Predictions β†’ Spain La Liga

Valencia vs Athletic Club

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Estadio de Mestalla β€’ 🌧 20.6Β°C, 3 km/h, 1.1mm rain

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 54.6% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 51.3% Β· Edge +6.1 pp
Best odds 1.95 William Hill 1.95Bet365 1.95Betano 1.95
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 1.7% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 79% 43.2% 2.18 1xBet 46.6% -3.4 pp
Double Chance X2 72% 72.5% 1.34 1xBet 73.6% -1.1 pp
BTTS No 84% 54.1% 1.95 William Hill 48% +6.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 54.7% 1.86 1xBet 53.4% +1.3 pp
Correct Score 0-1 72% 12.3% 7.50 Bet365 6.7% +5.6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.2% 2.10 Bet365 44.4% +7.8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Valencia 0.81 – 1.14 Athletic Club Β· expected total 1.95

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Valencia host Athletic Club at the Estadio de Mestalla on Saturday night with the two clubs in very different moods. The home side sit 19th on 5 points from 8 games, while Athletic arrive 10th on 8 points from 6, and the recent head-to-head record leans away: three of the last five meetings went to the visitors, including 0-1 and 1-2 wins.

The model sees a low-scoring, away-leaning contest. Valencia's recent expected goals sit at just 0.91 against an away figure of 1.77, and the goal projections of 0.8103 for the hosts versus 1.1432 for Athletic underline the gap. Form reads DLWLL for Valencia and DDWWL for Athletic, and the injury list is brutal on both sides β€” twelve absentees for Valencia, eleven for Athletic, including N. Williams and O. Sancet.

The headline tip is an away win at 43.2 percent, priced at 2.18, with a confidence of 79. The double chance X2 lands at 72.5 percent. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 54.7 percent (odds 1.86), and BTTS No at 54.1 percent (1.95). The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 14.9 percent, with 0-2 at 9.27 and 1-2 at 7.51. Corners are expected to edge over 9.5 at 52.2 percent, with an expected 9.6.

The honest caveat: both squads are heavily depleted, so lineups could shift the picture sharply, and a 43.2 percent away probability is far from dominant β€” the draw remains a live threat.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Valencia

Form (last 5)
DRacing Santander (A) 2–2 Β· 11/10/2026LReal Sociedad (H) 2–3 Β· 20/09/2026WAlaves (A) 1–0 Β· 15/09/2026LSevilla (A) 0–1 Β· 11/09/2026LBarcelona (H) 0–5 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.91
xG against (recent avg)2.01
Elo strength rating1459
Players out12

Athletic Club

Form (last 5)
DAlaves (H) 0–0 Β· 19/09/2026DElche (H) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026WAtletico Madrid (H) 3–0 Β· 05/09/2026WCelta Vigo (A) 2–0 Β· 30/08/2026LBarcelona (A) 0–2 Β· 27/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.77
xG against (recent avg)1.04
Elo strength rating1512
Players out11
ValenciaAthletic Club
DAlaves (H) 0–0 Β· 19/09/2026DElche (H) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026WAtletico Madrid (H) 3–0 Β· 05/09/2026WCelta Vigo (A) 2–0 Β· 30/08/2026LBarcelona (A) 0–2 Β· 27/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.80
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.91
1.77
xG against (recent avg)
2.01
1.04
Elo strength rating
1459
1512
Players out
12
11

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Valencia

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Athletic Club

Unbeaten 4
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” La Liga

Valencia

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Athletic Club

3rd best defence (1.00 conceded/game)

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Valencia at home Β· Athletic Club away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Valencia (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–3L
D 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3

Athletic Club (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L
W 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Valencia (home)Athletic Club (away)
D 1
L 3
W 1
L 1
Played
4
2
Goals scored (avg)
0.50
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.30
1.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
3
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
12.3%
0–2
7.7%
1–2
6.2%
0–3
2.9%
1–3
2.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Athletic Club 6 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Valencia 3 wins Β· avg 2.1 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

6
1
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
10 May 2026 Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia La Liga
04 Feb 2026 Valencia 1–2 Athletic Club Copa del Rey
20 Sep 2025 Valencia 2–0 Athletic Club La Liga
18 May 2025 Valencia 0–1 Athletic Club La Liga
28 Aug 2024 Athletic Club 1–0 Valencia La Liga
20 Jan 2024 Valencia 1–0 Athletic Club La Liga
29 Oct 2023 Athletic Club 2–2 Valencia La Liga
11 Feb 2023 Valencia 1–2 Athletic Club La Liga
26 Jan 2023 Valencia 1–3 Athletic Club Copa del Rey
21 Aug 2022 Athletic Club 1–0 Valencia La Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Valencia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Racing Santander Away 2–2 D
20/09 Real Sociedad Home 2–3 L
15/09 Alaves Away 1–0 W
11/09 Sevilla Away 0–1 L
06/09 Barcelona Home 0–5 L

Athletic Club

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Alaves Home 0–0 D
12/09 Elche Home 1–1 D
05/09 Atletico Madrid Home 3–0 W
30/08 Celta Vigo Away 2–0 W
27/08 Barcelona Away 0–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” La Liga

Valencia #19 Β· 5 pts β€”  Athletic Club #10 Β· 8 pts

Valencia

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–5L
W 1
D 2
L 5
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets2
Failed to score4
Yellow cards17
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.91
xG against (avg)2.01
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Athletic Club

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–2L
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2
Yellow cards12
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.77
xG against (avg)1.04
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
ValenciaAthletic Club
W 1
D 2
L 5
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played
8
6
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.00
Clean sheets
2
3
Failed to score
4
2
Yellow cards
17
12
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.91
1.77
xG against (avg)
2.01
1.04
Corners for (avg)
4.80
5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Valencia

1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
1
scored conceded

Athletic Club

1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Valencia

  • ❌ S. Canos β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Copete β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ D. Foulquier β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Lopez β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Mari β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ L. Rioja β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. De Haas β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ P. Maffeo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ G. Rodriguez β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ U. Sadiq β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Diakhaby β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Tarrega β€” Hamstring Injury

Athletic Club

  • ❌ U. Egiluz β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Gorosabel β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ B. Prados Diaz β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ N. Serrano β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ U. Vencedor β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Vivian β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ P. Canales β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Djalo β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ G. Guruzeta β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ O. Sancet β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ N. Williams β€” Thigh Injury

More: La Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws