Athletic Club vs Getafe

Athletic Club host Getafe at San Mamés on Sunday with both sides stuck on 8 points, though the visitors have played 8 games to Athletic's 6. That gap in fixtures makes this a genuine opportunity for the home side to pull clear of the early-season logjam, with Athletic sitting 10th and Getafe 14th.

The model leans heavily on recent attacking output. Athletic's recent expected goals figure of 1.77 dwarfs Getafe's 0.68, and the season-long expected goals split reads 1.3323 for the hosts against just 0.5365 for the visitors. Form backs it up: Athletic have gone DDWWL, while Getafe arrive on LWLDD. Both squads are badly depleted, with Athletic missing a long list including N. Williams, O. Sancet and G. Guruzeta, and Getafe without the likes of Juanmi, B. Mayoral and Kiko Femenia. The head-to-head is a warning, though: Getafe won the last meeting 2-0 and also took a 1-0 at San Mamés in October 2025.

The headline tip is a home win at 57.6 percent with 84 percent confidence, and the double chance 1X sits at 83.3 percent. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 55.3 percent, while both teams to score lands on No at 56.8 percent. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 16.6 percent, with 2-0 next in the correct-score list. Corners point to Under 9.5 at 52.4 percent, with an expected 9.3.

The honest risk here is Athletic's injury list and that recent H2H record — Getafe have won two of the last five meetings, and a low-scoring away performance is exactly their template.