Predictions → Portugal Primeira Liga

Rio Ave vs Nacional

Rio Ave
3:2
Full Time · 11 Oct 2026
Nacional

No upcoming fixture scheduled — showing the last meeting result and the pre-match predictions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions — pre-match vs actual

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdgeResult
Match Result (1X2) Home 78% 39.6% — — — — ✅
Double Chance 1X 71% 71.6% — — — — ✅
BTTS No 82% 50.9% — — — — ❌
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 52.2% — — — — ❌
Correct Score 1-0 69% 10.8% — — — — ❌
Corners O/U 9.5 (~? exp.) Under 9.5 65% 56.1% — — — — ❌

⚽ Model expected goals: Rio Ave 1.24 – 0.90 Nacional · expected total 2.14

Predictions made before kick-off, shown against the actual result. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

📈 Team Trends

Rio Ave

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Nacional

Lost 6 in a row Winless 6
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primeira Liga

Rio Ave

3rd best Over 2.5 rate (67%)

Nacional

Worst defence (2.30 conceded/game) 3rd best Over 2.5 rate (67%)

Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Rio Ave at home · Nacional away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Rio Ave (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Nacional (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–3L
D 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Rio Ave (home)Nacional (away)
W 1
D 1
L 2
D 1
L 3
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.80
2.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
2
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Nacional 2 wins · 4 draws · Rio Ave 4 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

2
4
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
25 Jan 2026 Nacional 4–0 Rio Ave Primeira Liga
17 Aug 2025 Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional Primeira Liga
10 May 2025 Nacional 3–3 Rio Ave Primeira Liga
29 Dec 2024 Rio Ave 2–1 Nacional Primeira Liga
31 Jul 2024 Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional Friendlies Clubs
10 Apr 2022 Nacional 2–0 Rio Ave Segunda Liga
28 Nov 2021 Rio Ave 1–0 Nacional Segunda Liga
19 May 2021 Nacional 1–2 Rio Ave Primeira Liga
05 Feb 2021 Rio Ave 0–0 Nacional Primeira Liga
17 Mar 2019 Nacional 0–1 Rio Ave Primeira Liga

📈 Recent Form

Rio Ave

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Nacional Home 3–2 W
19/09 Alverca Away 0–1 L
14/09 Estrela Home 3–3 D
06/09 Santa Clara Away 0–4 L
28/08 Sporting CP Home 0–4 L

Nacional

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Rio Ave Away 2–3 L
19/09 Famalicao Home 0–4 L
12/09 Alverca Home 1–3 L
05/09 Sporting CP Away 0–2 L
30/08 Estrela Home 2–3 L

📊 Season Comparison — Primeira Liga

Rio Ave #14 · 7 pts —  Nacional #16 · 4 pts

Rio Ave

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–5L
W 2
D 1
L 5
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.10
Clean sheets1
Failed to score5
Yellow cards14
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.60
xG against (avg)2.16
Corners for (avg)2.90
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Nacional

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–6L
W 1
D 1
L 6
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards11
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.08
xG against (avg)1.98
Corners for (avg)3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Rio AveNacional
W 2
D 1
L 5
W 1
D 1
L 6
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
2.10
2.30
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
5
3
Yellow cards
14
11
Red cards
2
1
xG for (avg)
0.60
1.08
xG against (avg)
2.16
1.98
Corners for (avg)
2.90
3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Rio Ave

4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
1
scored conceded

Nacional

3
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws