Estoril vs Moreirense
Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 • 15:30 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota • ☀️ 17.7°C, 6 km/h clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 74% | 31.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | 67% | 66.1% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 81% | 48.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83% | 52.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 65% | 8.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 69% | 28.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.5 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 66% | 57% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Estoril 1.08 – 1.18 Moreirense · expected total 2.26
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans away. Moreirense, despite their own patchy LDWLL run, are given a 31.4 percent win probability with confidence at 74, and the double chance covering draw or away lands at 66.1 percent. Expected goals tell a low-scoring story: Estoril's recent attacking output sits at 0.82 against a match expectation of 1.0816, Moreirense at 0.98 against 1.179. That points to Under 2.5 at 52.3 percent, with BTTS No at 48.3 percent. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 8.8 percent, followed by 1-2 and 0-2, so the correct-score market is where the away lean concentrates. Corners look quiet too, with an expected 7.5 and Under 9.5 at 57 percent.
The draw is worth flagging separately at 28.2 percent with confidence 69, and the H2H offers a warning: four of the last five meetings produced three goals or more, including a 3-3 and two 2-2s. The honest caveat is that Estoril's desperation could force an open game, and with no injuries listed for either side, the low-goal read is a model call rather than a certainty.
Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Estoril
Moreirense
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Estoril
Moreirense
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Primeira Liga
Estoril
Moreirense
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Estoril at home · Moreirense away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Estoril (home)
Moreirense (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Estoril 2 wins · 3 draws · Moreirense 5 wins · avg 2.9 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr 2026 | Moreirense | 1–0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Estoril | 3–3 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 11 May 2025 | Moreirense | 2–2 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 28 Dec 2024 | Estoril | 2–2 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 18 May 2024 | Moreirense | 2–1 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Estoril | 1–3 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 07 May 2022 | Estoril | 1–0 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 28 Dec 2021 | Moreirense | 1–0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 12 Feb 2018 | Moreirense | 1–2 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 10 Sep 2017 | Estoril | 0–2 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
📈 Recent Form
Estoril
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Academico Viseu | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Casa Pia | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 14/09 | SC Braga | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 07/09 | Arouca | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 31/08 | Benfica | Away | 1–2 | L |
Moreirense
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | GIL Vicente | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Vitória SC | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 14/09 | Maritimo | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 09/09 | Benfica | Home | 0–4 | L |
| 04/09 | FC Porto | Away | 1–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Primeira Liga
Estoril #18 · 2 pts — Moreirense #12 · 8 pts
Estoril
Moreirense
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Estoril
Moreirense
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws