Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Alaves host Atletico Madrid at Mendizorrotza on Saturday with real stakes at both ends of the early table. The visitors sit 2nd on 16 points from 7 games, while Alaves are 6th on 11 points from 7 — a strong start they will want to protect in front of their own crowd.

The model leans toward the home side here, giving Alaves a 39.5 percent win probability at 76 confidence, with the draw priced at 30 percent. Recent form is mixed: Alaves have gone DLLWW, Atletico WWWLL. The expected goals tell a similar story — Alaves carry 1.2596 against Atletico's 1.0911, and over recent matches that splits 1.39 to 0.92 in the hosts' favour. Both squads are depleted, with six Alaves names out and seven for Atletico, including A. Sorloth and R. Le Normand.

The headline tips are a home win and the 1-2 double chance at 69.1 percent. Both teams to score lands on No at 48.3 percent, and Over 2.5 sits at 45.8 percent — hardly convincing. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 10.7 percent, followed by 2-1 at 8.25 and 2-0 at 7.56. Corners offer a cleaner angle: Over 9.5 at 52.3 percent against an expected 9.8.

Value may hide in the home win if bookmakers price Atletico on reputation rather than this snapshot, and the draw at 30 percent is worth a look given the H2H — three of the last five meetings produced 1-0, 1-1 and 0-0. The honest caveat: a 39.5 percent home probability is far from dominant, and Atletico's quality plus Alaves' six absentees mean this could easily flip.