Predictions → Portugal Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Estrela

Arouca
1:0
Full Time · 11 Oct 2026
Estrela

No upcoming fixture scheduled — showing the last meeting result and the pre-match predictions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions — pre-match vs actual

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdgeResult
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 48.5% — — — — ✅
Double Chance 1X 72% 72.8% — — — — ✅
BTTS Yes 83% 53.2% — — — — ❌
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 53.1% — — — — ❌
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.6% — — — — ❌
Corners O/U 9.5 (~? exp.) Under 9.5 64% 55.1% — — — — ❌

⚽ Model expected goals: Arouca 1.65 – 1.11 Estrela · expected total 2.76

Predictions made before kick-off, shown against the actual result. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

📈 Team Trends

Arouca

Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Estrela

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primeira Liga

Arouca

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Estrela

Best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%) Worst clean sheets (0)

Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Arouca at home · Estrela away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Arouca (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–1L
W 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Estrela (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–0L
W 1
D 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)2.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Arouca (home)Estrela (away)
W 2
L 1
W 1
D 2
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
2.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.30
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Arouca 3 wins · 1 draw · Estrela 2 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 6

3
1
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
19 Apr 2026 Arouca 1–0 Estrela Primeira Liga
07 Dec 2025 Estrela 3–1 Arouca Primeira Liga
19 Apr 2025 Arouca 1–0 Estrela Primeira Liga
09 Dec 2024 Estrela 2–1 Arouca Primeira Liga
05 May 2024 Arouca 0–0 Estrela Primeira Liga
28 Dec 2023 Estrela 1–4 Arouca Primeira Liga

📈 Recent Form

Arouca

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Sporting CP Away 2–2 D
13/09 Santa Clara Home 1–2 L
07/09 Estoril Away 0–0 D
29/08 Maritimo Home 2–1 W
23/08 FC Porto Away 0–2 L

Estrela

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Academico Viseu Home 0–2 L
14/09 Rio Ave Away 3–3 D
10/09 SC Braga Home 2–1 W
05/09 Famalicao Home 2–2 D
30/08 Nacional Away 3–2 W

📊 Season Comparison — Primeira Liga

Arouca #5 · 14 pts —  Estrela #9 · 10 pts

Arouca

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–2L
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.44
xG against (avg)0.80
Corners for (avg)2.70
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Estrela

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–2L
W 2
D 4
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards17
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.95
xG against (avg)0.78
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
AroucaEstrela
W 4
D 2
L 2
W 2
D 4
L 2
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.00
Clean sheets
3
0
Failed to score
2
1
Yellow cards
19
17
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
0.44
0.95
xG against (avg)
0.80
0.78
Corners for (avg)
2.70
4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Arouca

1
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Estrela

4
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws