Predictions → Portugal Primeira Liga

Estrela vs Casa Pia

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 14:30 UTC+3 • Round 9 • 🌧 20.6°C, 3 km/h, 1.2mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 85% 60.2% — — — —
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.4% — — — —
BTTS Yes 81% 48.6% — — — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47% — — — —
Correct Score 1-0 66% 8.9% — — — —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.4 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 53.9% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Estrela 1.79 – 0.90 Casa Pia · expected total 2.69

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Estrela host Casa Pia in Round 9 of the Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October 2026, and the table already tells a story of separation. Estrela sit 9th on 10 points from 8 games, while Casa Pia are 17th with just 4 points from the same number of matches. For the visitors, this is a chance to stop the slide; for Estrela, it is a fixture they are expected to control.

The model leans firmly toward the home side, giving Estrela a 60.2 percent win probability at 85 confidence. Recent form backs that up: Estrela have gone LDWDW across their last five, Casa Pia LWLDL. The expected goals split is stark, with Estrela at 1.7881 against Casa Pia's 0.8997, though recent xG readings of 1.36 for the hosts and 1.27 for the visitors suggest the gap may be narrower than the season numbers imply. Neither side reports injuries, so both should be at full strength.

The headline tip is a home win, and the double chance 1X at 79.4 percent is the safer route. Both teams to score lands at 48.6 percent, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 47 percent — both essentially coin flips. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 11.1 percent, followed by 2-0 at 10.9 and 2-1 at 9.81. Corners look interesting: Over 9.5 is priced at 53.9 percent with an expected 10.4.

The honest caveat is the head-to-head. Estrela have lost three of the last five meetings, including a 1-2 defeat in July 2026, so recent history warns against treating this as a formality.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Estrela

Form (last 5)
LAcademico Viseu (H) 0–2 · 20/09/2026DRio Ave (A) 3–3 · 14/09/2026WSC Braga (H) 2–1 · 10/09/2026DFamalicao (H) 2–2 · 05/09/2026WNacional (A) 3–2 · 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.95
xG against (recent avg)0.78
Elo strength rating1378

Casa Pia

Form (last 5)
LSanta Clara (H) 0–1 · 10/10/2026WEstoril (A) 2–1 · 20/09/2026LFC Porto (H) 1–4 · 12/09/2026DVitória SC (A) 0–0 · 06/09/2026LMoreirense (H) 0–1 · 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.40
Goals conceded (season avg)2.30
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.27
xG against (recent avg)1.63
Elo strength rating1339
EstrelaCasa Pia
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
0.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.00
2.30
Win streak (best this season)
1
0
xG for (recent avg)
0.95
1.27
xG against (recent avg)
0.78
1.63
Elo strength rating
1378
1339

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Estrela

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Casa Pia

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primeira Liga

Estrela

Best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%) Worst clean sheets (0)

Casa Pia

Worst attack (0.40 goals/game) Worst defence (2.30 conceded/game)

Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Estrela at home · Casa Pia away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Estrela (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Casa Pia (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Estrela (home)Casa Pia (away)
W 1
D 2
L 1
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.9%
2–0
8.7%
2–1
7.9%
3–0
5.2%
3–1
4.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Casa Pia 4 wins · 1 draw · Estrela 5 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10

4
1
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Jul 2026 Estrela 1–2 Casa Pia Friendlies Clubs
20 Mar 2026 Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia Primeira Liga
01 Nov 2025 Casa Pia 3–5 Estrela Primeira Liga
09 Feb 2025 Casa Pia 1–0 Estrela Primeira Liga
31 Aug 2024 Estrela 0–1 Casa Pia Primeira Liga
08 Mar 2024 Estrela 3–1 Casa Pia Primeira Liga
08 Oct 2023 Casa Pia 0–1 Estrela Primeira Liga
15 Jul 2023 Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia Friendlies Clubs
23 Apr 2022 Casa Pia 3–0 Estrela Segunda Liga
13 Dec 2021 Estrela 1–0 Casa Pia Segunda Liga

📈 Recent Form

Estrela

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Academico Viseu Home 0–2 L
14/09 Rio Ave Away 3–3 D
10/09 SC Braga Home 2–1 W
05/09 Famalicao Home 2–2 D
30/08 Nacional Away 3–2 W

Casa Pia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Santa Clara Home 0–1 L
20/09 Estoril Away 2–1 W
12/09 FC Porto Home 1–4 L
06/09 Vitória SC Away 0–0 D
30/08 Moreirense Home 0–1 L

📊 Season Comparison — Primeira Liga

Estrela #9 · 10 pts —  Casa Pia #17 · 4 pts

Estrela

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–2L
W 2
D 4
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards17
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.95
xG against (avg)0.78
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Casa Pia

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–6L
W 1
D 1
L 6
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score5
Yellow cards15
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.27
xG against (avg)1.63
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1
EstrelaCasa Pia
W 2
D 4
L 2
W 1
D 1
L 6
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
0.40
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
2.30
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
5
Yellow cards
17
15
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.95
1.27
xG against (avg)
0.78
1.63
Corners for (avg)
4.80
4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Estrela

4
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
1
scored conceded

Casa Pia

2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws