Vitória SC vs Maritimo
Next match: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 • 19:45 UTC+3 • Round 9 • 🌤 15.6°C, 2 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 83% | 55.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 79% | 83.1% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 83% | 53.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 86% | 59.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 80% | 17.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 62% | 53.3% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Vitória SC 1.26 – 0.51 Maritimo · expected total 1.77
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans clearly toward the home side. Vitória are priced at 55.5 percent to win, with 83 percent confidence, and the double chance of a home win or draw rises to 83.1 percent. The underlying numbers back that up: the home side's recent expected goals sit at 1.74 against Maritimo's 0.65, and the season-long attacking figures of 1.2583 versus 0.5131 tell the same story of a blunt away attack. Form is poor on both sides — Vitória's DLDLW against Maritimo's LDLLL — and the head-to-head record is overwhelmingly home-flavoured, with Vitória winning four of the last five meetings.
Goals look scarce. Under 2.5 carries 59.4 percent, both teams to score "No" sits at 53.1 percent, and the correct score market points to 1-0 at 17.4 percent, with 2-0 next at 13.47. Corners are also expected to stay low, with an expected 8.9 and Under 9.5 at 53.3 percent. The value angle is the double chance and the unders, where the model's numbers look stronger than a straight home win. The honest caveat: Vitória's own form is DLDLW, so backing them at 55.5 percent carries real risk if the home attack misfires again.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Vitória SC
Maritimo
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Vitória SC
Maritimo
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Primeira Liga
Vitória SC
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Maritimo
Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Vitória SC at home · Maritimo away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Vitória SC (home)
Maritimo (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Maritimo 0 wins · 2 draws · Vitória SC 8 wins · avg 1.5 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2023 | Maritimo | 1–2 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Nov 2022 | Vitória SC | 1–0 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Mar 2022 | Maritimo | 0–1 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 22 Oct 2021 | Vitória SC | 2–1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 16 May 2021 | Maritimo | 0–0 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Vitória SC | 1–0 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 19 Jul 2020 | Vitória SC | 1–0 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 12 Jan 2020 | Maritimo | 0–0 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 04 Mar 2019 | Vitória SC | 1–0 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 06 Oct 2018 | Maritimo | 1–3 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
📈 Recent Form
Vitória SC
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Moreirense | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | Academico Viseu | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Casa Pia | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 31/08 | SC Braga | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 23/08 | Nacional | Home | 1–0 | W |
Maritimo
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FC Porto | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 19/09 | GIL Vicente | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 14/09 | Moreirense | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 05/09 | Benfica | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 29/08 | Arouca | Away | 1–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Primeira Liga
Vitória SC #15 · 5 pts — Maritimo #11 · 8 pts
Vitória SC
Maritimo
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Vitória SC
Maritimo
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws