Liga
Famalicao #13 · 7 pts — Alverca #10 · 8 pts
Famalicao
Alverca
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Famalicao
Alverca
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho