Predictions β†’ Portugal Primeira Liga

GIL Vicente vs FC Porto

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ 🌦 14.5Β°C, 5 km/h, 0.8mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 78% 39.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 71% 71.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 83% 53.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 50.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-2 62% 7.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 53.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: GIL Vicente 1.41 – 1.68 FC Porto Β· expected total 3.09

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Gil Vicente host FC Porto in Round 9 of the Primeira Liga, and the stakes are clear: the visitors sit top of the table on 24 points from 8 games, while the home side are 7th on 11 points from 7. Porto arrive off a WWWWL run in their last five, whereas Gil Vicente have stumbled to WDLLD.

The model leans toward the away side, giving Porto a 39.9 percent win probability at 78 percent confidence, with the double chance covering 1 and 2 at 71.3 percent. Expected goals tell a similar story: Porto carry an away figure of 1.6825 against Gil Vicente's 1.4106, and recent xG reads 1.68 for the visitors versus 1.52 for the hosts. Both teams to score lands at 53.1 percent, while Over 2.5 goals sits narrowly above the line at 50.1 percent. The most likely correct score is 1-2 at 7.1 percent, followed by 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 and 0-3. Corners point Under 9.5 at 53.8 percent, with an expected 8.7.

The value question is whether Porto's dominance is fully priced. Their recent head-to-head record is mixed: Gil Vicente won 1-0 in July 2026, but Porto have taken 3-0, 0-2, 3-1 and 3-0 in the other four meetings. With no injuries listed for either side, the main risk is Gil Vicente's habit of raising their game at home, as that July result proves. Back Porto, but respect the upset potential.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

GIL Vicente

Form (last 5)
WMoreirense (A) 1–0 Β· 09/10/2026DMaritimo (H) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LBenfica (A) 1–3 Β· 13/09/2026LAcademico Viseu (H) 0–1 Β· 06/09/2026DFamalicao (A) 0–0 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.83
xG against (recent avg)0.85
Elo strength rating1562

FC Porto

Form (last 5)
WMaritimo (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WDeportivo La Coruna (A) 3–1 Β· 02/10/2026WBenfica (H) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026WCasa Pia (A) 4–1 Β· 12/09/2026LManchester City (H) 0–2 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.60
Goals conceded (season avg)0.40
Win streak (best this season)7
xG for (recent avg)1.68
xG against (recent avg)1.30
Elo strength rating1757
GIL VicenteFC Porto
WMaritimo (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WDeportivo La Coruna (A) 3–1 Β· 02/10/2026WBenfica (H) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026WCasa Pia (A) 4–1 Β· 12/09/2026LManchester City (H) 0–2 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.90
2.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.70
0.40
Win streak (best this season)
2
7
xG for (recent avg)
0.83
1.68
xG against (recent avg)
0.85
1.30
Elo strength rating
1562
1757

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

GIL Vicente

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
3/6

FC Porto

Won 4 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Primeira Liga

GIL Vicente

3rd best defence (0.70 conceded/game) Worst Over 2.5 rate (17%) Best clean sheets (4)

FC Porto

2nd best attack (2.60 goals/game) Best defence (0.40 conceded/game) Best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%) Best clean sheets (4)

Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

GIL Vicente at home Β· FC Porto away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

GIL Vicente (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1

FC Porto (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–0L
W 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)3.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
GIL Vicente (home)FC Porto (away)
W 2
D 1
L 1
W 3
Played
4
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
3.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.50
0.30
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
7.1%
0–1
5.1%
0–2
5%
1–3
4%
0–3
2.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

FC Porto 6 wins Β· 1 draw Β· GIL Vicente 3 wins Β· avg 2.5 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

6
1
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
22 Jul 2026 GIL Vicente 1–0 FC Porto Friendlies Clubs
26 Jan 2026 FC Porto 3–0 GIL Vicente Primeira Liga
18 Aug 2025 GIL Vicente 0–2 FC Porto Primeira Liga
19 Jan 2025 GIL Vicente 3–1 FC Porto Primeira Liga
10 Aug 2024 FC Porto 3–0 GIL Vicente Primeira Liga
25 Feb 2024 GIL Vicente 1–1 FC Porto Primeira Liga
23 Sep 2023 FC Porto 2–1 GIL Vicente Primeira Liga
26 Feb 2023 FC Porto 1–2 GIL Vicente Primeira Liga
21 Dec 2022 FC Porto 2–0 GIL Vicente TaΓ§a da Liga
03 Sep 2022 GIL Vicente 0–2 FC Porto Primeira Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

GIL Vicente

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Moreirense Away 1–0 W
19/09 Maritimo Home 1–1 D
13/09 Benfica Away 1–3 L
06/09 Academico Viseu Home 0–1 L
30/08 Famalicao Away 0–0 D

FC Porto

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Maritimo Away 2–1 W
02/10 Deportivo La Coruna Away 3–1 W
20/09 Benfica Home 3–1 W
12/09 Casa Pia Away 4–1 W
08/09 Manchester City Home 0–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Primeira Liga

GIL Vicente #7 Β· 11 pts β€”  FC Porto #1 Β· 24 pts

GIL Vicente

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–2L
W 3
D 2
L 2
Played7
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards15
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.83
xG against (avg)0.85
Corners for (avg)3.30
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

FC Porto

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–0D–0L
W 8
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.40
Clean sheets4
Failed to score0
Yellow cards6
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.68
xG against (avg)1.30
Corners for (avg)5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0
GIL VicenteFC Porto
W 3
D 2
L 2
W 8
Played
7
8
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
2.60
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
0.40
Clean sheets
4
4
Failed to score
2
0
Yellow cards
15
6
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.83
1.68
xG against (avg)
0.85
1.30
Corners for (avg)
3.30
5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/0
3/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

GIL Vicente

1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
2
scored conceded

FC Porto

0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
61-75
2
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primeira Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws