Predictions β†’ Spain La Liga

Celta Vigo vs Alaves

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:15 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Municipal de BalaΓ­dos β€’ β˜€οΈ 19.8Β°C, 13 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 82% 51.2% 2.08 1xBet 48.9% +2.3 pp
Double Chance 1X 76% 78.6% 1.30 1xBet 75.8% +2.8 pp
BTTS No 81% 48.7% 1.91 Bet365 50% -1.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.1% 1.79 1xBet 54.9% -5.8 pp
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.5% 7.00 Bet365 7.2% +2.3 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.2 exp.) Under 9.5 64% 55.2% 1.73 Bet365 53.6% +1.6 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.69 – 0.88 Alaves Β· expected total 2.57

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Celta Vigo host Alaves at BalaΓ­dos on Sunday with both sides stuck in the wrong half of the table and desperate for a spark. Celta sit 9th on 8 points from 8 games, Alaves 7th on 11, so a home win drags the hosts right back into the mid-table scrap.

The model leans heavily on Celta's attacking edge. Their expected goals come in at 1.6908 against Alaves' 0.8817, and recent form backs it up: 1.63 xG for the hosts, 0.92 for the visitors. Celta's last five read WLDDD, Alaves LDLLW, and the head-to-head is wild β€” a 3-4 Alaves win in March, a 0-1 Celta win in November, a 1-1, a 2-1, a 3-0. Goals have flowed, yet the numbers point the other way this time.

The headline tip is a home win at 51.2% probability, priced at 2.08 β€” that's the value pocket. Double chance 1X lands at 78.6% for those wanting cover. Both teams to score is a No at 48.7% (1.91), Under 2.5 goals at 49.1% (1.79), and corners Under 9.5 at 55.2% with an expected 8.2. The correct-score model likes 1-0 at 9.5%, with 1-0 (11.79), 2-0 (10.93) and 2-1 (9.64) topping the charts.

The caveat is real: Celta's injury list is enormous, ten names including Aspas, Iglesias and Starfelt, while Alaves are missing six. A depleted Celta at 2.08 is the bet, but the squad depth risk is genuine.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Celta Vigo

Form (last 5)
WRacing Santander (H) 5–0 Β· 19/09/2026LOmonia Nicosia (A) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026DMalaga (H) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026DGetafe (A) 1–1 Β· 07/09/2026DReal Sociedad (A) 0–0 Β· 03/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.43
xG against (recent avg)0.48
Elo strength rating1551
Players out10

Alaves

Form (last 5)
LAtletico Madrid (H) 1–2 Β· 10/10/2026DAthletic Club (A) 0–0 Β· 19/09/2026LValencia (H) 0–1 Β· 15/09/2026LRacing Santander (A) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026WOsasuna (H) 5–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.92
xG against (recent avg)1.44
Elo strength rating1417
Players out6
Celta VigoAlaves
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.90
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.43
0.92
xG against (recent avg)
0.48
1.44
Elo strength rating
1551
1417
Players out
10
6

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Celta Vigo

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Alaves

Winless 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” La Liga

Celta Vigo

Best defence (0.90 conceded/game) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%) 3rd best clean sheets (3)

Alaves

3rd best defence (1.00 conceded/game) 3rd best clean sheets (3)

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Celta Vigo at home Β· Alaves away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Celta Vigo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

Alaves (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–1L
D 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Celta Vigo (home)Alaves (away)
W 1
D 1
L 2
D 2
L 1
Played
4
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.5%
2–0
8.8%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
5%
3–1
4.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Alaves 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Celta Vigo 6 wins Β· avg 3.1 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

2
2
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
22 Mar 2026 Celta Vigo 3–4 Alaves La Liga
22 Nov 2025 Alaves 0–1 Celta Vigo La Liga
27 Jan 2025 Alaves 1–1 Celta Vigo La Liga
16 Aug 2024 Celta Vigo 2–1 Alaves La Liga
27 Apr 2024 Alaves 3–0 Celta Vigo La Liga
28 Sep 2023 Celta Vigo 1–1 Alaves La Liga
07 May 2022 Celta Vigo 4–0 Alaves La Liga
27 Nov 2021 Alaves 1–2 Celta Vigo La Liga
04 Apr 2021 Alaves 1–3 Celta Vigo La Liga
20 Dec 2020 Celta Vigo 2–0 Alaves La Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Celta Vigo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Racing Santander Home 5–0 W
16/09 Omonia Nicosia Away 0–1 L
13/09 Malaga Home 1–1 D
07/09 Getafe Away 1–1 D
03/09 Real Sociedad Away 0–0 D

Alaves

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Atletico Madrid Home 1–2 L
19/09 Athletic Club Away 0–0 D
15/09 Valencia Home 0–1 L
12/09 Racing Santander Away 1–2 L
06/09 Osasuna Home 5–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” La Liga

Celta Vigo #9 Β· 8 pts β€”  Alaves #7 Β· 11 pts

Celta Vigo

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–5D–2L
W 1
D 5
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards11
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.43
xG against (avg)0.48
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Alaves

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–3L
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2
Yellow cards14
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.92
xG against (avg)1.44
Corners for (avg)3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Celta VigoAlaves
W 1
D 5
L 2
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.00
Clean sheets
3
3
Failed to score
3
2
Yellow cards
11
14
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.43
0.92
xG against (avg)
0.48
1.44
Corners for (avg)
4.60
3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Celta Vigo

0-15
1
3
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Alaves

0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Celta Vigo

  • ❌ C. Perez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Vecino β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ B. Iglesias β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Febas β€” Ribs Injury
  • ❌ M. Alonso β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Antanon β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. El Abdellaoui β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Roman β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ C. Starfelt β€” Injury
  • ❌ I. Aspas β€” Muscle Injury

Alaves

  • ❌ F. Garces β€” Suspended
  • ❌ T. Mendes β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Valentini β€” Red Card
  • ❌ T. Martinez β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ M. Rodriguez β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Manas β€” Injury

More: La Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws